$50 check my FE

[bozzer]

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com (http://weaktight.com/)

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$56.15</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$16.60</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$37.66</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$54.35</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$49.50</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$43.00</font>)

Pre-flop: ($1.25, 6 players) Hero is BTN 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.5 ($16.10), <font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $2


Flop: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($6.5, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks ($14.10), <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG+1 calls $4

Turn: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($14.5, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks ($10.10), <font color="#0000cc"> Hero ($47.85)?</font>

villain is 35/0/2 over 30 hands.


if i shove i get a fold here more than one time in three, correct?

assuming that his call frequency here = his call frequency if i river a /images/graemlins/spade.gif, and i never win the pot if i miss, is it better to shove or check the turn?

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
if i shove i get a fold here more than one time in three, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Better question. If you had any kind of strong hand like a house, trips, even Ax, would you shove or would you make a normal sized bet?

[ama0330]

Wait I just noticed stack sizes. Take the free card, definitely. You have no FE. Check the board texture, i.e. bone dry, and the fact that the turn changes nothing with regard to his relative hand strength. He has no reason to fold anything that he called on the flop with.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if i shove i get a fold here more than one time in three, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Better question. If you had any kind of strong hand like a house, trips, even Ax, would you shove or would you make a normal sized bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would shove. see stack sizes.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if i shove i get a fold here more than one time in three, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Better question. If you had any kind of strong hand like a house, trips, even Ax, would you shove or would you make a normal sized bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would shove. see stack sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah just noticed, see my second post /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Lego05]

FE is dubious here especially since if he had a T there's zip chance he's folding that now. And he still isn't folding an A.

[bozzer]

you think average villains respect the ace enough to dump pps on the flop mostly?

[bozzer]

btw i reckon i make roughly

chance of hitting * his calling freq * $10

0.2 * 0.33 * $10 = +$0.66

on top of the current pot by checking when he has a roughly breakeven calling frequency for the turn shove.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
you think average villains respect the ace enough to dump pps on the flop mostly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not always...but usually especially if the pocket pair isn't paint which it is not likely to be here since he limped and that also means that there were at least 2 overcards on the flop if he had a pocket pair.

[Profish2285]

I have to agree with Lego here. IME, if a villain is bad enough to call this flop with a pp below the T, he is not going to be folding it on the turn either usually.

[bozzer]

Right i just solved this to get the general solution, but i'm not sure it's right.

assumption 1: he calls a 3flush river with the same frequency that he calls my shove on the turn. (not true but massively simplifying)

assumption 2: i can't win the hand unless i hit a flush.

assumption 3: i never bluff the river if i miss (not true lol).

if someone could check this i'd be very happy..

x = calling frequency

EV of checking = [0.2((x*$10)+$15)] = 2x + 3

EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$35)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = -3x + 15 - 15x
EV of shoving = 5 - 6x


grapically:

http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa43/slb62/ev.png


this suggests that shoving and checking have equal value at a calling frequency of 25% - if he calls more than that and checking has more value.

the thing that concerns me is that shoving is profitable until he calls 85% of the time. if someone could check this using whatever method they normally use to check FE that would be really awesome.

[checktheriver]

Yeah there's a tiny mistake in the shove EV.
[ QUOTE ]
EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$35)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = -3x + 15 - 15x

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$25)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = 15-20x.

So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x &lt; 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x &lt; 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%.

[/ QUOTE ]

no chance imo.

[Profish2285]

I really think there is no way he is folding here almost 1/2 the time. Nothing has changed from the flop to the turn from villain's perspective and he is short stacked on top of that.

[Antinome]

x=call %

0=x[(his equity=~.75)($you lose by calling=-10.10)+(your equity=~.25)($you win=24.6)]+(1-x)[24.6]

0=x[-7.575+6.15]+24.6-24.6x

0=-1.425x+24.6-24.6x

26.025x=24.6

x=24.6/26.025

x=.93

he has to call &gt;93% to make shoving -EV. It depends some on what you think his equity when he calls is, but shoving can't be bad.

[Unknown Soldier]

check

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
check

[/ QUOTE ]

Click here (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/brevity)

[kolotoure]

Why are we assuming all of our outs are good? and what hands call flop and fold this turn

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x &lt; 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%.

[/ QUOTE ]

no chance imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree, he's so short, he prob won't fold JJ here just because he wants to gamble probably.. just check and stack him on the river.

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]
and what hands call flop and fold this turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Gutshots, the odd stubborn pp and maybe sometimes A5 and below

Prob not the required 45% given OP's assumptions