50NL; TT OOP on 8c6sQsQh board

[Lego05]

Villian is 55/8/.9 over JUST 23 hands.

Edit: Oh btw converter doesn't take out rake. Pot on the flop is like $9 or something so my flop bet isn't really that small.



So I'm pretty comfortable with my decision here, but I'm wondering what people are going to say. I'm going to add a poll and put up some options.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($18)
Hero ($50)
BB ($64)
UTG ($41.85)
MP ($64.20)
CO ($9.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $2.50, Button calls $2.50.

Flop: ($9.50) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6.75</font>, UTG calls $6.75, Button folds.

Turn: ($23) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

[youngmachetes]

i voted c/f. it's a spot i def. have trouble with, and none of the other options sound good except for bet/fold (preferably smaller amount i guess). now go comment on my thread since you must be awesome (i saw your bbv thread) /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Genesis]

I'd be curious to see some more comments on this one. I went ahead and voted for bet 14 to 17 and fold to a raise. I'm the only one so far /images/graemlins/smile.gif My thought is with a .9 AF he's fairly passive so I don't think he pushes a flush draw over the top too often, more likely it's a Qx hand when that happens. We'll be getting 68:15 odds if he pushes though, so I'm not sure I can fold after some more thought.

[mojed]

I actually said bet 8-11 and fold to a shove, even though I'm not a huge fan of such weak bets.

Villain isn't very aggressive, so he's unlikely to pounce on our weakness with a draw/air, so if he raises, we can safely say we are likely drawing very thin and can fold. If he calls, we can check call a blank river to induce a bluff, check fold if the draw hits. We also might get called by a weaker underpair/middle pair with this small bet, and extract some value from this loose villain.

However, I see now that there are two draws, the straight and the flush. This means there are fewer river cards we welcome and it's harder to know if villain hit, so maybe I would just check fold citing reverse implied odds...

[mojed]

Bump, this deserves more discussion. It's a common spot, we raise out of the blinds preflop hoping to take it down now or with a c-bet on the flop with a semi strong hand, but meet resistance. Any more thoughts?

[mdm13]

Against an opponent like this(I know small sample size yadda yadda ya), half pot and turbomuck to a raise. If he calls I'd check/fold river, this guy prob doesn't bluff missed draws.

[ICMoney]

I would spend the extra $3 to get respect/a true reaction.

Since you had a 10 buy-in day I guess you can do no wrong right?

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I would spend the extra $3 to get respect/a true reaction.

Since you had a 10 buy-in day I guess you can do no wrong right?

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

A 14 buy-in day /images/graemlins/wink.gif plus a little more.


I don't wanna give away results on this though. Maybe tomorrow a conversation can get going especially since the votes look a little split. So I'll try to post ym thoughts on it tomorrow.

[whyzze]

I usually b/f about 12-14 here. If he has balls enough to shove a draw here he can have the pot.

[bazooka87]

Weak bet/fold to push.
With a .9 aggression factor it's unlikely he's going to get out of line with a draw or a bluff here. We also save the extra money as opposed to bet/folding for $14-$17

[wodka]

I voted c/f ... villain is passive so i dont think he would bet with a flushdraw. Dont want to make a huge pot with a pair of tens OOP on that board. If he checks behind on the turn i c/c a reasonable river bet.

P.S.: I would not always c-bet this flop though.

[Nemesis69]

I lead here for half pot. And I'm folding to a raise.

[toddxlogan]

Bet 14ish/fold to raise. Don't think its really too close either.

Check gives villain waaaay too many options and allows him to play his hand perfectly. Don't think villain is going to be raising a 2/3pot with worse here, particularly one who has 12 of his last 23 hands but only raised 2 of them. Thus, bet/call kinda sucks.

[rakes.a.beach]

very clear bet/fold imo.

[bozzer]

i voted for the big bet/fold. i don't think we should get too hung up on the villains lack of aggression so far - sample is small, and he is also playing a lot of hands.

this is a great post cos it's an ultra-common tricky spot. you might have some s/d value but there are draws and you're really not sure whether to pump more money in or show weakness. i think

1) limp-call means there aren't *that* many queens in his range
2) limp-call means that a lot of the draws are plausible
3) line is more consistent with a draw or a weak made hand than a set or a good queen
4) another Q just arrived which makes it less likely he has one, and improves the chances of him calling with worse.
5) our range is strong. i think it's important to preserve this by betting the turn strongly and making sure we're not giving draws good odds. if he wants to shove a worse hand over that then good for him.

[Lego05]

So a lot of people are picking bet 14-17/fold now.

The Qh was a great card for me. There are much fewer combinations that he can have that include a Q now. There are also tons of draws he could have not to mention an 8.


What I actually did was bet $14.50. I likely have the best hand and I'm charging draws.


If he calls I'm shoving river. Now if he shoves I'm getting a little over 3 to 1 so I need to be good 25% of the time....I'm calling there.


His stats are over 23 hands....so I'm largely not paying too much attention to his AF # which isn't very reliable at this point. Not too mention that he's played 55% of hands, which means that his AF is likely going to immediately be much lower anyway. I think he pushes with a draw or an 8 or like 99 often enough that I should call.


Thoughts?


Hands like A8, K8, etc. I included about half of the remaining combinations:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,596 games 0.005 secs 519,200 games/sec

Board: 8c 6s Qs Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.860% 33.01% 00.85% 857 22.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 66.140% 65.29% 00.85% 1695 22.00 { JJ, TdTh, 99, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 6c6d, 6c6h, 6d6h, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, KcQc, KdQd, Kh8h, Ks8s, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QdTd, 9s8s, AcQd, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, Ac8s, Ad8s, Ah8s, As8h, KcQd, KdQc, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQd, Kc8s, Kd8s, Kh8s, Ks8h, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs }




Without K8 except Ks8s:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,376 games 0.005 secs 475,200 games/sec

Board: 8c 6s Qs Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.788% 27.86% 00.93% 662 22.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 71.212% 70.29% 00.93% 1670 22.00 { JJ, TdTh, 99, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 6c6d, 6c6h, 6d6h, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, KcQc, KdQd, Ks8s, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QdTd, 9s8s, AcQd, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, Ac8s, Ad8s, Ah8s, As8h, KcQd, KdQc, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQd, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs }

[Micro Donk]

i voted for bet 14/17 call a shove. mainly because makin a bet that big will pot commit us against him

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
very clear bet/fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]


Don't think there's room for that given odds.