25NL: 15 outs facing AI push, 2 plyrs behind

[OSUGreg1983]

Tough spot IMO. Players behind could have higher flush draws, but most of the time dont I assume to have 15 outs? Is the bet small enough to call? No stats on villain, but obv doesn't matter b/c I'm on a pure draw. Only getting 1.9-1 from the pot on a 2.1-1 draw. Is this close enough? Further, is my math right?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker (http://www.leggopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

BTN: $25.15
Hero (SB): $31.30
BB: $33.40
UTG: $12.75
CO: $9.65

Pre-Flop: 8/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1.25) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $0.75</font>, UTG calls $0.75, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.50</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $0.75, UTG calls $0.75

Turn: ($7.25) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">CO bets $7.90 and is All-In</font>, Hero

[Lego05]

I'd fold. No odds and no guarantee people behind call. + they could raise + I think decent chance at least one of them has some clubs.

[OSUGreg1983]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. No odds and no guarantee people behind call. + they could raise + I think decent chance at least one of them has some clubs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do agree there's chance a player behind me could have higher clubs + someone could raise. But there's also a slim chance they could have lower clubs (complicates matters b/c now i have to re-evaluate my outs) with a lower end combo draw.

BUT, I DO have odds here already so I don't have to rely on players behind calling to further the odds. Every book I've read says if you're that close (getting 1.9-1 from the pot on a 2.1-1 draw) it becomes a judgement call.

I value your input and would like to hear from others as well.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Every book I've read says if you're that close (getting 1.9-1 from the pot on a 2.1-1 draw) it becomes a judgement call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Just ignore your books and think about that for a minute with some common sense.

Let's flip a coin. Every time I win you give me $1.01 and every time you win I'll give you $0.99. We can have a computer simulation run it billions of times a day. You wanna? It's close to being correct for you to do.


When you are close to having odds for a call all that means is that you don't have odds for a call. Whether it's -.2%ev or -25%ev it is still a minus expectation.


We aren't playing horseshoes or bocci ball here.

[creamfillin]

Fold because:
incorrect odds/you're clubs could be dead
people are likely to push behind you

[OSUGreg1983]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Every book I've read says if you're that close (getting 1.9-1 from the pot on a 2.1-1 draw) it becomes a judgement call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just ignore your books and think about that for a minute with some common sense.

Let's flip a coin. Every time I win you give me $1.01 and every time you win I'll give you $0.99. We can have a computer simulation run it billions of times a day. You wanna? It's close to being correct for you to do.


When you are close to having odds for a call all that means is that you don't have odds for a call. Whether it's -.2%ev or -25%ev it is still a minus expectation.


We aren't playing horseshoes or bocci ball here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point could have been made more politely, but thank you I now understand it's a losing/break even long run call.

Please remember OP's post due to situations they are unsure of, and the person giving suggestions is in a position to provide direction, not to belittle. We're all on here to learn-not to have the last word.

Lego I value your input as I see you give good advice on a routine basis, so I will put this knowledge to practice.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Every book I've read says if you're that close (getting 1.9-1 from the pot on a 2.1-1 draw) it becomes a judgement call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just ignore your books and think about that for a minute with some common sense.

Let's flip a coin. Every time I win you give me $1.01 and every time you win I'll give you $0.99. We can have a computer simulation run it billions of times a day. You wanna? It's close to being correct for you to do.


When you are close to having odds for a call all that means is that you don't have odds for a call. Whether it's -.2%ev or -25%ev it is still a minus expectation.


We aren't playing horseshoes or bocci ball here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point could have been made more politely, but thank you I now understand it's a losing/break even long run call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sorry.

[Waingro]

I´d fold the flop.