TT raised on raggy flop

[z28dreams]

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker (http://www.leggopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

Hero (CO): $28.60
BTN: $30
SB: $41
BB: $25.35
UTG: $13.65

Pre-Flop: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $6.15</font>, Hero ???

Do I peel one here or just fold? There aren't a lot of 2nd best hands that raise here except maybe A9/T9/98. However, it's also a raggy board and he has LAG stats.

Villain is running around 28/25

[Hail Eris]

I prob call and c/rai non diamond turns.

[Profish2285]

I guess I will just respond the same why I pm-ed ya. I crai on a non diamond turn all day against this villain. He seems decently aggro so he could easily be making this move with diamonds or a 9. I dont want to push weaker 9's off so I will let him hang himself a little bit. Pushing on this flop could get a weaker 9 to fold, meanwhile if villain puts in two decent size bets he might feel committed by that point and pay off with a hand he normally wouldnt have. If a diamond hits the turn and he has a 9, he probably will have to check behind unless he has a strong diamond to go along with it.

[EMc]

[ QUOTE ]
I prob call and c/rai non diamond turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line

[z28dreams]

What's your line if there's no FD on the board?

You realize that when he calls our preflop raise, his range that includes diamonds is only like 2% of 25%, or around an 8% chance that he's holding diamonds here.

[Profish2285]

That is why I also spoke about the top pair hands. Why pressure him if he holds a nine here? I should actually change what I said a little, Im not going to crai on a 9 turn either obviously.

[z28dreams]

I'm going to run through an analysis here, assuming he has a pretty broad range of calling a PFR from the button.

The range will be broken down into the following:
- hands that crush us
- hands that are about even with us
- hands that we crush

Total range that's capable of a raise here, not including bluffs:

Crush Us:
33,55,99-AA

He's slightly ahead (big draws)
Adxd, KdTd-KdQd, QdTd-QdJd, JdTd, 7d6d, 8d7d, 6d4d

Hands we're ahead of:
A9,T9,98o

The problem here is that almost any flush draw also has extra outs against us in the form of overcards or straight draws.

I think a fold might actually be better here. Let me play with poker stove and see what I can come up with.

[Hail Eris]

You're really underestimating how often a player like this will have a naked flush draw, straight draw, or complete air when he raises a cbet on this board.

[Profish2285]

Youre forgetting K9,97, and possibly J9. With his stats, it could even be 88/77 thinking that you did not connect with this flop.

[z28dreams]

Hail: What naked flush draws here don't also include overcards or a possible straight draw?

Complete air is also DEFINITELY in his range though, which leans me towards a call / reeval on turn line here.

[z28dreams]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

76,230 games 0.005 secs 15,246,000 games/sec

Board: 3s 5d 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.354% 42.73% 00.62% 32576 472.50 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 56.646% 56.03% 00.62% 42709 472.50 { 99+, 55, 33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, T9s, 98s, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d4d, A9o, T9o, 98o }