1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m

[AZplaya]

Villian is 33/23, ok lag but not great. Bluffs too much and value bets 3 streets with really marginal hands. For some reason this turn feels like a draw more than a monster, but meh. Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

Hero (CO): $50.45
BTN: $43.85
SB: $50.25
BB: $56.55
UTG: $50

Pre-Flop: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($4) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($11) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $45 and is All-In</font>, Hero pukes and ???

[gfejs]

I dont think this looks like a draw if that was the case Villian would prolly repop the flop. I think this looks like a set that slowplayed the flop and protected the hand on the turn.

Your bet is strong on the turn and I cant see a villian doing this move with worse.

[payoff wizard]

I like a check behind on the turn. As played, I think I get it in there against a LAG as nothing got there on the turn and this is a great spot/nice pot for him to float.

It would be nice to know what villain's flop AF is, because if its high then the flop c/c looks a lot like a slow-rolling flopped str8.

[anthb7210p]

Turn bet is fine as you've got to protect your hand with all the draws on the board, but I would let it go at this point becuase although he could have something like Ac8c, I think that monsters make up a much larger % of his range.

[Lego05]

AF?

I most likely fold without seeing him do this with a weakish hand.

[corsakh]

Do not believe.

[johnnybeef]

Given your read, I would go with it as it looks really drawy. But this really depends on how tricky he is. If he overthinks him self, I would dump it.

[cryptic]

On the turn you have the option to call for $36.50 for a chance to take a pot of $64.50, giving you roughly 1.75:1 pot odds. If you believe Harrington's statement that most players bluff at least 10% of the time, then you can probably place this player on bluffing around 20% of the time. So 20% of the time, he'll be holding something like KQo or AQo or something. 80% of the time, he'll have some legitimate holding--either a draw or a higher pair.

Putting him on 44+ and any draw (both straight and flush) puts you at about equal money. This will be the case roughly 80% of the time. the other 20% of the time, you're looking at more like 70% equity. This gives around 54% equity. With the pot odds you're given, I'd say a call is fine.

However, his flop play was really weak--he very well may be slow playing a set, but with a flush draw on the board, I really can't see him allowing the potential for a free card. If he had a set, he'd definitely be raising instead of merely calling your bet.

I'd actually call this one--the chances of him holding the straight are pretty minimal (98s isn't good enough to justify calling your 3.5BB pfr). He may have gotten nervous about the second spade appearing or not hitting his draw or whatever.

[Phaze 1]

From my esperience at stars nl50 unless this guy is even more aggro and crazy then u explained this it more likely to be a slowed played set or str. Doubt he floats u here with a weak draw on the flop then all of a sudden comes alive on the turn. Hes prob not smart enought to even put u on a range and just decided to spring his trap and hope u call with???? Anyway I think this is a fold.

[ama0330]

why did you bet the flop?

[Nemesis69]

Betting the turn is fine. You've got to protect ur hand.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting the turn is fine. You've got to protect ur hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said the flop

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
why did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, a flop check is really sexy as your equity is so hugely dependent on the next card, and checking keeps the pot small. ama, you make me swoon sometimes.

[iheartponeez]

[ QUOTE ]
why did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Me no understand. We think our hand is best, yeah? We see a drawy board? Why do we check behind? (I'm sure you know...but I don't.)

And how do you continue when any 4, 8, 9, club, J, Q, K or A is a scare card? Or did I just answer my own question?

But does that mean we play check-fold on the turn to almost any card? On the river?

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
But does that mean we play check-fold on the turn to almost any card? On the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

check folding is impossible. We're in position. This renders a lot of your argument slightly difficult.

I think ama is on to something.

[iheartponeez]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But does that mean we play check-fold on the turn to almost any card? On the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

check folding is impossible. We're in position. This renders a lot of your argument slightly difficult.

I think ama is on to something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check-fold meaning we check behind/fold to pressure. Or are we checking behind/calling bets? Or are we betting when checked to, and calling bets, or what?

You don't have to pigeon-hole my question into, "Is this c/f?"

My question is: Since we have top pair on a drawy board and a majority of the deck is a scare card, and you don't want to bet the flop, (probably SINCE most turn cards are going to scare us) what is the proper play then? Are we just turtling up and getting to showdown with minimal pressure here? Do we fold to strong bets? What is the deal here?

[Profish2285]

Okay so we check turn and we do what on the 4,8,J,Q,K,A, club turn? As played I probably fold just because everytime I find myself in these spots recently against a lag I am drawing close to dead.

[Peter Harris]

By checking the flop, we keep the pot small. We have a chance to see what the turn is and how it affects our equity. We have a chance to see if villain will lead the turn or check to us.

By betting the flop, we are protecting a marginal hand, but at the cost of swelling a pot with a hand that isn't readily prepared to commit. We swell the pot at a time when we can't be sure our equity will even be present in one cards time.

Hero's bet flop/bet turn line is not optimal imo.

Bet flop/check turn/reassess [=fold to pot size donk/value bet/check behind/bet-fold to c/r] on river is ok.

But i think check flop, betting if checked to or raising a blank turn when bet into, or folding to a bet on a horrible turn card is a better line.

I reckon most people blindly bet flop and check turn, and others end up in this situation, being c/r by a player who isn not easy to read. I respect AZ and I would like to hear his thoughts, and I also respect ama's opinions and would like more elucidation from him.

Really, all this line did was bloat a pot and ended up in a nasty situation once you are checkraised on the turn by a player you can't be certain is doing it with a better hand (which I much prefer).

Also, you can't say 4, 8, J, Q, K, A and clubs are all equally "scary" cards. With position on the river and some judgement you could value bet on a red J/Q river, although checking back for SD vs a tricky player may be better.

God I hope ama and AZ come chime in. I've been away for 6 weeks and maybe I've lost the plot.

[Profish2285]

This is why I have stuff to learn I guess but I think checking the flop is terrible. Are you checking the flop with all your overpairs? I understand that our equity increases dramatically on a blank turn, I played limit for a while so I have to know this. With that said, how can you decide that a red Q/J are good cards to vb as you have no idea what villain has now as you just let him see a free turn. Im going to say some jacks and queens are in villains range so those should be scare cards to us. I am taking hero's same line because I would do the same with my sets, big draws, and other overpairs as well. Against most villains I am folding here like I said before though. If you really trust your read then go for it but I have been on the wrong end of hands for a while recently so it has made me re think things. Normally against a lagtard I am happily calling this turn.

[traz]

checking the flop or turn is SO results oriented

[munkey]

I bet flop and prob bet turn too but I think a turn check despite how scary the river could be is best -plus AZ says he likes to bluff so we may get to snap one off as our line looks like pfr+cbet. I fold as played but agree this is prob a combo draw too alot time.

I would only bet turn if a c/r isn't too likely.

[AZplaya]

[ QUOTE ]
why did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop because I want to extract value from a player who plays too many hands and goes to far with marginal hands.
I bet the flop because my opponent pounces on weakness, and half the deck scares the [censored] out of me on the turn.
I bet the flop because if I check behind 1010 here then I can't bet A /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Profish2285]

Yea like I said, I think a flop and turn bet is mandatory.

[hockeyf]

Checking the flop is awful. Bet/fold this turn is good.

[whyzze]

snap call and stack his turned combo draw.

[dlorc]

[ QUOTE ]
snap call and vom as he turns up 77

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 33/23, ok lag but not great. Bluffs too much and value bets 3 streets with really marginal hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

What bluffs has he showndown in what position? Sounds like if he had a marginal hand he'd be more prone to check/call bet bet or bet bet bet here. Just further cements that your hand is effectively AA. The problem is this hand depends so much on his cold calling range in the BB and you haven't given any info for that.

[terp]

well played, now call

[Julio Dalehurst]

This hand is really read dependent. What is his calling range in the BB? What is his bluffing frequency? What range does he put you on based on your history? Does he think has has fold equity?

By default though, with this type of LAG, I find this overbet is a combo draw more often than a made hand as a set is more likely to c/r flop. Its harder to put him on a straight unless hes been cold calling with SC’s out of the BB.

[GeraldGiraffe]

I agree that this is a thoroughly confusing hand. The action up to the flop and on the flop gives me the feeling that this is a really read dependent situation; what sort of hands has the villain been calling OOP - is he loose in the blinds? What's his flop AF - is he willing to slowplay strong hands on super-drawy boards like this?

Anyway, it's hard to see him not raising a strong draw here on this flop. In addition though, it's hard to see him failing to raise a very strong made hand on this flop either. I'm not sure if I put him on a float but my instinct would be that it's difficult to fold that turn after his action so far - especially as it's a big enough brick to build a house with.