50NL river bluff, yay or nay?

[STARSCREAM.]

I've been playing a regular ole 18/16/4 TAG game, villian seemed like a typical 50NL weakpassivedonk. Who bets this river here? Who bets it but bets less, or maybe even more?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

CO: $59.25
BTN: $63.50
SB: $59.65
BB: $50
Hero (UTG): $50

Pre-Flop: 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.75) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($11.75) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $11.75</font>

[Profish2285]

If he is passive then Im not too sure I like this. Villan can show up here with QJ, AJ, KJ, or a slow played JT on the river. Just because he checked behind turn doesnt mean he has nothing seeing as how you view him for being weak passive. Are you even confident villain will fold two pair here?

[apple11]

Seems like a spew to me

[cooker3]

I don't really like it as you get looked up light as this is such a common bluffing line

[bknollenberg]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like it as you get looked up light as this is such a common bluffing line

[/ QUOTE ]
agreed, and i know it's counter-intuitive but i'd probably be more likely to call a pot sized bet there with a marginal hand than i would somewhere around a 3/4-2/3 pot bet. there's been many times where i've snap called with A high in spots like this because you're representing no hand, given how the hand has played out, except really a J, but even that i think there would be more thought process to the bet sizing. and what are you calling on the flop with that has a J and then checking the turn.

[Shattered]

You're bluffing a passive donk on a board with 4 broadway with a bet/check/pot line. This is nay for like 5 different reasons.

[STARSCREAM.]

Good to know, any type of player you would make this bet against, I guess a very weak tight player?

[Profish2285]

Unless I get a read, and a good one at that, I am not doing this against any player at these levels. I guess you could do it against a tight player, but I still dont like making moves like this as theyre juts unnecessary for uNL.

[STARSCREAM.]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless I get a read, and a good one at that, I am not doing this against any player at these levels. I guess you could do it against a tight player, but I still dont like making moves like this as theyre juts unnecessary for uNL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking of ways to push players off of their hands at any level can never be defined as unnecessary.

[Profish2285]

You dont make money by pushing people off hands at micros, you make it by value betting in spots where the average uNL player does not. You also make money by folding in spots other players will not. While I am all for making moves, I think there are better boards to do it than this one, especially oop. I dont like making extensive bluffs at these limits in general tho. You will give so much thought to them, calculating ranges and figuring out what he will most likely fold. You will feel like you figured it all out, and then he calls you with two pair on this board. Then your brain bleeds trying to figure out why he played his hand that way, and how he called your bet. Save your brain the trouble.

Summary: You make money by making less mistakes than opponents. This is accomplished by value betting and folding correctly. This is not accomplished by trying to make donks fold.

[STARSCREAM.]

I'm not trying to justify this bet, I thought it wasn't too shabby at the time, the more I think about it, the more I dislike it. But to just generally say that you don't make money by bluffing at the micros isn't a type of statement that I can agree with.

Open up your mind to how you can take advantage of every possible situation, and don't necessarily auto respond to "This is uNL, everybody calls with everything".

As I do agree the majority of your wins will come from value betting hands where your opponents are obviously beat, never underestimate a good bluff, even at these levels. This is one of the few of my river bluffs that hasn't worked lately, as I usually have a very high river bluff success which I can guarentee you makes up for a small portion of my winrate.

[Shattered]

I think you find a bluff +EV in this spot close to never at micros, people &lt;3 calling down bluffy looking bets on 4-straight boards (for example, if you had KJ or 5c6c this line would've been great). Unless you have a read that villain is literally the biggest nit you've ever played with, this will not be profitable; Even weak/tight players will call with aces up here, not to mention the times they have a jack.

[STARSCREAM.]

The only reason at the time I thought this bluff was good at the time was because he checked the turn, I put his flop calling range more towards pocket pairs between 4-Q. That is all.

[Profish2285]

When I make moves, I almost always do it with outs, or with a good scare card when I am in position and villain checks to me. I also do it when I have a read that villain is capable of folding sometimes. I am not saying your bluffs will NEVER work, but for them to have any success they have to be done in very specific situations. This is not of those. I just find that I do not make much money at all from attempting moves in general. Even players who I find to be decent do not make the folds I expect them to after certain moves.

[STARSCREAM.]

One tip I can give you for making bigger bluffs in uNL is when the final bet is on the river, whether or not it is a flop-river or turn-river bluff. When it's on the flop-turn people tend to call down a lot more lightly chasing their slim odds. Whereas on the river they have no room to improve, they are much more willing to give up their weaker made hands and obviously their missed draws as well.

The fact that the weaker field in uNL doesn't anticipate bets on future streets is what makes bluffing on the flop-turn not as hot as it is in SSNL+

[Profish2285]

I am sure that has some merit as right now I dont think I ever bluff the river. I might give it a try, but I honestly still dont think its a huge part of a winrate at these levels. I think even if it works it still comprises only a small part of the winrate, and it also increases your variance.

[STARSCREAM.]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sure that has some merit as right now I dont think I ever bluff the river. I might give it a try, but I honestly still dont think its a huge part of a winrate at these levels. I think even if it works it still comprises only a small part of the winrate, and it also increases your variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

A huge part of your winrate, absolutely not, i'm not saying that it is. But if it can add even 1pt/bb to your winrate in the long run, than it's deffinatly worth it. If you miss a good bluffing opportunity that your opponents also miss, than you're making the exact same mistake that they are. And as we all know, making mistakes has a negative effect on our winrates.

If you'd like to PM me, I can send you a few hands where i've made some successful but very basic river bluffs if I can find them in my database. As I feel many players can benefit from the weak/tight players out there who are willing to fold because they have the 2nd nuts and somebody shoved.

[Profish2285]

Good points again, but I honestly will probably pass on the 1pt/bb for the reduce in variance I will see when I get called by randomness. I also dont even think the winrate is that high from the bluffs though, but I could be way off I guess. I would probably give it more like .5pt/bb.

[STARSCREAM.]

What's the point in reducing varience? You should never give up on equity to save yourself some swings. Unless you're on a limited bankroll and the money means a ton to you. Which i'm sure for most of us certainly isn't the case as this is uNL.

[Bantam222]

I get looked up by like A7 here every time.

[Xanta]

He's not folding Ax ever, let alone 2 pair. (Which of course makes a full pot a sweet bet with a jack)

[Profish2285]

This is what I thought, and why I figured bluffing here is useless. Even if you are winning right now by bluffing the river at uNL, there is always the chance youre running hot and encountering the very bottom of villain's ranges.