interesting turn decision

[KitCloudkicker]

full 10 game that is not so good.

folded to me in hijack, I raise AdJd, CO (poster) calls, SB (bad, loose player) calls, BB calls. 4 to flop.

Flop is 976 two diamonds. checked to me, i bet, all call.

River Ah. SB leads. BB folds.

SB's range, in my estimation:

A9, A7, A6, AT, A8, A5, AQ, AK, AJ

Remember that I have the CO behind me. And I still have my nut FD.

for purposes of this hand you can assume that he will 3 bet me with all better hands on the turn if i raise.

Raise or call?

[elindauer]

I have you ahead of 72% of villain's range. (http://www.ericlindauer.com/eric/range.html?board=9d+7d+6h+Ah&dead_cards=Ad+Jd&high light=0-&range=A9%2C+A7%2C+A6%2C+AT%2C+A8%2C+A5%2C+AQ%2C+A K%2C+AJ&range.auth=a35337dd72cd767a485d03070280a98 3) You hold one of the stronger hands in your range. Given that, you can certainly raise from a game theory POV and not be exploited.

That only leaves a question of whether you can exploit your opponents by just calling. Hmm... with the 3rd guy in there, you tend to want to raise to make him pay to draw out. It sure looks like you have him beaten and most likely he's drawing to a straight.

On the other hand, raising exposes you to a 3-bet from both the first player and the 3rd player (who could easily be on a slowplay with a set or have just turned two pair).

Let's check pokerstove... vs 1st villain's range, you actually only hold a slight equity edge, having only 54% equity. Given that you are offering 2:1, you probably would prefer to just call.

How bad is it to just call if the 3rd player is still drawing? Well, maybe not that bad. Some of his outs also make you a flush, and given that he acts after you he may end up losing 3 big bets. Further, when you are ahead you have to dodge straight outs anyways... the 1st player and 3rd player may share the same draw, in which case you are happy to let the 3rd player in!

So, in conclussion, it seems really close either way. I can't find enough information to make a clear case for either side. I think though that you probably do better to just call.

good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

Upon further reflection, it seems to me that villain's donk skews his hands toward the pair + straight draw hands. If he really had a big hand, most players would check and go for a check-raise.

Given that, I think I'm starting to lean toward a raise. It may be six of one, half a dozen of the other though.

-eric

[Bob T.]

With the flush draw, I guess that getting threebet isn't a disaster.

There are some good scenarios out here, also, that you make a bunch of money, if the hijack is on a draw, that he can't let go of, like an 8, or maybe smaller diamonds, you are probably at least even equity, even if you get threebet. If he has a weaker draw, I don't think that letting him stick around to catch his gutshot in a growing pot can be right.

Throw in the possibility that you are ahead anyway, and I think that the raise here is easy. I think that you have to include at least a 5%, and maybe higher chance that part of the SB's range is a brain aneurysm, and he just spasmed and bet out. ( frequently, I find that that is the best explanation for some of the plays I see)

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that you have to include at least a 5%, and maybe higher chance that part of the SB's range is a brain aneurysm

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. I'm more and more coming to the conclussion that raising is the right play, though I don't think you lose a lot by just calling. Since raising is probably the "default" play as well (which is the play you choose when you have doubt), I vote raise.

In practice, I tend to just call in spots like this, but perhaps I'm going to stop that.

-eric