NL 25 - QJ vs loose opponent

[reemas]

Opponent was about 51/14/.7. I had been about 11.0/11.0 after 30-40 hands at the table. I picked up QJo in MP.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

BTN: $23.95
SB: $23.65
BB: $37.40
UTG: $4.10
Hero (MP): $37.95
CO: $8.65

Pre-Flop: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.80</font>, CO calls $0.80, BTN folds, SB calls $0.70, BB folds

Flop: ($2.65) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $4</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

How to play at this point?

[Spurious]

i'd probably fold preflop, but depends.
call here and reevaluate on turn.
it puts you in a tough spot though.

[castigar]

Fold PF, Fold to his raise on flop. He doesn't bluff...he has 0.7 af.

[AFCBeer]

Nice reverse implied odds situation. I hate calling flop raises to check-fold the turn but this is probably the right move. The guy is pretty passive (small sample I know) so if he fires turn I think we are crushed.

[Profish2285]

I think this is close to a fold. His stats suggest he is loose passive and all of a sudden he is min raising. With his AF I think I could let this one go.

[Nick C]

Since he's so short-stacked, I am tempted to play for his stack, and versus a player with a little more of an aggression factor, I wouldn't hesitate.

This guy probably has Q8o or 83s or AQ or 88 or 33 or JJ, though. Which does give you a little chance of being ahead.

One thing that's beginning to puzzle me is why every donk seems to think the min-checkraise is a deceptive play. It's like, almost everyone does it, and the players who do it tend to either have a monster that they think they're being tricky about or they like to imitate this super-popular slowplay and try for folding equity on the cheap.

Which I suppose makes the play a little deceptive, until you figure out which type of player the opponent in question is.

[reemas]

im not sure i understand the AF stat. is this correct:

a player with a low aggression factor doesn't bet often. if he bets, it's unusual and he might be strong?

a player with a high AF might bet regardless of what he holds, and 2/3 barrel often. does he bluff often? calling him down or looking him up with a made hand can be profitable?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
im not sure i understand the AF stat. is this correct:

a player with a low aggression factor doesn't bet often. if he bets, it's unusual and he might be strong?

a player with a high AF might bet regardless of what he holds, and 2/3 barrel often. does he bluff often? calling him down or looking him up with a made hand can be profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

There can be complications, but you've got the basic idea.

Anyway, though, one thing AF does not take into account is bet size. So a guy who loves to make 25-cent donkbets into the preflop raiser or likes to make itty-bitty stabs at pots when checked to is going to have an AF that's somewhat artificially inflated.

Also, if a player is very loose, then he's generally going to be at least a little more aggressive than his AF seems to indicate, since he'll have junk such a high percentage of the time. Also, if the player does not raise much preflop, then c-bets are not going to account for much of his AF.

And if a player becomes short-stacked, then sometimes his play will become very erratic and he'll start playing more aggressively than he usually does. Some players will start frequently pushing all-in, for instance, whether their cards justify it or not. (In fact, sometimes you'll run into a player who will just start pushing all-in preflop every single hand until he either busts out or doubles up.)

[Sniiii]

This is why I don't raise with QJo in MP; it gets you into tricky situations. As played, I would call his raise on flop, and bet again on the turn, and be done with the hand with any further action from villain.

[Profish2285]

Cant do that sniii, villain only has 8 bucks so its push or fold time.

[Prodigy54321]

I think most of the people who responded didn't see that CO only has $8.65

push

[Profish2285]

I think making your reasoning for a push due to his smaller stack can be a major leak. If hes short but youre well behind more often than not, then you fold. You keep doubling up short stackers and im sure its going to dramatically affect your win rate. Just look at this guy's stats, they dont suggest he does this with a weaker top pair hand.

[Prodigy54321]

[ QUOTE ]
I think making your reasoning for a push due to his smaller stack can be a major leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? the size of his stack is the reason why we are getting a little better than 2:1 here. the size of his stack (along with his vpip) is the reason why I think he doesn't just fold to a c-bet with Q9 or even something like 99 or 87 sometimes...and it is also the reason why I think he doesn't just call our bet with those hands even though his AF is so low...

[ QUOTE ]
If hes short but youre well behind more often than not, then you fold. You keep doubling up short stackers and im sure its going to dramatically affect your win rate.

[/ QUOTE ]

not if you still win more than ~33% of the time

[ QUOTE ]
Just look at this guy's stats, they dont suggest he does this with a weaker top pair hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

as I mentioned above, I think his true AF here will be higher than what it shows because of his stack size( that is, he makes this minraise more often than he normally would simply because his stack is so short...IMO a person with a $9 stack does not just call our flop bet with something like Q9 or even something like 87 as much as he might when he had a larger stack..and I can't think of any ways that his AF would be skewed in the other direction because of a short stack.

listen, I'm not saying that he doesn't have us beat most of the time, I'm saying that we win often enough to get it in here on a little better than 2:1..and I think we show a profit

[Profish2285]

I understand what youre getting at, but I dont think we win even 33% of the time here. It would be closer getting 4:1 I guess though.

[Prodigy54321]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand what youre getting at, but I dont think we win even 33% of the time here. It would be closer getting 4:1 I guess though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Board: Qs 8c 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.650% 29.83% 05.82% 18603 3632.00 { QhJd }
Hand 1: 64.350% 58.53% 05.82% 36503 3632.00 { QQ+, 88, 33, AQs, KQs, Q8s+, AQo, KQo, Q8o+ }

I really don't see him having a tighter range than this very often...and I was generous in including AA-QQ IMO...and if those are in there, JJ-99 will probably be in there as well IMO

and this is a good time to once again talk about something that I don't think many people seem to understand

I'm going to make a a new thread about it

[Sniiii]

[ QUOTE ]
Cant do that sniii, villain only has 8 bucks so its push or fold time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, right, my bad.. Well, seeing he's short and his vpip is above 50, I'd end up pushing here. More often than not, this guy has a lower kicker than ours.

[Profish2285]

Im not sure that more often than not he has a lower kicker. In fact, much more often than not he has us beat. I guess the point prodigy was trying to make was that villain CAN show up with worse though. And the fact that he can show up with worse once in a while affects the equity enough to make pushing a profitable move. Everyone says push, but I dont care about that, I care about why. I think prodigy explained why, check out his other post.

[yegon]

I think playing QJo OOP with a shorstack with over 50% VPIP left to act behind me is a major leak

nevertheless we are in the hand and shortstacks play so weird, i have been in a similar situation many times and was shown anything from Q4s to 99, TT

also the sample size for his stacks is very small so his AF is nowhere near accurate

I just push here

[Sniiii]

[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure that more often than not he has a lower kicker. In fact, much more often than not he has us beat. I guess the point prodigy was trying to make was that villain CAN show up with worse though. And the fact that he can show up with worse once in a while affects the equity enough to make pushing a profitable move. Everyone says push, but I dont care about that, I care about why. I think prodigy explained why, check out his other post.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right; I was merely talking out of earlier experiences from these kind of situations. Whether that is a leak in my play though, I don't know; that's why I am playing uNL (even though ranking up in stakes)

[yegon]

I was given an advice not long ago on this forum:

against shorstacks play hands that have high top pair value and if you hit top pair play for stacks

we do not have that good a hand here but we have top pair decent kicker

it's a marginal spot though - the difference between folding and pushing is not big IMO so whatever you do it can't be a big mistake