25NL - Tough flop decision, even with AA?

[JoseRijo]

In the 25K hands I've played since I got PokerTracker, I've never folded AA after the flop. Does this look like a good time to start? This was my third hand at the table, so no reads (yeah, everyone says that).

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

MP: $25.15
CO: $20.35
BTN: $26
SB: $22.55
BB: $4
Hero (UTG): $24.75

Pre-Flop: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $6</font>, Hero ???

[bored]

With reads I could fold, w/o them I probably call and CRAI a turn blank; c/f a nasty turn card and a strong bet.

[argy1182]

BLUF - we need some info on the villain's stats

but for now we'll make some very basic assumptions here assuming we don't have a lot of information on the villain. 6 handed, i would reraise with KK and QQ both from the button, even against a UTG raise of 4bb. 99 would warrant a call for most players, so that's a dangerous hand for this board.
KQ could be a likely holding, but at least you have some redraws to save yourself. And of course there is the chance he called with a 10J and you're in the hurt box. I would largely discount hands like K9 and Q9 unless he's been calling with that trash throughout the session.
So.....now you need to apply your own mathematics. According to your reads and the use of pokerstove, you can approximate your EV for each play. Personally, I would be on the line for either play just on instinct alone and would rely more heavily on the villain's previous patterns of aggression and commitment.
The important thing to realize is this - you are at the commitment threshold and your play here will either commit you to this hand or not.
Anybody run these numbers on pokerstove???

[oh well...]

Fold?? Board is rainbow we're basically only scared of 10J and 99. BTN is 3betting QQ and KK here preflop. I'd 4bet and be happy to call a shove. If he calls I'm jamming turn on a blank.

Forgot about KQ but doesn't change my opinion. I want it all in on flop.

[bored]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

91,080 games 0.005 secs 18,216,000 games/sec

Board: Kh Qs 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.002% 49.95% 00.05% 45494 47.50 { 99, AKs, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AKo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 49.998% 49.95% 00.05% 45491 47.50 { AhAs }

If you think he does this w/ AQ, AA has a slight edge.

I'd rather wait for a blank to come off on the turn so either pair+GS lose a significant amount of equity, or a bad card comes off and villain bets huge and we can fold.

[JoseRijo]

It isn't good. I really need to give him some junk to pull even.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
board: Kh 9d Qs
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhAc 35.21% 13,850 189
AK,AQ,KQ,99,JT 64.79% 25,561 189

board: Kh9dqs
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhAc 50.30% 43,181 285
AK,AQ,KQ,99,JT,
AJ,JJ,K9,KJ,QT 49.70% 42,664 285
</pre><hr />

[Shattered]

Bored, I think your ranges are far too loose. You can't put J9s, T9s, QT, QJ, etc. into his raising range without a decent read, let alone into an unknown's. It's also a bad idea to wait for the turn to blank before getting it in: Everything that was beating you is still beating you, you're less likely to get it in ahead (as in villain will call tighter with only one card to come), and you lose a ton when the turn isn't a blank.

I probably 3-bet to ~14$ and fold to a shove, but I'm not totally sure. Folding seems really weak/tight but can't be too bad as your RIO here is through the roof. I definitely don't call, though.

[monkeymaps]

what do you guys expect to get called by if we push the flop? KJ?

[bored]

[ QUOTE ]
Bored, I think your ranges are far too loose. You can't put J9s, T9s, QT, QJ, etc. into his raising range without a decent read, let alone into an unknown's. It's also a bad idea to wait for the turn to blank before getting it in: Everything that was beating you is still beating you, you're less likely to get it in ahead (as in villain will call tighter with only one card to come), and you lose a ton when the turn isn't a blank.

I probably 3-bet to ~14$ and fold to a shove, but I'm not totally sure. Folding seems really weak/tight but can't be too bad as your RIO here is through the roof. I definitely don't call, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think BTN is calling a raise with preflop? I think a pair+GS is reasonable for an unknown to put a weak raise in like this.

[Movelong]

with the raise on board like this u would be dead with AA

[Lou_Diamond$]

[ QUOTE ]
In the 25K hands I've played since I got PokerTracker, I've never folded AA after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

does PT tell you how mny times youve they've been delt to you? just curious

[Movelong]

wy ur guys dont put him on the ranges 99,kk,qq, kqs,aks.U got 25.470% and he got74.530% equity.

[JoseRijo]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think BTN is calling a raise with preflop? I think a pair+GS is reasonable for an unknown to put a weak raise in like this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't think his pot-sized raise looked weak, since the default raise at 10NL and 25NL seems to be a min-raise. It did seem like he was tempting a call, though.

[monkeymaps]

[ QUOTE ]
wy ur guys dont put him on the ranges 99,kk,qq, kqs,aks.U got 25.470% and he got74.530% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

????

discount KK and QQ cause no 3 bet pre
99 and KQ and JT are the three hands you have to worry about here.
I prob dont fold this flop but 3bet/push is pretty gross. prolly call flop and either c/r a safe turn or if villan bets huge on the turn I might just fold.

[JoseRijo]

[ QUOTE ]

does PT tell you how many times you've they've been dealt to you? just curious

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course! In 25,623 hands:
AA: 123 times
KK: 95 times
QQ: 115 times
JJ: 100 times

Expected number for each is 114 times.

[Arp220]

To him your flop bet looks like it could be a cbet having totally missed the flop. He could therefore raise if he's paired anything. But... he could also have a monster... so I'd reraise to about 15, and fold to a shove.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]

discount KK and QQ cause no 3 bet pre

[/ QUOTE ]

You know.. I hate when people say this when discussing a player with no reads. Just because decent and aggressive players reraise these hands here doesn't mean that you should assume all or even most players would.

This is a $25 dollar table. These tables are filled with passive players who never 3 bet. Or the 'tricky' people who smoothcall AA or KK.

I know I look for these players but, seriously, I'm sitting down with people who have stats like 65/1/3 or 75/0/.8 EVERY NIGHT. These players never 3 bet.

Regarding the actual hand- I think this is a pretty damn scary board for AA. And since he raised UTG, any player who's not braindead is going to realize that that flop is bound to have hit a lot of his raising range. The fact that he's getting raised despite all this information would lead me to indicate 1 pair is very likely NOT good.

[monkeymaps]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

discount KK and QQ cause no 3 bet pre

[/ QUOTE ]

You know.. I hate when people say this when discussing a player with no reads. Just because decent and aggressive players reraise these hands here doesn't mean that you should assume all or even most players would.

This is a $25 dollar table. These tables are filled with passive players who never 3 bet. Or the 'tricky' people who smoothcall AA or KK.

I know I look for these players but, seriously, I'm sitting down with people who have stats like 65/1/3 or 75/0/.8 EVERY NIGHT. These players never 3 bet.

Regarding the actual hand- I think this is a pretty damn scary board for AA. And since he raised UTG, any player who's not braindead is going to realize that that flop is bound to have hit a lot of his raising range. The fact that he's getting raised despite all this information would lead me to indicate 1 pair is very likely NOT good.

[/ QUOTE ]

im not saying he NEVER has KK or QQ but id assume he is more likely to have 99 or KQ than either of those hands that cant be that far off?

[Perk76]

[ QUOTE ]
To him your flop bet looks like it could be a cbet having totally missed the flop. He could therefore raise if he's paired anything. But... he could also have a monster... so I'd reraise to about 15, and fold to a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reraising to 15 and folding to a shove???? Gawd that would be bad. At that point your getting 4.5-1 to call the remaining 9.00.

[Arp220]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To him your flop bet looks like it could be a cbet having totally missed the flop. He could therefore raise if he's paired anything. But... he could also have a monster... so I'd reraise to about 15, and fold to a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]


Reraising to 15 and folding to a shove???? Gawd that would be bad. At that point your getting 4.5-1 to call the remaining 9.00.

[/ QUOTE ]



oops good point, didnt look at stack sizes...

I'd still reraise though. Lets put him to a tough decision and demonstrate early on that we're no pussies /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
im not saying he NEVER has KK or QQ but id assume he is more likely to have 99 or KQ than either of those hands that cant be that far off?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I agree. KQ and even K9 (we have no read... I always assume someone's more likely an idiot then not until I have some stats or developed a read) I'm not saying KK or QQ are likely, I just hate to see them completely discounted.

I think what is clear is that 1 pair is quite often NOT good here unless we know that the player is a complete donkey.

[bored]

I'm done discussing this hand, but

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do you think BTN is calling a raise with preflop? I think a pair+GS is reasonable for an unknown to put a weak raise in like this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't think his pot-sized raise looked weak, since the default raise at 10NL and 25NL seems to be a min-raise. It did seem like he was tempting a call, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

His raise isn't a psr it's more like a 2/3psr. And I think you guys are giving unknowns at 25NL too much credit.

[allyasia]

depend on the villian
for tight villian
i would reraise here to test him, if it comeback to me, i'll fold.
for loose villian
i would call the flop, and try to control the pot.
if he have top pair such as K-rag, you can beat,
if he have two pair, then you have 8 out to improve. so depend on my pot odds, i'll decide if i want to go forward or fold on the turn