25NL - set but that line is too strong...

[Micro Donk]

opponent around a 60/0 over a tiny sample

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

Hero (SB): $28.10
BB: $21.85
UTG: $21.50
CO: $19.20
BTN: $26.90

Pre-Flop: 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $0.75</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.25) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, BB calls $3, UTG folds

i meant to donk into him but i hit check on accident

Turn: ($8.75) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6.75</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $13.50</font>

is this just a cooler (my bet pot commited me) or is there a way out of this line?

[catoandtonic]

His line is scary, but villain is obviously clueless. You would have 4.25 effective left after calling, so your pushing or folding 11 to win 29. Your not getting odds to fill up, but combined with the times villain has AK, AQ, AJ, A8 or something weird make this a shove for me.

I don't see anyway of folding a set for the amount we have left. We are pot committed and I don't get away from this for much more money even.

[TilTandWiN]

Unless the board is 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and im holding 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif I'm never folding a set. This is obviously unrealistic - but the message that I'm trying to get accross is that at 25NL dont sweat the nuts all the time - alot of people are retarded and your set will always be ahead of their range.

Then again I cant think of a stronger line. Brave fold if you make it.

[Micro Donk]

bump

[Profish2285]

I will try to respond but I really am unsure here. I am guessing thats why you arent getting too many responses also. His line here indicates a flush obviously. But, with the amount of money already invested, coupled with this ever being a pair and nut flush draw, it becomes a clear call. If this was deeper than 100 bb's I guess you could find a fold. But the fact is that he started out with 87 bb's, and I dont find myself folding sets for 87 bb's tbh.

[Profish2285]

Im gonna bump this for micro donk because I am really curious what everyone says here as well. I think this is a very difficult spot and any advice would be appreciated.

[Nemesis69]

I'm shoving here all day. I think we're ahead of his range 80% of the time. Can we really give him credit for a flopped flush? I think villian will show lots of Ax with another big diamond, or AJ....

[bingrich]

Push

Half your stack in there against what looks like a fish. He could still be drawing to the flush. Villain's line does look strong but I think I'm going broke here. If he flopped a flush it's a cooler. I had a bunch of them tonight.

[Profish2285]

Villains line doesnt just look strong, its the strongest line I could think of. If he does this with a draw often then hes a maniac.

[bingrich]

I'm tired and misread part of the action. I'm more unsure now. Yeah it does look like a flush. Still don't know if I can fold it.

[bingrich]

I guess we call turn, c/f unimproved river. Pretty disgusting spot.

[catoandtonic]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess we call turn, c/f unimproved river. Pretty disgusting spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

bing,

We would only have $4 effective stack left and $35.75 pot on river. I dont think calling turn is a viable option.

[bingrich]

yeah that's true... can you see villain having anything other than a flush though? We have odds to draw to boat/quads which is why I said call. But I guess we can't fold river w/ 4 left... alright I've gone full circle to my first post.

Push. Either way we can't fold. Just depends when you want to give him the last 4.

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
Villains line doesnt just look strong, its the strongest line I could think of. If he does this with a draw often then hes a maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]

This guys stats indicate he might be mildly retarded. He probably thinks Ax is good here. This is the easiest shove ever.

[Profish2285]

Its a tiny sample, his stats indicate very little except that he doesnt like to raise pf and is loose.

[catoandtonic]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah that's true... can you see villain having anything other than a flush though? We have odds to draw to boat/quads which is why I said call. But I guess we can't fold river w/ 4 left... alright I've gone full circle to my first post.

Push

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villain could have many hands. Higher set, 2 pair, AxXd, and Ax are all possible. We make a very small mistake the times he has a flush. We make a horrendous error the times he has AJ or the like. Set over set is something we just payoff.

[whoshotfirst]

Aren't we putting like 11 into a pot of about 44 if we go allin and get called? This spot looks really bad but he doesn't have to have something alse than a flush very often, and our equity is alredy better than 25%.

[bsball8806]

If he's a 60/0, that means he's never raising preflop. This includes hands like AK with the K of diamonds, and AQ with the queen of diamonds. His 60/0 line, even over a small sample of hands indicates he's not the brightest (10-20 hands?). We aren't getting odds to call here if we put him on a made flush, but honestly I think he could have a ton of hands that we beat. He could have the two aforementioned hands. He could even have AJ and is now raising since the 4th diamond didn't hit the board.

For &lt;100 BB's I don't ever fold this, especially against a donk.

[bsball8806]

I'd be interested in knowing exactly how many hands this 60/0 sample is over..?

[whoshotfirst]

I mean even i he always has the flush our equity is around 33% on the turn, right?

[bingrich]

We are getting odds to call against a flush with a little left afterward. Our equity on the turn against a flush is closer to 20% I think. 10 outs x 2= 20

[Khumalo]

I can't believe how much concern there is in this thread about a hand like this. Your job on this board with your hand versus this type of villain (and those effective stack sizes) is to get the money in as soon as possible, no matter what line villain takes. Be happy to do so on the turn. It is silly to rule out pair+draw, 2 pair, whatever type hands from our opponent's range -- his line *looks* like he's milking for pure value, but he may be going for value with worse than a flopped flush, or just making disconnected moves -- pot odds/remaining stacks on the turn (as well as the more general principles mentioned above) mean that stacking off there is pretty easy.

[whoshotfirst]

Yeah, you're right my mistake. Stove sais 22,7%.

[Check_The_Nuts]

Your only other option is check/call lead river.

It'd be weird to take that line tho. But it is your other option.

[bingrich]

I think Khumalo is right. That was my first reaction to the hand. Set + fish= ARRR INNN.

The thing is we all know this was a flush since it's posted here and OP calls it a cooler. We all want to make the right read and villain's line is very strong. But when we take into account villain is a fish and we just about have odds even if behind, this decision isn't that hard.