Funny river spot with 66, NL50

[ama0330]

Im playing without a HUD, so I don't have any stats. Me and villain have not tangled so far, this is early on in the session and he has been under my radar - I'm on 6 tables so I haven't noticed him.

Any thoughts?

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

Hero (SB): $46.75
BB: $40.17
UTG: $48.94
CO: $59.22
BTN: $71.09

Pre-Flop: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $1.50</font>, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.50) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4.50) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $2.50</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($9.50) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $10</font>

[kaz2107]

fold... there wasnt a bunch of draws that missed and a ton of people when they hit trips now think their Q6 is now the nutz thus value bet it hard. if u had a read that this guy is a bluffing maniac or u had some weird history between the 2 of u then i would think a call would b closer. but without either of those looks like a good fold to me

[njdoo]

I would also fold. He couldve had a busted draw, but I see him doing this with week queens a lot at 50nl.

[Malifous]

Instafold obv, your not beating anything and it feels like villain has weak queen. That river "overbet" is weird tho.

[catoandtonic]

Without reads, I almost agree that a fold is best. For an argument, I will admit that in practice, I call this bet alot more than I would like to admit. Honestly, I call this against unknowns all the time.

While this call, may not be profitable against unknowns, I feel that against players who I have a feel for their tenancies, I pick off enough bluffs to be profitable. Villain's line really doesn't make sense. He either has a monster or nothing. When I call this, I am not afraid of any Q or T as much as I am of 77-99. I am more afraid of villain bluffing with the best hand than I am of him value betting the best hand. This is a Q very rarely imo. If he has a Q, I say nh and take a note. Whatever the result is, I take a note and adjust to this specific player.

[hockeyf]

This is not a funny river spot at all. I would lead the turn and if called I take a new decision based on the river card and his action when we check to him.

[catoandtonic]

Wow, I misread the action. I thought BTN was our villain betting turn and river. What I said in the above post was assuming something that was not true.

I don't advocate calling this anymore. I actually fold this given BB is doing the betting.


Looking at the hand from this new perspective:

In order to make our call here correct, we would need him to have a missed draw a very healthy percentage of the time. His possible hands on turn that missed are: hearts, J9, JK, and 56. That does make a decent range of hands for an unknown to bet.

The hands that make a pair greater than 6's are decent as well. AQ, KQ, QT, AT, KT, JT, and 9T. Of these, I can only see the hands containing a Q being played this way and possibly JJ. Also, we would have to add random Q's such as Q4hh to this equation. Most are not going to bet a T this hard. Although, you never really know.

All in all, I think villain is going to end up with a Q way too often for us to call. If we had AT, it might be closer.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a funny river spot at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why

[ QUOTE ]
I would lead the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Why

[Profish2285]

I would have folded on the turn. I think it is very possible that BB went for the c/r assuming the BTN would c-bet but missed his chance. Now he is trying to get some value out of his hand. I dont see why this cant be a queen, boat, or mayybeee a ten.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is not a funny river spot at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why

[ QUOTE ]
I would lead the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Why

[/ QUOTE ]i would rather c/c turn and c/f river then leading turn. unless u have seen him floating u too much betting the turn is rather useless. but that being said calling the river bet is rather spewey. if he didnt pot it i would consider it much more profitable. but i cant see him out right bluffing this river 50% of the time. that just seems like a stretch for an unknown

[matrix]

I call a half pot - up to about 2/3 river bet here I think - but not full pot unless I has a note saying "bets full pot on river when bluffing" or something like that.

He just isn't bluffing often enough to make it profitable I think - he's VBing a T oddly or has Q4dd or QT or Qx more than half the time I'd guess, even tho his line does look bluffy.

[munkey]

two overcards to our handa nd vs small pps we beat 22 and 55
no direct busted draws except kj and heart turn fdraw picked up. You played it like you don't have a queen so I expect he knows he's ahead and I fold.

i'm not sure what I'll do on the turn whether c/c or c/f or bet i think I may just fold 80% or c/call or bet occassioanlly there TBH being OOP 3way.

[have it all]

i'd call depending on how long it took you to call the turn.

[jackatwork]

I'd usually fold the turn although I don't think calling occasionally is bad. Definitely fold the river though.

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have folded on the turn. I think it is very possible that BB went for the c/r assuming the BTN would c-bet but missed his chance. Now he is trying to get some value out of his hand. I dont see why this cant be a queen, boat, or mayybeee a ten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. This line looks pretty strong. Best case scenario he has KJ but I still fold turn here.

[maSkraP]

i usually fold these low pockets on the turn. generally, fold these if you don't hit set to aggression (provided you have no reads). Since he raised preflop, he generally will have something like any pockets or some broadway cards most of the time. Do you really see him betting like this with low pockets or absolute crap on the turn? Maybe, but I don't. Unless he has some undeserving balls to raise this with those hands. I say fold.

But heck, we make calls we regret all the time and on the river, I say it's a definite fold. I remember reading Pokey's well once and he mentions one should bet monsters with monster hands on the river b/c most people will take it as a bluff. And you know what? It works beautifully. If I was in villain's position and had the Q, I would bet half pot on turn like villain and if my opponent calls, I would bet river ridiculously to make it look like a mad bluff.

All in all, I say you're beat most of the time here (turn and river) and I would fold this. =)

[AZplaya]

meh I usually convince myself he has KJ and snap, then smash something when he flips over trips. This is usually trips or air though.

On a side note, anyone like turning our hand into a bluff and c/ring his weak sauce turn bet to about $10?

[Profish2285]

[ QUOTE ]
meh I usually convince myself he has KJ and snap, then smash something when he flips over trips. This is usually trips or air though.

[/ QUOTE ]

See this I dont understand though. Why cant this be a boat or a ten sometimes as well? The only air hand is KJ. I just dont see why everyone is convinced this is air as opposed to simply villain missing a c/r.

[whyzze]

KJ/J9/56/heart draw all missed.

i think calling is slightly +EV. I cant see him betting pot with a 10, nor a Q when its totally obvious you dont have one. Since its totally obvious you dont have one, call is fine.

[billip62]

I would fold this on the turn, there arn't enough ways to win the pot. You really need a check check on the riv because there's no way to tell if you good considering the riv is going to be another overcard most of the time. Insta fold on the river as played.

my line with small pp, flop a set, c-bet in position, or check fold.

[Pokey]

It's hard to decide if BB missed his check-raise on the flop or if he woke up with a hand on the turn. Some strong Q or a set are certainly possibilities, here, but so are two hearts or even A4.

The turn bet was relatively small, so it might have been a probe to try and steal an orphaned pot -- that's always a possibility. Villain figures that a 4 didn't hit the preflop raiser and that you already said you didn't have anything worth pursuing, so he's going for it. Because of all that, calling the turn seems appropriate to me, but only because you're closing the action.

On the river I'd fold. Unknowns generally don't bluff with a pot-sized bet; rather, they bluff with a half-pot bet. If he'd dropped $5 on the river, I'd call it. As it stands, I'm moving on. Even if villain is panic-betting his T he's got me beaten, and I think villain's range is loaded towards two-pair and trips which beat me soundly. I've got no folding equity unless I'm ahead, and I think I'm behind more than 2/3rds of the time, so I let this one go.

Note that if you change that T to a 5 and I call this river bet.