TPGK oop

[Profish2285]

No reads or stats on villain. I was thinking about c/c as to snap off whiffed draws but my hand takes away alot of drawing outs so it made me not want to c/c any large bet.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-FullTilt.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($91.95)
UTG ($22.90)
Hero ($50)
CO ($62.20)
Button ($46.50)
SB ($53.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, CO calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.25) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, CO calls $3.

Turn: ($10.25) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, CO calls $8.

River: ($26.25) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero....<font color="#CC3333">

[slimon]

Hmmmm check/call if he bets small and check/fold if he bets big. I think if villian has missed draws most of the time they don't have the balls to bluff at the river. I just started playing cash so I don't know if I'm right or not.

[doppelganger]

To be honest, I don't see anything you beat here except a busted draw or a bluff, and as you noted you're holding several likely cards in the drawing range. Given the action so far, I guess he's on a range of something like Jx/Qc9c/KcQc + random PP's and SC's and air.

There are probably enough club draws in that range to put you ahead, but how much of that does he bet with?

Maybe a blocking bet of around $11 and fold to a raise?

[Profish2285]

Stack sizes dont allow that. If I bet 11 then I have almost 1/2 of the effective stack in the middle, theres no folding after that point.

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes dont allow that. If I bet 11 then I have almost 1/2 of the effective stack in the middle, theres no folding after that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

rofl...yes there is.


You should be concerned about valuetowning yourself against hands like QJ/KJ. The good thing is, after you bet 2 streets, alot of villians will check these behind, some even AQ. However, they also check behind worse jacks. Then there are the missed draws.

So basically, if you c/c, all you beat is a bluff.

You can b/f 1/2pot, however you are valuetowning yourself frequently and lose value from the few bluffs that would take a stab.


TBH, i think a c/c is ok.

[Profish2285]

Villain shoved river, you still calling?

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain shoved river, you still calling?

[/ QUOTE ]


meh...cant say without being there. Too many factors...ull see a busted FD alot though.


btw, if you had a better read, turn C/R is sexy.

[Profish2285]

[ QUOTE ]
rofl...yes there is.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you dont think puttin in 1/2 your stack and then folding is a pretty bad thing to do overall?

I wish I had a read but this was either my 1st or 2nd orbit so no such luck. My HUD doesnt come up on ppl until I have 50 hands on them so that was useless too. As far as calling the river, his shove is an overbet so Im not getting even 2:1.

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
rofl...yes there is.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you dont think puttin in 1/2 your stack and then folding is a pretty bad thing to do overall?

[/ QUOTE ]

it happens. Look at your hand and the equity you have on the flop/turn. You still have some on the river too. you can c/f here to. sometimes thin value turns bad. sometimes its truely thin value. Its identifying these spots well that makes the difference.


If you cant handle it then check the turn for pot control, if he bets, then semibluff c/r. then you cant fold, your FE is good, and your equity is reasonable.

[Profish2285]

I definitely agree a turn c/r is nice but I dont like doing it vs unknowns. I have no reason to think he will bet for me but actually now that I think about it, its probably not bad either way.

[P0kerJunkie]

Looks just like a busted flush draw to me, seems he would have raised on the flop with QJ or KJ b/c of the flush draw out there. If not, then certainly on the turn. I don't know if i have enough courage to call a shove on the river there, though. A bluff doesn't seem likely at all- he isn't floating you on the flop and turn on this draw heavy of a board...


p.s. can someone fill me in on "valuetowning"? Thanks

[Guitierez]

[ QUOTE ]


p.s. can someone fill me in on "valuetowning"? Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]


"You should be concerned about valuetowning yourself against hands like QJ/KJ."

= you value bet villain's hand

[anthb7210p]

I don't bet both the flop and the turn here, one or the other. It is really really close but I lean toward c/c over c/f because of the busted draws.

[anthb7210p]

[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes dont allow that. If I bet 11 then I have almost 1/2 of the effective stack in the middle, theres no folding after that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villan will also realize this and won't bluff you nearly as much b/c you will get such good odds to call.

[Profish2285]

I dont think the average villain is taking stack sizes into account at all tbh. Its more along the lines of "I have a good hand, raise." I just hate putting in a large part of my stack and then folding, its just bad poker overall imo. I honestly had the intention of going for a c/c but then he over bet shoved and I wimped out. After he did that I gave alot of thought to the other lines but I think c/c is still optimal as long as its not something ridiculous like an overbet shove.

[P0kerJunkie]

i don't see it as close as ant does. I like slimon's original advice way up top- call a small bet (around 1/2 pot), fold to a big bet (pot). flop call and turn call screams flush draw to me in low stakes IME, though a read would have been helpful as many low stakes players shut down on turn if they miss. Really the only hands we should be worried about here are QJ KJ or AJ IMO.

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't see it as close as ant does. I like slimon's original advice way up top- call a small bet (around 1/2 pot), fold to a big bet (pot). flop call and turn call screams flush draw to me in low stakes IME, though a read would have been helpful as many low stakes players shut down on turn if they miss. Really the only hands we should be worried about here are QJ KJ or AJ IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not very good imo. It is level 0 thinking. Readless, the size of the bet means nothing because we cannot accurately decipher what level villian is on.

level 0 = big bet means big hand

level 1 = big bet means bluff because he wouldn't bet that much if he wanted a call.

level 2 = big bet could be intentional to look like a bluff when he has a huge hand.



Because we have no information, we cant let the betsize dictate our decision except from a math perspective, however, that also, is objective. So for the most part, when you decide to c/c, the bet size shouldn't be incredibly relevant.

[Profish2285]

I agree with you whyzze upto a point. Obviously a big bet isnt going to "scare" me off or make me think one way or another about the quality of his hand in this case. But from a math point of view, his overbet just greatly reduced the odds we are getting and Im not sure if we are good like 40% of the time or whatever it is that I would need to be to justify calling an overbet shove.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
My HUD doesnt come up on ppl until I have 50 hands on them so that was useless too.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats useless is having your hud set up this way. you can definitely get useful baseline reads over like 3-4 orbits.

[P0kerJunkie]

Which of the three levels do you think a typical $50 player is at, whyzze? Readless it seems to make sense not to give a typical $50 player too much credit

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
Which of the three levels do you think a typical $50 player is at, whyzze? Readless it seems to make sense not to give a typical $50 player too much credit

[/ QUOTE ]

there is no 'correct' level.

[P0kerJunkie]

I see what you mean- i misread your reply the first time around. Alright - i'll recant the first part of my suggestion, how's the rest of the logic look to you?

[ QUOTE ]
flop call and turn call screams flush draw to me in low stakes IME, though a read would have been helpful as many low stakes players shut down on turn if they miss. Really the only hands we should be worried about here are QJ KJ or AJ IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

[whyzze]

[ QUOTE ]
I see what you mean- i misread your reply the first time around. Alright - i'll recant the first part of my suggestion, how's the rest of the logic look to you?

[ QUOTE ]
flop call and turn call screams flush draw to me in low stakes IME, though a read would have been helpful as many low stakes players shut down on turn if they miss. Really the only hands we should be worried about here are QJ KJ or AJ IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty good. Now, lets take into effect that he shoved the river.

Very few people are shoving QJ/KJ/AJ on this river. It has too much showdown value and a shove ruins it all because you are very rarely goging to get looked up by a worse hand, like never. So we can almost ignore those.

Which takes his range down to sets/910/busted draws imo. Sets very unlikely, usually they make themselves known by the turn (even though a set needs to raise this flop).

So, then we pull out the math (which im too lazy to do) and it will result in:

villian is shoving a busted draw x% of the time for this to be +EV.

Therefore, if you think x&lt; how often he is bluffing you call, and vice versa.

[P0kerJunkie]

Right- i wasn't considering the river shove when i posted that range. I don't think T9 is very likely, as a call pf with that hand OOP isn't very good. I agree that a set would let itself be known with that drawy flop. That really just leaves busted draws...

[Shattered]

Eh, your hand's a bluff-catcher and villain needs to have a busted draw over 40% of the time for this call to be right. C/f looks good here, although I'd definitely c/c if the bet was less than pot-sized; I think a PSB (needing to be good 33% of the time) is my threshold against an unknown, although it's rather arbitrary and can shift dramatically based on table dynamic/slight reads.