50NL: 2-pair facing a shove on the flop vs. a donk

[thing85]

Villain is 58/7.5/2 over 147 hands.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker (http://www.leggopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

UTG: $87.55
MP: $31.10
CO: $98.50
Hero (BTN): $49.25
SB: $41.70
BB: $68.85

Pre-Flop: J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.50, MP calls $2.50

Flop: ($9.75) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $84.55 and is All-In</font>, MP folds, Hero?

I'm getting like 1.25 to 1 here and villain is pretty unpredictable. I haven't seen him do anything crazy, but I play 9 tables and don't watch him in hands that I'm not involved with. He limps PF, so I'm thinking AK, AQ, JJ+ is outside of his range. Even if I am behind here, I have 4 outs for a full house as well as a back door flush draw (worth maybe 1 out?) I'll put his possible range in poker stove, but I want to see what others think and/or if the range I put him seems accurate. Output:

Board: Kh Jd Qd


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.766% 60.44% 02.32% 123263 4741.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 37.234% 34.91% 02.32% 71195 4741.00 { TT, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }



According to this, a call would be bad, but I'd like to hear other thoughts on his range and/or my play.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Jd Qd


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.766% 60.44% 02.32% 123263 4741.00 { QhJh }
Hand 1: 37.234% 34.91% 02.32% 71195 4741.00 { TT, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }



According to this, a call would be bad, but I'd like to hear other thoughts on his range and/or my play.

[/ QUOTE ]A call is bad as a 62% favorite? I think he has a pair+draw alot, bigger two pair sometimes, and rarely a straight. I call.

[Check_The_Nuts]

I'd fold pretty fast and I basically think he never has the draw.

[bsball8806]

You raised preflop, so he has to assume that this board probably hit you pretty hard. I think this c/overshove is his way of trying to maximize value here, before any more cards could come and kill his action. I'd fold this

I also think you have overestimated the number of hands he'll make this play with.

[Micro Donk]

and "43s" is going to assume any suited 43s. so your pokerstove is way off

[thing85]

lol, I just realized my mistake in both inputting the ranges and interpreting the output it gave me. Ignore what I wrote for the Poker Stove analysis.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
You raised preflop, so he has to assume that this board probably hit you pretty hard. I think this c/overshove is his way of trying to maximize value here, before any more cards could come and kill his action. I'd fold this

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my initial thought, but do you think fish like this guy would think on that level? I guess it's possible. If he puts me on a top pair or 2 pair type hand and flopped a monster, don't you think he'd try to extract more value from me rather than just shoving?

[thing85]

Also, if someone can run what they think is an appropriate Poker Stove analysis, I'd be interested in seeing it.

[bsball8806]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You raised preflop, so he has to assume that this board probably hit you pretty hard. I think this c/overshove is his way of trying to maximize value here, before any more cards could come and kill his action. I'd fold this

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my initial thought, but do you think fish like this guy would think on that level? I guess it's possible. If he puts me on a top pair or 2 pair type hand and flopped a monster, don't you think he'd try to extract more value from me rather than just shoving?

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if this guy is a superdonk, my guess is that he realizes that this is more often than not a good flop for our hand. That being said, is he sophisticated enough to make the play, given that he thinks you probably like this flop, to overshove in hopes to get you to call against his monster?

On the other end of the spectrum, maybe he has a hand like 10 9, KQ, KJ, or even JJ that he doesn't really know how to play postflop, so he just overshoves so he won't have to make any more hard decisions.

I think if we call, we're most likely a coinflop at best, and drawing to a 4outer more of the time.

[PayoffWiz]

This really is a no-brainer...especially with 100BBs. Call.