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View Full Version : 25NL Resonable line with a draw?


billip62
11-11-2007, 12:08 PM
Villian is 25.5/12 with flop aggro of 1.33 after 51 hnds

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker (http://www.leggopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

Hero (UTG): $29.85
CO: $12.20
BTN: $28.55
SB: $24.40
BB: $25.50

Pre-Flop: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($4) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.50</font>, BB calls $2.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $13</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $23.40 and is All-In</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $10.40

The call is manditory, I think I'm getting the right price, but the raise might be questionable. I think this is definately a high variance play, but maybe justified give how dry the board is.

whyzze
11-11-2007, 12:10 PM
this is fine. FE looks good and you probably have a ton of outs. If you call you aren't getting paid if you hit. I like.

Waingro
11-11-2007, 01:11 PM
Hm I pokerstoved it vs a pretty generous pushing range for sb and I got 35% equity. So you lose 4 bucks everytime you get it in on the flop and you win $9 when everybody folds. Doesn´t sound too bad. But my question is, what better hand does villain bet/fold into 3 people enough to make raising better than calling? You think villain folds top pair? A pair of nines? Raising might be easier to play, but I like a call on the flop. You have position on these yahoos. See what they do on the turn.

billip62
11-11-2007, 01:32 PM
I agree, the raise is defineately more marginal than I would like. To be honest the table was so erratic that I wouldn't even like to speculate on ranges for this hand, but needless to say I think the guy flatting on the flop could have absolutely anything and I wouldn't put A2-A5 past them both. 7's of any kind probably make up less of their range then second or third pair given that they would be less likely to play an 10 7 than say a weak ace.

I think it's pretty obvious that the ship is a set which is the strongest holding that seems plasible. The straight is not really likely, even 2 pair is really long odds. basically I was thinking I'd get called by top pair, and ship the turn or a set would felt it and I'd just have to nail the draw.

So the question then becomes, how often am I up against a set here?