TPGK and fd vs flop aggro

[Profish2285]

Main villain runs at 29/3/2.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-FullTilt.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($91.75)
MP ($52.80)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($49.45)</font>
Button ($49.30)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($52.15)</font>
BB ($146.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.75</font>, BB calls $2, CO calls $2.

Flop: ($7.75) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, BB calls $6, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $16.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero....

[Nick Royale]

I think I just call and re-ev. Don't mind keeping BB in the pot, most often we're drawing to 9-11 outs vs CO.

[Profish2285]

Are you going to c/f a turn blank?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you going to c/f a turn blank?

[/ QUOTE ]
If BB folds and CO pushes we're getting 2.5:1 so it seems like we need to fold UI in that case. CO doesn't seem like the player to raise the flop with a fd. Do you agree that's a really small part of his range? I'm asking because I'm not that familiar to how the players play in 50nl, seems like a fold to me.

However that's the worst case scenario for us, depending on bet size on the turn and how BB react to the flop raise we'll probably be able to see a river a fair amount.

Re-raising the flop will be +ev, but if we can narrow down COs range I think calling the flop is better.

[Profish2285]

Honestly its 50/50. Sometimes players with those stats raise draws sometimes they dont. I dont have any reads on him so Im unsure. I think it could definitely be a king though obviously. My default was to push fwiw.

[ispiked]

Would he really be raising a draw in a multi-way pot like this? I rarely raise draws, but I'd be much less inclined to do so in a multi-way pot.

If villain does have a set here (which I think is the case a lot of the time), he's going to slow it down a bit if we just call and the flush hits on the turn, right? Wouldn't this be an argument for getting it in on the flop?

[Profish2285]

Im thinking this is a fair range for him. Assuming I can fold out strong kings once in a while and the dead money in the pot this push should be pretty close either way I think.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,660 games 0.554 secs 60,758 games/sec

Board: 9s 3s Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.673% 42.39% 04.29% 14267 1443.00 { KsJs }
Hand 1: 53.327% 49.04% 04.29% 16507 1443.00 { 9c9d, 9c9h, 9d9h, 3c3d, 3c3h, 3d3h, AcKc, AhKh, AsQs, AsTs, KcQc, KhQh, KcJc, KhJh, Kc9c, Kh9h, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AsKc, AsKh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, Kc9d, Kc9h, Kc9s, Kh9c, Kh9d, Kh9s }


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[peetar69]

wow the BB is/ was (before your shove) in there too. This must be why they say "dont play a hand if you dont know what to do if you hit it". I smell 33 from the CO (after thinking about it for a while). I'm switching over from limit, and I know I blow at this variation of the game. I'm NOT claiming that this is the correct play, but just calling would put over 1/3rd of my stack in... So it all would get in the middle now.

[Maneh]

i think we have to shove here.

Villain is passive PF, but his AF is 2.

we have a good hand and a good draw if we are behind. I dont think the villain range is 33 and 99 only.