Line for AJo with A on flop

[wems]

villian is 16/10/2

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

CO: $24.65
BTN: $34
SB: $34.65
BB: $24.75
Hero (UTG): $26.20
MP: $30.25

Pre-Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, MP folds, CO calls $0.85, BTN folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($2.80) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.25</font>, CO calls $2.25, SB folds

Turn: ($7.30) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, CO calls $6

River: ($19.30) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ?</font>

[Profish2285]

Bet like 9 i think. There arent too many combos villain can have with an 8 in it from the action.

[wems]

bet 9 and fold to a raise?

[Profish2285]

I dont want to say b/f as your odds will be pretty damn good, but I guess yea, you have to. If you think about the other lines, I think b/f is best. C/c cant be too great as I am not confident villain bets for you with worse on this board. I guess you could argue c/f, but that just seems weak to be honest. I dont think many villains bet this river without the straight, but how many straight combos are there? The only reasonable ones I can see are 78 and possibly 89.

[ronitonline]

If villian calls a bet, hes raising IMO, i dont think villian played AQ/AK this way, this is 2pair / straight if he is calling the river aka hes raising.
I just c/c and hope he bluffs.

[Profish2285]

You think a villain with those stats has two pair or even a straight here very often?

[ronitonline]

I'd expect villian to play a draw or a set more often in this spot then I'd expect him to play a weaker ace, or play a stronger ace this weak.

[Profish2285]

The reason I feel c/c is weak here is because if he is only going to bet/raise with two pair and sets, then there really is no point in c/c at all. Then it is just a c/f, but again, that seems a little weak doesnt it?

[ronitonline]

You can bluff river if you want profish, but were talking about valuebetting. You can't valuebet this villian here, I dont see what he calls with. That doesnt mean those hands are his only holdings, you could bet here and im sure villian folds a lot of the time. However if you check, villian could be leading random missed draws or betting floats, or making tiny valuebeds with 1010 / JJ. I am not saying this is super likely, but if theres anyway you want more value from a worse hand, c/c is the way.

Arguably you can c/f vs this oppenent but betting i think is just dumb.

[catoandtonic]

Betting this river is a bluff, because it sure isn't for value. We will win this in showdown like 1 in 15 times, maybe. Villain has AQ quite often here.

I am not confident that our folding equity justifies firing a bluff on this river. I would check/fold. We are beat and it is time to give up. If villain does hold AT, then there is a decent chance he will check behind as well.

I dont think this is weak. I think this is just realizing that the very bottom of villains range ties your holding. 90+% of his range wins.

[Bantam222]

I'm not so worried about the straight, more the fact that we are losing to most combos of Ax. We only beat A10, A4, A3, and A2. We also lose to sets.

He called our flop and turn bets so we have to assume he has some part of this board and not KQ or something like that. I doubt he would call with 1010 or something either so you can take those hands out of his range.

If we bet here are we hoping he has something like A10 and calls? are we trying to get a better hand to fold?

I hate this spot and i'm never sure what to do. If I bet and he pushes im like [censored] why did i put in so much money with TPGK. I usually find myself checking folding here unless he bets around 1/3 pot. ill usually pay that off.