OESD in 3bet pot

[Tawbor]

Villain was 35/22 31 hands,hadn't 3bet before, Hero Att Steal 42%

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker (http://www.leggopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

Hero (CO): $51.55
BTN: $49.25
SB: $38.80
BB: $20.75
UTG: $91.40
MP: $58.25

Pre-Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($10.75) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $8</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $46.55 and is All-In</font>

[pixz]

I dont like it
He prolly just instacalls with any high overpair which are his most likely holdings. You cant get any hand that beats you to fold here.
Fold pf

[WhiteWolf]

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Fold pf

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Agreed. Your steal attempt with an easily dominated hand just got raised by someone with position on you. Calling is just going to lead to compounding mistakes post-flop

[gumpzilla]

I actually think this is pretty good. You'll frequently have 11 outs, some backdoor flush possibilities, and despite what the others say I think you'll have pretty good FE. EDIT: And yeah, you should probably fold PF a lot of the time here.

[SDone]

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Fold pf

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Agreed. Your steal attempt with an easily dominated hand just got raised by someone with position on you. Calling is just going to lead to compounding mistakes post-flop

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On the plus side, you're folding everything here but pp's, so if he doesn't have a pp you're good here. And even against a pocket pair you've got outs.

[AZplaya]

I really don't like pre flop, I don't mind calling with Axs in position but this isn't a hand I want to play in a 3 bet pot OOP.

As played flop c/r ai is perfect imo, your equity against an overpair is about 42%, and with the dead money and even a tiny bit of FE this shove is +EV.

[yegon]

fold pf OOP

as played, you have a lot of fold equity so this should definitely be profitable

It's more likely he has unpaired overcards than a pocket pair as there are more combinations of them

[PepsPersson]

Im going to skip preflop, since everyone has already commented on that. This may be a lengthy post, I dont know, but I am going to go somewhat deep. Atleast for me /images/graemlins/smile.gif I can just now say that this play isnt as bad as it sounds from some of the posters. It may actually be the best line to use, according to villains hand range.

I put villain in this hand on TT+, AQo+ AQs+. This may be a bit tight, but he hasnt 3-betted earlier preflop and other than that, I have nothing to go for. So I'll use that range. Atleast it will get me the result for a push vs a tight 3 betting range whereas it will be even better if its EV vs a much more looser range.

TT+, that leaves 6+6+6+6+3 combinations. These will all call our all in. Depending on villain, he may fold TT and maybe even JJ occasionally, but I will count it as he wont ever do that. So far, 27 combinations will call us.

And AQo+ leaves us with 18 combos (I take one ace away since we have A4.) He will all fold these. AQs+ is 6 combos, whereas 2 combos will have a flush draw = never folding.

So, if I havent messed up anywhere, 29 combos will call, and 22 will fold.

22 times we will win 18.75$
29 times we will get called, and vs that range, we will win 29.53% times. So we will on average lose 21,27$ when getting called if we push all in (note that our push is only for 44,25 since that is all he has in his stack and not for 46,55. Almost always irrelevant but I was just pointing it out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Doing the math, 29 times, we will lose 21,27$, 22 times we will win 18,75 equals -204,33$/51=-4.01$

Turns out this move isnt as profitable as I first thought. I may have used his hand range to be tight... Would be easier if I was the one playing!!! If I put in AJo+ AJs+ this seems like a clear fold with a somewhat nice EV$.... around 1,82$. So my new thoughts are this, fold preflop, but since you call, push if you think his range is looser than my first range, and just check/fold if he is tighter or as tight as my range.

[subs]

fold preflop... as played... i like it

[Hail Eris]

Fold PF b/c you're OOP, he's aggro, etc.

Flop is perfectly fine imo, even he snapcalls with any decent overpair. That's not what we're trying to fold.

[matrix]

preflop is *horrible* especially given..

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Villain was 35/22 31 hands,hadn't 3bet before, Hero Att Steal 42%

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flop is sexytime. He folds whiffed OC's like AK we got 8 outs twice vs a flopped set if the board doesn't pair (and a set is unlikely given his 3bet pre) - and he snapcalls with any OP and we aren't even that unhappy if he has AA.

[spalding]

Flop is standard, preflop I'd fold.

[WhiteWolf]

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22 times we will win 18.75$
29 times we will get called, and vs that range, we will win 29.53% times. So we will on average lose 21,27$ when getting called if we push all in (note that our push is only for 44,25 since that is all he has in his stack and not for 46,55. Almost always irrelevant but I was just pointing it out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Doing the math, 29 times, we will lose 21,27$, 22 times we will win 18,75 equals -204,33$/51=-4.01$



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I think there may be an error in your calculations somewhere. Looking at what happens when we get called, I get:
29.5% you will win 55 (18.75 in the pot + the 36.25 he has left behind)
70.5% you lose 44.25

This yields an average EV of -14.97 when called, not the -21.97 you calculated.

This should make the EV of the push (taking your ranges as a given) as +1.92, pushing it back into the profitable range.

[PepsPersson]

Whitewolf: Thanks. Seems I forgot to include to calc the money he had left behind in my newly made spreedsheet. Thanks, will fix it now!