Why is he not shoving?

[derosnec]

seems to be a trend lately that hands play like this when i have QQ

villain is 12/10/7 after 300 hands. i have a good boy image (very little 3betting)

only read i have is he played KK this way (he was pfr though and raised donk bet). only other hand that went to showdown when he was not pfr was he had KQ and floated flop/bet turn


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($145.15)
MP ($49.25)
Button ($54.20)
Hero ($61.95)
BB ($149)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $5.

Flop: ($14.50) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $11</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $33</font>, Hero

[james_leach]

I don't know that I've ever seen a 7 aggression factor. I think that I would get it in against somebody with one here, because it would indicate that he's raising 1010, JJ and a lot of other stuff. Against a 12/10/anything sane, I think this is a fold.

[ajmargarine]

Shove-a-rooni.

They might play 2 diamonds, TT+ like this. Smaller pp's too if he is so inclined to call 3b's with them. High variance obv, but a shove is OK imo.

[Milky]

You'd think that he'd 4bet KK/AA pf, so with that being said I think this is a shove. He can be doing this with TT/JJ/A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and some bluffs enough for this to be profitable IMO.

[jasonfish11]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know that I've ever seen a 7 aggression factor

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a guy I try to sit at the same table with that is running 24/20/17 over 500+ hands. I dont think this guy has a call button on his computer.

[doppelganger]

I think a 12/10 PF player who just calls a 3bet is probably on a range of 99+/AQs+. He'll play the flop this way w/ all of the overpairs, sets, and the suited portion of the overcards.

Board: 3d 4d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.869% 44.25% 01.62% 77541 2835.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 54.131% 52.51% 01.62% 92019 2835.00 { 99+, AdKd, AdQd }


Stove says we're slightly behind his range but with pot odds we can't fold.

[derosnec]

yeah i know he can have 2 diamonds, TT/JJ, but why is he not shoving them? when was the last time you saw someone make a PSR in a 3bet pot with those hands?

[ajmargarine]

So, you're saying if he pushed, you'd instacall? But because he raised weird (only effectively pushing), you wanna fold?

[doppelganger]

He could be using a betting script.

[derosnec]

yes

[derosnec]

i have 29% equity against this range. i weighted JJ/TT less by only giving them 3 combos, and weighted KK less since it 4-bets pf usually. i included 44/33 because not everyone knows about set mining odds. i left out AKo


AA
KcKd,KcKh,KcKs,KdKh,KdKs
QQ
JdJh,JdJs,JhJs
TdTh,TdTs,ThTs
99,44-33
AdKd,AdQd

[ajmargarine]

That's a pretty doom and gloom range there. I would weight TT-JJ as more possible than KK-AA because of the chance he 4bs pre more with KK-AA. The sets are slightly less possible because he calls with them sometimes on the flop. And you should include 88 in there too, because well, you probably have AK and he doesn't want you to catch up.

So, a good range imo would be 88-KK, 1/2 the AA's, and a few flush draws, and an air hand, and T9 to acct for ridiculousness.

[ajmargarine]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.344 secs 103,604 games/sec

Board: 3d 4d 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.146% 54.82% 01.33% 19538 472.50 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 43.854% 42.53% 01.33% 15157 472.50 { AcAd, AcAs, AdAh, AdAs, KK-88, AdKd, AdQd, AsJh, Tc9d }

[derosnec]

yeah but i think a lot of those hands would push though. well, no point belaboring that. good discussion. i learned some stuff. got the brain to work a little.

[traz]

I think you're overthinking the whole "why didn't he shove" thing