TPTK +gs meets co-ordinated broadway flop and feels some heat

[matrix]

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker (http://www.leggopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

UTG: $47.84
CO: $62.69
Hero (BTN): $60.23
SB: $128.06
BB: $63.27

Pre-Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $10</font>, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($24.50) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $15.50</font>, Hero ???

Hero has been playing nitty and by the numbers cos since I sat a string of good hands have hit on the other tables I am playing and I've not paid much attention to this one. So I probably look a little on the WT side of TAG.

Villain is 31/8/5 loose preflop and fairly benign - but laggier postflop he is also running hawt and has had the goods every hand I've seen him SD - but rarely makes it to SD and is turning the opposition into roadkill.

I have no eyed ear if he 3bets AK preflop and wouldn't rule AK out but I am fairly sure I am ahead on the flop and I call with position - (I'd 3bet here OOP I think)

Whats the best plan on this turn? - a chunk of his range just zoomed past me - I'm drawing dead if he flopped a set and pretty dam thin if I am now behind.

On the other hand this is his standard play on this table most of the time and he can't be doing this every time with a good hand - so he's bluffing a decent chunk.

If I call I'm facing a chunky river bet almost always.

call and plan to call on any non J river thinking he's VB a worse hand or bluffing enough to just let him continue.

push? and get value for my best hand?

fold?

and how different should my decision be if the turn card is a brick - (is the T a brick?)

[bozzer]

i'd quite like to fold this on the flop:

Hand 0: 64.507% { JJ-TT, AKs, KJs+, QTs, JTs, 98s, AKo, KJo+, QTo, JTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 35.493% { AcQd }

but it's close on immediate odds (but obviously we have RIO). It's tough to lay down TPTK so someone aggro but this is a pretty good board for it.

i am folding the turn. the T/images/graemlins/club.gif doesn't change that much but he keeps betting and we now have less chance to improve.

[members_only]

'I am fairly sure I am ahead on the flop'

'this [c/r then bet turn] is his standard play on this table most of the time'

looks like at least a call then?

edit: yea the t is a brick imo

[Profish2285]

I fold flop and turn. I think there are much better boards to go to war on than this one.

[traz]

Depending on how aggro he is, you're still ahead of alot of hands. I don't have stove on the computer I'm on but I'd think alot of his range includes a pair + oesd, possibly just a bare osed depending on his play.

If I call the flop I probably call this turn, because not much of his range is helped by a T, except AT/KT/9T/8T. But calling the flop would depend on what I've seen him raise the flop with

[matrix]

hmmm.

I folded the turn.

I know that TPTK vs lagtard = effectively the immortal nuts, but I dunno I have not been watching this table as closely as I would normally - but something about this made me feel at the time that I was beat so I went with my gut and folded.

Also I call the flop c/r partly to see what kind of bet he throws at me on the turn. Obv I check thru if he checks to me but in general is that ever a good idea?

i.e. how often do villains tend to shutdown on teh turn if their flop bluff is called and they don't improve?

[Profish2285]

Im not sure I like the flop call for that reasoning. I think villain is most definitely capable of firing turn again with air if thats what he had. The board is so coordinated that I cannot feel comfortable calling two streets with tptk which is why I fold the flop. Realistically there are only 6 outs that can come out that we really want to see, otherwise we are just stuck calling down hoping for the best.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
I think villain is most definitely capable of firing turn again with air if thats what he had.

[/ QUOTE ]

True - but being capable of something doesn't mean you follow through with it everytime. As a rough ballpark guesstimate would you say villain dbl barrels this type of board with air after a c/r that didn't work. 50% 70% 90% ??

Also I don't want to fold my draw on teh flop. I gots a 1/10 shot of turning the straight, and if the turns a total brick and he fires again I feel more comfortable calling down (obv if I call turn I am committed to calling a river bet with stacks being what they are)

[Profish2285]

With his stats, Im going to say 50% of the time with pure air he will fire again. However, if he has a hand like KT I think we are looking at him betting again like 90% honestly. The problem is that there are a decent amount of bad turn cards, as we see. Also like you said, if we call the flop bet, and a turn bricks, we probably have to call that too, which leads us to call a blank river. And I REALLY do not want to put my stack in the middle with this board. I understand thats its tptk, and against a maniac it is obviously a great hand, but this board is gross and Im just saying that there are many better boards to felt tptk or tpgk than this one.