AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.

[matrix]

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker (http://www.leggopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

BB: $24.77
UTG: $101.89
Hero (MP): $55.78
CO: $38.91
BTN: $50
SB: $47.25

Pre-Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $2, UTG folds

Flop: ($5.75) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5.50</font>, BB calls $5.50

Turn: ($16.75) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($16.75) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $3.50</font>, Hero ?

can this board get any worse?

call and pay the man? or can I raise this at all on teh river for value /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Villain is a 40/7/2 lagtard.

[wingchunflush]

lol @ $3 into a $16 pot. I call but I am not happy about it

[Baintz]

I like a minraise on the river here, plenty of 2 pair or lower sets may be blocking this river and look you up and we easily fold to a 3bet.

Unless of course he is laggy enough to bluff raise the river, but I don't see him doing that on this board unless he is an utter maniac.

[Speedlimits]

bet turn
call river

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a minraise on the river here, plenty of 2 pair or lower sets may be blocking this river and look you up and we easily fold to a 3bet.

Unless of course he is laggy enough to bluff raise the river, but I don't see him doing that on this board unless he is an utter maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't like opening the betting again for BB. There are gonna be hands that he will be able to throw away, as well has him jamming.

His small bet could be a block, but it could be a poor attempt at value since hero checked behind turn and he's hoping you call w/ a big Ace.

[wingchunflush]

I think min raising is a pretty bad idea. There is a 4 straight out there, i think calling is the better action

[joseki]

I'd call. I could see an argument for betting the A, since your line looks like AK and there's not that much left behind, but i think you lose more than 50% of the time you get called. I suppose he could also fold 56s or something, but that doesn't help enough.

I also like the turn check. You're not ahead of his calling range and you're only folding worse. Plus, you could suck out on his set/2pr.

[Genesis]

The 9 looks scary on the turn, but it's not as bad as a T or a 5. I'm contemplating a bet on this turn because the most likely draw (OESD) still has not come in, and if for some reason he has a T we will not be able to improve to win the hand anyway. Seeing as though this opponent is a LAG, if he has a tendency to bluff-raise on a turn like this then I would check instead intending to call a small river bet. On the river I see no reason to raise because the Ace is a scary card for your opponent if he does not have the straight, so he may be able to fold pairs.

So, versus this opponent, I like your line assuming you called the river. Against a more straightforward opponent I would prefer a bet on the turn.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call. I could see an argument for betting the A, since your line looks like AK and there's not that much left behind, but i think you lose more than 50% of the time you get called. I suppose he could also fold 56s or something, but that doesn't help enough.

I also like the turn check. You're not ahead of his calling range and you're only folding worse. Plus, you could suck out on his set/2pr.

[/ QUOTE ]

not really true

[En Passant]

[ QUOTE ]
bet turn
call river

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet turn
call river

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf not at all.

[joseki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I also like the turn check. You're not ahead of his calling range and you're only folding worse. Plus, you could suck out on his set/2pr.

[/ QUOTE ]

not really true

[/ QUOTE ]

Enlighten me.

Given the previous action, a typical calling range on that board: 2pr, T's, 5's, sets, occasionally JJ-QQ, rarely KK, ??

Better hands that fold: maybe 2pr, diamonds+pair (not better, but would be good to bet against), ??

[ama0330]

Call river and nh

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet turn
call river

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf not at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

interested to hear your explanation here

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet turn
call river

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf not at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

interested to hear your explanation here

[/ QUOTE ]as am i. not really seeing a hand we beat calling a reasonable turn bet

[Logun]

any hand that got by that flop was more often than not improved on the turn. All the combo-draws just got there with 2 pair or better. You don't beat much of anything on the turn.

On the river, this is a call simply because you are now ahead of his range enough, but the board does stop us from raising. We beat all of his sets, all of his turned 2 pair.

Hands that beat us now, 9T, 56, A5, outside shot at TJ, and some wierd BD FDs

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

Hands that beat us now, 9T, 56, A5, outside shot at TJ, and some wierd BD FDs

[/ QUOTE ]

his range is waaaaay bigger - he's playing 40% of hands dealt remember.

re: betting turn

How would this not be a bluff? The only hands we might get value from are diamond flush draws that don't include a 5 or a T or overpairs JJ-KK given preflop he has the OP ~1/100 I'd guess and the fd that didn't hit a straight not all that often either - or am I missing something?

I was going to c/f this river then the A popped up - I think a raise on teh river might fold out 2pair/1pair hands and rarely a naked 5 perhaps.

[Profish2285]

I think there is no merit to raising/betting turn or river here. I definitely call that river bet and am thankful he let me see the showdown for that cheap. I dont think youre ahead here often but probably often enough getting those odds.

[ryang]

lol just call river

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet turn
call river

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf not at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

interested to hear your explanation here

[/ QUOTE ]as am i. not really seeing a hand we beat calling a reasonable turn bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess a lot of people think checking turn here is standard so I'll try to give some insight as to why betting is superior.

1)Your opponent is a 40/7/2. This guy is a huge station, as a general rule I will make super thin value bets vs them and NEVER 3bet them light/squeeze them light. Don't think your opponent plays any differently postflop when hes preflop stats are horrendous.

2) His calling range is so much wider than straights/2pair.
Here is a reasonable range for this guy
5x/10x/Jx/ANY pocket pair except 22-33./2pair type hands/fds.

This guy is horrible and will easily call with gut shots like J8 type hands and even pocket 4s. ANY flush draw is calling your turn bet and even higher pocket pairs. That range is &gt; than his straight/2pair calling range. Basically getting one street of value with an overpair against a huge station is giving up a lot if you do it whenever the board gets "scary."

3) You can even bet some rivers profitably but not all of them. Any non diamond river that isn't a J/4/5/10 you can be betting for value.