View Full Version : river bluff against flush draw
1fineday
11-18-2007, 09:59 PM
Villain is 78/17/0.75 Went to SD 40, total hands 56
Is river bet good?
Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)
BTN: $15.20
SB: $23.40
BB: $29.47
UTG: $38.43
Hero (CO): $38.68
Pre-Flop: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $1
Flop: ($2.85) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.25</font>, UTG calls $2.25
Turn: ($7.35) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: ($7.35) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, UTG folds
Results: $7.35 Pot
Hero mucked A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif and WON $9.99 (+$6.49 NET)
Schiester
11-18-2007, 10:14 PM
I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high.
That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78.
Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make.
icheckcallu
11-18-2007, 10:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high.
That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78.
Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make.
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WHA?? Villain doesnt like betting with that low af.
Schiester
11-18-2007, 10:21 PM
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I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high.
That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78.
Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make.
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WHA?? Villain doesnt like betting with that low af.
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villans honesty (so to speak) is a function of VPIP vs AF.
ie. a villan with VPIP 5 + AF 10 is probably not bs'ing as often as one thats 35 + AF 3
So .. with a VPIP of 5 you'd expect one to bet out quite often rather than flat call given the fact the the range dictated by a low VPIP is very strong.
This guy is playing 78% of cards dealt and betting out on 75% of those hands after the flop... kinda fishy? Noone hits that often (given sample size is tiny and AF is not statistically significant).
icheckcallu
11-18-2007, 10:26 PM
.72af doesnt = 75% betting post flop LOLOLOLOLOL
Schiester
11-18-2007, 10:38 PM
.72 AF means he's betting / raising 72 times for every 100 times he calls. That is aggressive for someone with a high VPIP!
72/10/0.72 is playing marginal hands much more aggressively than a 20/10/0.72.
Schiester
11-18-2007, 10:39 PM
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.72af doesnt = 75% betting post flop LOLOLOLOLOL
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Lose the attitude please. This is friendly forum and I'm just trying to learn.
wingchunflush
11-18-2007, 10:40 PM
obviously it worked. Want a cookie?
icheckcallu
11-18-2007, 10:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
.72 AF means he's betting / raising 72 times for every 100 times he calls. That is aggressive for someone with a high VPIP!
72/10/0.72 is playing marginal hands much more aggressively than a 20/10/0.72.
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thats not how u calculate AF. And no he is very loooooooooooose passive with almost 0 aggression. You can
Micro Donk
11-18-2007, 10:44 PM
we beat a flush draw
Schiester
11-18-2007, 11:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
.72 AF means he's betting / raising 72 times for every 100 times he calls. That is aggressive for someone with a high VPIP!
72/10/0.72 is playing marginal hands much more aggressively than a 20/10/0.72.
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thats not how u calculate AF. And no he is very loooooooooooose passive with almost 0 aggression. You can
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This is AF
(Raise % + Bet %)
----------------
(Call %)
Coupled with the fact that he's seeing SD 40% means that he isn't folding that much which means he is getting to SD with about 30% of starting hands.
0.72 means he is, in general terms, passive. You are right. However, given these stats he must be either on a massive heater or playing marginal hands aggressively (i.e. betting out with 3rd pair). He is betting/raising almost as often as he is calling with a HUGE pf range.
icheckcallu
11-18-2007, 11:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
.72 AF means he's betting / raising 72 times for every 100 times he calls. That is aggressive for someone with a high VPIP!
72/10/0.72 is playing marginal hands much more aggressively than a 20/10/0.72.
[/ QUOTE ]
thats not how u calculate AF. And no he is very loooooooooooose passive with almost 0 aggression. You can
[/ QUOTE ]
This is AF
(Raise % + Bet %)
----------------
(Call %)
Coupled with the fact that he's seeing SD 40% means that he isn't folding that much which means he is getting to SD with about 30% of starting hands.
0.72 means he is, in general terms, passive. You are right. However, given these stats he must be either on a massive heater or playing marginal hands aggressively (i.e. betting out with 3rd pair). He is betting/raising almost as often as he is calling with a HUGE pf range.
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THESE ARE THE TYPES OF PLAYERS you value bet much when u have tp and fold to when he comes over the op. he has 40% went to sd because he is calling down with any piece.
Schiester
11-18-2007, 11:30 PM
OP has zero pair; A high.
OP is beaten by any 7, 9, T, J, Q, K.
I'm saying this is VERY narrow because villan is probably not folding and is likely to have one of those cards.
I agree with value betting top pair and I'm not having a dig.
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