Nut flush c/raised on river, value in shoving?

[pikeamus]

Villain is loose passive preflop no reads post flop and not enough hands for stats. I often double barrel on friendly turns like this one but decided not to until I know if this guy floats OOP. On river is there any value in raising (shoving) over his bet? Having trouble putting him on a range...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

CO: $42.80
BTN: $13.75
SB: $68
BB: $50.40
Hero (UTG): $50
MP: $58.25

Pre-Flop: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 4 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.80</font>, BB calls $2.80

Turn: ($9.35) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($9.35) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $16</font>, Hero ???

[orlov]

Your hand is very disguised, and I think he will have trips and call with them(or in some freak cases a lower flush) more often than a boat.

[Somnius]

Board: 5s Kd Jc 4d Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.621% 58.62% 00.00% 17 0.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 41.379% 41.38% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 55-44, AJs, KJs, QJs, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, AJo, KJo, QJo }

He could also have J9s, JTs, but he might actually fold those to a push.

This is based on a general loose passive low limit player...who really doesn't want to fold trips on the river...but, if you think he would fold most trips except for the AJ...

Board: 5s Kd Jc 4d Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.826% 47.83% 00.00% 11 0.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 52.174% 52.17% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 55-44, AJs, KJs, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, AJo, KJo }

...I'd still push...

[AZplaya]

shove he snap calls with a ton of hands you beat. If he flips over KJ rebuy and make a note.

[balzak520]

Shove all day. Also, I believe your equity is higher than Somnius's stove analysis, because some of those hands are not peeling the flop.

[JPantz]

def shove he shows AJ

[Somnius]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove all day. Also, I believe your equity is higher than Somnius's stove analysis, because some of those hands are not peeling the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this statement is true, then you are saying villain wouldn't peel 44, 55, KJ on the flop since those are the only hands that beat us which I included in the range...

If you were referring to other hands in that range...and you think some of them are not peeling the flop, then his range that we beat is narrower, and our equity smaller...

[Babalatexi]

The thing with that range is that you're not taking into consideration that villain plays different hands from his range differently on the river. In this case he min-check-raised, so unless he's retarded he doesn't have a boat and hence we shove. Heck it could even be a bluff since hero checked the turn, most villain's would bet boats here instead of c/ring as you could easily check behind on the river. To me this looks like trips/weak flush and I think we're good almost always here. (If villain had a boat, make a note of him).

[balzak520]

I was thinking that 44 never peels this flop, and for some reason I didn't think a boat wouldn't play this way, but I guess players can be terrible. You're right about the equity though, it's closer than I thought, and I got about the same numbers as you did. Still, a shove though.

[pikeamus]

Thanks for opinions. I shoved, opponent had KJ, I rebought and made a note. I also ran bad everywhere else and got so tilted I had to go have a scotch. I hate poker sometimes.