50NL AQ tough spot

[antzzor]

Hi

villain is 13.5/9/3 over 460 hands
Seems pretty solid in general, dont really have any reads on him, I think he's a multitabler.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Full Tilt (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-FullTilt.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($87.65)
MP ($187.20)
Hero ($57.80)
SB ($50.25)
BB ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.25.

Flop: ($3.75) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $9</font>, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($21.75) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $13.5</font>, Hero calls $13.50.

River: ($48.75) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $25 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $25.

Final Pot: $98.75

[Profish2285]

I fold turn here. His stats dont indicate that hes going crazy with AJ. The other possibility is he is on a flush draw or straight draw, but again, someone who plays 13% of his hands probably doesnt have 87. I just think youre beat here much more often than not.

[homeslice]

given his stats, I can find a fold on the flop, I'm folding the turn fo sure....

[traz]

I either fold the flop or shove the turn

[thing85]

The flop call is marginal, considering there is really only 1 or 2 turn cards that will make you like your hand more, and a whole bunch that will look scary.

Villain seems really nitty, so a check/raise on the flop is a pretty strong signal. I might still call the flop to see if he shows weakness on the turn or hope for a Q or another A.

When he leads the turn for &gt; 1/2 pot, he has a hand. This isn't a draw putting out a blocking bet. You have to ask yourself, does he bet anything that TP2K can beat? The answer is most likely no. He flat called PF, so this is most likely a 2-pair/set hand, probably 66, 99, or A9s.

If you've been stealing a lot and have a pretty aggro image, villain might (but not often) make this play with AJ. Doesn't happen often enough to warrant a turn call.

By the river, I probably make this call. Let's consider his range to be: 66,99,AKs,AKo,A9s,A6s. Poker stove shows our equity on the river to be:

Board: 9h 6c Ac 7s Qc

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.653% 64.65% 00.00% 343238 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 35.347% 35.35% 00.00% 187658 0.00 { 99, 66, AKs, A9s, A6s, AKo }

So, by the river, we're actually ahead of his range, definitely enough to call getting 3 to 1.

Here's how our hand looks on the turn:

Board: 9h 6c Ac 7s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 06.015% 06.01% 00.00% 29446 0.00 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 93.985% 93.99% 00.00% 460117 0.00 { 99, 66, AKs, A9s, A6s, AKo }

As you can see, we only have 6% equity on the turn, making a call terrible. Even if you add AJ into his range, our equity is still only 34%, so a call would still be incorrect.

Hope that helped.