more Hand Reading practice

[matrix]

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

Hero (SB): $113.53
BB: $50
UTG: $134.51
MP: $50
CO: $70.87
BTN: $54.53

Pre-Flop: two cards dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $2.50</font>, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.50) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7

River: ($23.50) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $16</font>, Hero calls $16

Villain is 32/22/5 lagfish. Street Ag factors are 4/7/5

what has villain got?

what have I got?

what do you call with on the river?

[Nemesis69]

What are your stats?

[tcmNOWAY]

My guess is busted draw (not J9ss) trying to buy w/ triple-barrel vs. AT, hero could have KT or even A8 (should've posted your stats too while you were at it).

Snap-call w/ a 10, call sometimes with MPGK (TPBK could be possible for villain although unlikely here imo)

[KEW]

I would put OP on a range of JTs,T9,89s and maybe 78s and possibly 99..I put 99 in OPs range based on villains aggro number on all streets would make calling for set value very +EV...I exclude hands like ATs-QTs because they are so hard to play OOP and get away from OOP vs an aggro post flop LAG and OP is more likely to 3 bet them PF...

Villain range is nearly ATC that he would open raise with from MP..OP played hand very passively like a FD so a aggro villain could be triple barrelling putting OP squarely on a FD..

[matrix]

hero is 20/17/2 TAG but villain has just sat and won't know that.

[orlov]

Mh i think op has a set, I just dont think he would have called with an sc from the SB.
Mayb at.

[Schiester]

I'd showdown this way with 99, 89s, 9Ts any better suited T, ATo here I think given villans stats. Probably makes sense not to repop 99 here if villan is LAGfish and will pay off when you hit.

Set isn't likely as I'd expect it to be raised on river .

I think 99 makes the most sense as I don't see matrix playing scs two-way from the blinds without a good read he's getting payed off when he hits.

... sorry KEW, pretty much what you already said.

I'm thinking 99 makes the most sense though.

[thing85]

::grunch::

Hero has something like 77, 99, Ad8d, As6s, 7d8d, or Td9d.

Villain's range includes a busted SD or FD, a QT/KT/AT type hand, or a small PP (that doesn't give him a set).

I probably call this river with any of those hands I listed in hero's range as they are mostly head of villain's range (but it's close).

[orlov]

Oh nvm, didnt see that hero called on the river my bad, mh my guess then also is 99/at or even JJ(smoothcalling allows villain to bluff his stack off?)

[thing85]

If hero has JJ, he played it very poorly. I also don't think hero has a T of JTs+ because he would've put in a raise on the flop or turn. QTo/KTo/ATo are likely out of hero's range because he flat calls the raise OOP PF. IMO, he either 3bets those or folds them given his stats.

[corsakh]

draws, boats, three pairs and 87, 89 vs 99

[matrix]

bump for some more thoughts.

[thing85]

We want results!

[jgunnip]

Hero has a weak made hand. JTs+, maybe JJ/99.

Bet timing for villain would be helpful

villain might have a straight. I think sets and overpairs bet the flop stronger although a lot of times people will bet the flop small with strong hands and then make a strong bet on the turn. But this board is pretty scary for those hands. A8, A6? I don't think even the lagtards three barrel here with such weak hands at 50nl unless they are complete maniacs. Same for AK/AQ. 86 and T8 are possibilities. I dunno its hard to put players like this on hands, although when somebody takes a line like this I tend to give them credit for a fairly strong hands. Ks3s ftw.

[WHEN_WE_ESCAPE]

How could hero have anything here that he played well? This post is a lol

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

Bet timing for villain would be helpful

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain fires every street with just a couple of seconds thinking time. So clearly he is not thinking. I think this polarises his range into nuts or bluff.

Hero tanked for 10secs ish before making the river call.

Most people have figured out my hand correctly - I have 99.

How often is villains line an OP thus making my call spectacularly bad. How often is villain 3 barrelling whiffed OC's or a missed draw maybe with a smaller pair like 67ss A7ss or something similar?

When_we_escape:
many thanks for your fabulous contribution to this thread.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
How could hero have anything here that he played well? This post is a lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhm, did you read OP?

[ QUOTE ]

Villain is 32/22/5 lagfish.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hero can call down light and expect to see some seriously bad hands. Hero also doesn't want to raise anywhere because he either loses out on more bluffs to snap off or he gets called/three-bet by villain's sneaky monster.

I'm thinking hero has a suited connector that hit the board:

JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, or 65s.

It's also possible that hero has 99/77/55/44/22. I even think this play is fine with JJ, though at that point the preflop smooth-call is a bit suspect. Hero could be mixing up his preflop play and committing to calling down flop/turn/river on any board with JJ, hoping to swipe a big pot and get villain to quit stealing his blinds....

With a hand stronger than JJ I'd expect hero to make a river raise at the very least, so that's about all I'm willing to give hero in this situation.

As to villain, he raises 22% of all of his preflop hands. Since he's not in stealing position I'm going to stick with about 22% of his hands as a good range. Unfortunately these players come in many different flavors, so I'll broaden it a bit to include any two cards T+, any pair, any suited ace, any suited connector, any unsuited connector, and any suited one-gapper. That's about 30% of hands, but his range probably falls in there somewhere.

The flop bet does not narrow his range for me -- most people this aggro have a c-bet percentage that's something more than 100%. The fact that it was small does lead me to believe that he might have a weaker hand. Alternatively, he might have seen hero's check and figured that only a small bet would get called, so he backed off somewhat.

The strong turn bet looks like an improvement to me: my best guess is that villain picked something up there. A3s is certainly possible, as is /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

The river bet narrows villain down to either a stronger hand or a missed hand. At this point, I put villain on:

Hands hero probably beats:
A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif x/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
A/images/graemlins/spade.gif x/images/graemlins/spade.gif
ATs
A8s
A6s
J9s
76
75s
65
54s
55/44/22

Hands hero probably loses to:
TT+
88
66
33
A3s
T8s
97s
86s

(Note that it is much harder to narrow down a loose and aggressive opponent who is playing loosely and aggressively than it is to narrow down a tight and aggressive opponent who is playing tightly and passively.)

[spacetime]

Hero: Assuming you are a decent TAG, your SB calling range here PF is limited to low-mid PP's. I don't see Hero CC with any suited connectors here OOP against an almost certain series of cbets. JJ-AA, KQs+ would all be 3bet PF. With the flop action it is unlikely that hero has flopped a set. There are many draws that villain can have here and it would be more +EV to just play the set fast against this villain. I still don't think that SC are likely b/c of the PF CC from the blinds, but I think J9s, 910 both play the flop the same, as well as any weird low SC's that have FD's along with them. 97s would probably raise, so Ill throw that out. 77, 99 are both possibilities. Basically, you are on a draw or have a decent, but not great, made hand. I am leaning towards the latter.

Hero will probably not call this turn with a non-made hand. If a draw hits the river, villain may check behind which eliminates the implied odds that you would need to justify calling the turn bet.

With the river action, hero obv was not on a draw and did not flop a set. Only likely holdings for hero are 77, 99 and MAYBE some weird J10 or 910 hand, but unlikely IMO given the PF CC. So I am going with 77 or 99, both which I think may warrant a call against this villain.

For villain, his range is very wide here. Any SC with a draw / pair, a flopped set or an overpair would take these lines. He may even be just jamming it because he thinks you are weak (these series of call downs are probably not the reg. for you as a TAG (assuming you are a TAG)). If we have 77 or 99 or a ten, it is likely we are ahead of enough of his range to call this river bet. 77 would suck because there are many 8's and 10's in his range, and the 99 eliminates at least the 8's.

I call this river with 77, 99 and any ten.

[matrix]

so basically the consensus is that we are calling with our 99 here and Villains line looks much like a busted draw or similar.?


Villain flips KJo and shortly afterwards calls me a [censored] donkey for calling his "obvious Overpair"

[Necromancer]

grunch

you 86, 108

Him A set improving to FH, An overpair (coz its quite a weak flop bet, scared of a set, but a strong turn bet-protecting his hand)

Somebody may have TPTK in there somewhere

[ama0330]

You have JJ, he has anything

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
You have JJ, he has anything

[/ QUOTE ]

Why doesn't hero 3bet JJ pf for value?

[eastern motors]

Why would you not 3-bet this PF?

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you not 3-bet this PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am OOP after the flop - I don't want to build bloated pots OOP vs lagfish with less than JJ+/AK and if lagfish 4bets I gots to throw away what is likely the best hand.

I flat call JJ preflop ~40% of the time here tho usually 3bet.