OESD oop in a bloated pot, say what...

[stu-unger]

reads- villain was 14/12/2 over around 120 and seemed decent. we dont have any history to speak of and im playing pretty nitty, so if hes paying attention this is what he should think of me.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

CO: $16.80
BTN: $41.10
Hero (SB): $55.50
BB: $25.70
UTG: $67.55

Pre-Flop: 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1</font>, Hero calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.25) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.70</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $7.35</font>, Hero pukes on his shoes and does what...

i know i could have 3 bet, but i thought it was meh. comments on all streets appreciated, especially a plan for the rest of the hand if we plan on continuing...

[kaz2107]

given ur image and villians image i love a raise to like 30 total or so. we will have an ass load of FE and even when he does call or shove or w/e we still will have reasonably good equity in the hand

[payoff wizard]

I disagree with Kaz, and I think you should fold. Villain is at 14/12/2, has raised preflop, and then raised your ill-advised donk-bet by more than pot. At the micros, you are nearly never ahead here.

note: with villain's PT stats, assuming he adjusts his PF range for position, from UTG you can probably narrow his range to AQs+, AK, or 99+, against which you have 53% equity. However, its unlikely villain makes this play with overcards and your equity against 99+ is only 38%.

[gfejs]

Is check call the flop a bad move here?

It shows some strenghts and may slow down overcards... I dunno check calling the flop and reraising the turn looks really strong if u think villian will fold overcards...

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with Kaz, and I think you should fold. Villain is at 14/12/2, has raised preflop, and then raised your ill-advised donk-bet by more than pot. At the micros, you are nearly never ahead here.

note: with villain's PT stats, assuming he adjusts his PF range for position, from UTG you can probably narrow his range to AQs+, AK, or 99+, against which you have 53% equity. However, its unlikely villain makes this play with overcards and your equity against 99+ is only 38%.



[/ QUOTE ]yes obv we r well behind his range but we should have a [censored] ton of FE here. i dont see a nit calling a big 3 bet on this flop against another known nit with 99-QQ here very often thus makin the play good imo. and when he does call we still win the hand 40% of the time so we r in good shape

[Purm]

Why only 99+? My raising stats are worse then villans 12 and I raise every pocket pair UTG, we could be waaay behind vs a set here. I would c/c on the flop and see what the turn brings, but then again, I'm nitty and to weak.

[Lego05]

Check/raise the flop please.

[kolotoure]

Kaz's line is the same as mine

[fozzy71]

[ QUOTE ]
Kaz's line is the same as mine

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet, 3-Bet, call his All In, Fist-Pump.

Kick your dog when he flips 77+ and you miss.

*Ninja Edit - Embrace the Variance. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Lego05]

Guys if you bet and he raises...what do you exect to happen when you 3bet all-in?

IMO he's rarely folding...especially when your original bet is that large. So he's calling mostly. And that means mosly you have 10 outs. So why do want to get all-in with 33% equity so much...or fold out his nohting hands we were beating immediately....?


Check/raise the flop...we get value from his nothing hands that will then fold to your raise...and largely have 33% equity against his good hnds which will call or shove after your check/raise.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
yes obv we r well behind his range but we should have a [censored] ton of FE here. i dont see a nit calling a big 3 bet on this flop against another known nit with 99-QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this, I can't see why he would have raised here if he doesnt want to call a shove as this is not a very good board to be bluffing on. If he puts you on an overpair he knows you will call because of the SD on the flop, and thus we should also know that if he has QQ he will be putting us on the SD if we shove. Obv he wont put us directly on the SD but he will be figuring it into our range. I think our FE is pretty low here.

[Altreg]

CR on this flop is waaaaaaaaay better than 3b or crai If you interesting in EV numbers they r:

EV(3bet)=+0.54bb
EV(crai)=-1.91bb
EV(CR)=+2.7

so like said b4-just CR

[Nick Royale]

Check/call the flop. Bet/3-betting sucks. A nittish player just made a more than 4x raise deep, this should clearly make us discount at least JJ-88. I don't think we should try to get him fold AA-QQ and a set is obviously in his range as well.

I don't get the idea of betting the flop at all. Just check/call and pick up the c-bet. We have a nice draw and we're ahead often, by betting we're getting him to fold tons of worse hands and when we're behind we're often bloating the pot with a decent draw deep. We're obv never getting him to fold a better hand by betting, unless we're also 3-betting which would be bad because his raising range is strong and probably doesn't include JJ-88/7x type of hands.

[Michaelson]

People realise we're &gt; 200bb deep here, right?

Leading this flop against a nitty UTG raiser this deep is questionable. It'd be good if his range was wide enough you were likely to get a fold or call, or even if he was the sort to bluff raise, but in this spot he's likely to be pretty strong and you have no moves when he raises you (you have to fold flop here, IMO, with no odds or implied odds).

Basically, when you lead, and he's sitting there with an overpair or set, he thinks "crap, I'm good right now, but that board's drawy, so I gotta pot" and then you're screwed. Also, from his perspective, he can probably fold most overpair's pretty comfortably if you come over the top.

Alternatively, if you check raise the flop, all of a sudden he has to be more cautious with his strong/non monster hands, because a 3-bet will be committing himself in a monster pot where he'll probably only get it in as a significant underdog.

[Altreg]

Yes,c/c is better and higher ev ,than 3b or crai
But i think we do want hem 2fold hes "better" hands,wich i think include A/Q and A/K,we dont want hem 2 hit them on the turn
I think ev(c/c) is arroung +1.7 and ev(c/r) still higher

[Michaelson]

BTW, I agree with Nick as well that check/calling is pretty sound, particularly against a nit. Better than a CR as a rule, actually. If you want to take a crack at this on the flop, though, leading is the worst way to go about it IMO.

[Michaelson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes,c/c is better and higher ev ,than 3b or crai
But i think we do want hem 2fold hes "better" hands,wich i think include A/Q and A/K,we dont want hem 2 hit them on the turn
I think ev(c/c) is arroung +1.7 and ev(c/r) still higher

[/ QUOTE ]

What are these numbers? This is gibberish to me.

[Altreg]

sry if u dont get it.i just put in end-numbers for ev for each play that i calculated
But if u inerested,this is complite calculations
EV(on 3bet)=0.45*11.3+0.55((11.3+30)0.37-0.63*37.75))
=5.08+055(1528-23.53)=+0.54

EV(on all-in re reaise)=0.45*11.3+055((11.3+47.15)0.37-063*52.7)=5.08+0.55(20.47-33.21)=-1.98

EV(on CR)=0.75*4.5+0.25((4.5+12)*0.36-0.64*14.25)=3.37+0.25(5.94-9.25)=+2.57

[Nick Royale]

Btw, check/raising the flop is bad because what do you do when you get called and you miss the turn? Check/fold? Check/call? Bet/fold? Bet/call? Everything pretty much suck. By check/calling the flop we're keeping the pot in a managable size and the betsizes reasonable compared to our hands strength. When we b/3b or c/r the flop our sd value go out the window.

Also think about what hands you're trying to get to fold by check/raising the flop. Only worse hands right? Not always do we need the initiative postflop. Imo doing anything other than check/calling the flop would be a pretty big mistake.

[Altreg]

you right about keeping pot small off positon

I just replyed about betting options,but c/c its good option 2

[Michaelson]

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, check/raising the flop is bad because what do you do when you get called and you miss the turn? Check/fold? Check/call? Bet/fold? Bet/call? Everything pretty much suck. By check/calling the flop we're keeping the pot in a managable size and the betsizes reasonable compared to our hands strength. When we b/3b or c/r the flop our sd value go out the window.

Also think about what hands you're trying to get to fold by check/raising the flop. Only worse hands right? Not always do we need the initiative postflop. Imo doing anything other than check/calling the flop would be a pretty big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a vacuum, sure, I agree for the most part. Don't mind a CR for balance/metagame from time to time, but there are obviously pretty big downsides to it.

I was mainly just thinking about the difference between leading and check-raising in terms of who's likely to be facing tough decisions on later streets, though.

[traz]

a) I raise these donkbets on this board all the time, so you may have a ton of FE depending on the player
b) don't donk the turn if you don't know what to do when he raises

As played, I'm pretty sure I 3bet because bet-folding here is just a poorly thought-out play. If you're not willing to 3bet, then cc (or cr I guess, I usually cc though)

[Lego05]

Check/calling not so good IMO. What are you going to get paid off on? When you hit your hand there'll be 4 to a straight on the board. And you're not going to be able to call a second bet so you're going to get pushed off the hand on the turn by worse hands a good amount of the time.


....wondering about check/call, block the turn now....but still I think his big hands will raise a good amount especially cause this looks weird... except when there's 4 to a straight and you made your hand.



If we check raise the flop and get called there's like 14 or so in pot...so what about blocking the turn there for like 8-9....and then folding to a raise unless it's a small one and odds are pretty good....?