Took a shot at the next level - what do i do here?

[Profish2285]

Villain is unknown. His stats are useless since theres been about 10 hands so far. I think this is the third hand I raised in a row.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

Hero (SB): $71.40
BB: $50
UTG: $70.50
MP: $48.35
CO: $47.25
BTN: $26.85

Pre-Flop: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.90</font>, BB calls $6.40, MP folds

Flop: ($15.55) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9.50</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $43.10 and is All-In</font>, Hero....

[Spurious]

What do you do at NL25?
Do the same thing here and adjust later if you think you should.

[Profish2285]

What would be your default for NL25? The reason I even ask this though is because the consensus seems to be that NL50 plays much more aggro, which can obviously influence the decision.

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is the third hand I raised in a row.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given the above, this is a very easy call.

[Profish2285]

Do players at NL50 notice things like this? Because to be honest, I dont think they do at NL25, and even if they do, I dont think they adjust too often.

[TonyRoflmao]

This is pretty tough without a good read. As you can see the equity changes radically if your opponent is only pushing with better hands and combo draws or KQo at worst. If they'll push with ATo, and a few flush draws then you're ahead.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

78,210 games 0.002 secs 39,105,000 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.703% 53.62% 00.09% 41933 68.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 46.297% 46.21% 00.09% 36141 68.00 { KK+, JJ-TT, 22, AhKh, AJs-ATs, JTs, 98s, 9h7h, 8h7h, AJo-ATo, KQo, JTo, 98o }


---

48,510 games 0.005 secs 9,702,000 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.443% 39.30% 00.14% 19066 68.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 60.557% 60.42% 00.14% 29308 68.00 { KK+, JJ-TT, 22, AhKh, JTs, KQo, JTo, 98o }

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
Do players at NL50 notice things like this? Because to be honest, I dont think they do at NL25, and even if they do, I dont think they adjust too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

People notice when you keep betting into them ... they might miss that you never play a hand, but they notice being raised a lot.

[Jw513]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is the third hand I raised in a row.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given the above, this is a very easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[HBomb]

For 100 BB's at $50 NL I'm calling this all day and twice on Sunday

[Profish2285]

What range do you put villain on then that makes this such an easy call? Note, the main villain was not the original pf raiser, he cold called my 3 bet.

[castigar]

I actually fold that. He could have TT,JJ,KK,AA..all of which beat us. If he has something like AhKh for a flush draw, we're an underdog.

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually fold that. He could have 22,TT,JJ,KK,AA..all of which beat us. If he has something like AhKh for a flush draw, we're an underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

[AFCBeer]

The fact its the BB with the shove makes the decision tougher. Its not his raise you were 3-betting but he cold called pre flop anyway. When he shoves he still has to be concerned by MP's hand.

[Profish2285]

mp folded pre

[AFCBeer]

OK sorry I really should read the HH more carefully. I still think the general point I was making applies though.

[Chomp]

I think villain can play this entire range this way:

Board: Jh Th 2c
Hand 0: 50.112% { QhQs }
Hand 1: 49.888% { JJ-TT, AhKh, AJs, JTs, AJo, JTo }

And that's not inclding a random bluff or KQ or JQ etc, all of which improves things for us. KK and AA makes it worse, but only 56%/43%.

It is very often the case that Stove tells us that an o/p on a setty/drawy/2pairy flop facing aggression in a raised pot has the equity to get it in. (BTW there's a theorem in this I am sure).

[vixticator]

People do silly things when they think you're robbing them and you have an overpair. Ignoring THAT, you are ahead of a bunch of [censored] that do this anyways. AJ/KJ should do this. Flush draw almost definitely does IMO. KQ, 89. Lots of draws all of which he can have. Only behind JT, 22, TT, JJ... really don't think KK/AA is much of their range. AQ may even be in there.

Not folding without more information.

[Profish2285]

This is a 3 bet pot tho. How many villains cold call a 3 bet with 89, KQ, 22, KJ, or even AJ?

[ICMoney]

From my experince people are not caling AT/AJ after there was a pfr and then a 3b and they are oop.

You need about 32.5% or so.

I think the most realistic range after he CR ai would prob be:

TT+,AhKh,KQs (21%)

Your equity goes up 1.5% if you add 22,jts.

You need to find about 10% more equity to call this.

QQ-TT,22,AhKh,KQs,JTs (29.3)



If he open shoved, maybe it less believable.


I don't think this is a snap like everyone is saying.

[vixticator]

Ugh, I didn't notice BB called and not MP. Disregard what I said.

My bad play has transfered over to posting too! Life doomswitch IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is the third hand I raised in a row.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given the above, this is a very easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put BB cold calling range here ? I expect to see TT-JJ here. Given that you have a kind of aggro image (raised 3 hands in a row) I probably still call.

[Profish2285]

So I guess youre folding here then?