NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat

[kindergartencop]

co is a total monkey hes like 50/6. button is a solid tag. other than that nothing crazy has happened since ive been at table.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

UTG: $44.50
CO: $50.20
BTN: $225.15
Hero (SB): $55.70
BB: $50

Pre-Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds, CO calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.50) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $48.20 and is All-In</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $91.40</font>, Hero ?

[QuietEarner]

insta call

[EMc]

Hmmm this is not as clear cut as a normal set on this flop given the action and the stats.

I think I can let this go, ill probably call 666 or 777

[QuietEarner]

He says button is solid tag, so I think any suited connectors would be in his stealing range, plus many over pairs 88-AA. He says CO is a monkey so he would be discounted some, unless his agg factor is really low.

Yes, you may have been unlucky and flopped an underset, but I think the buttons range, and discounting a monkey you call.

that would be my thought process anyway.

I think agg factor of CO is very important here.

[LOwrestling2001]

while BTN is a solid TAG, would he not play an overpair like this? esp knowing CO is a donkey. We lose to 66, 77, but we beat 67s, and JJ+ (assuming TAG wouldn't play like this with &lt; TT).

[Kasane]

I think this is a call. I wish we knew what kind of tag button is, getting a better feel for his pf range %.

TAG knows what you know about the fishy one. Since I can see him calling with JJ+ as well as some other stuff (76s, for example), this far outweighs the times he, or fish, has you oversetted.

[Khumalo]

I played a little with ranges using Holdem Ranger, they may be way off, but I attempted to devise BTN's partially on the basis of CO's image. Note that BTN's range is weighted mostly towards overpairs+, with the occasional pair+draw. CO's range might be deemed a little too tight, but I just went with something semi-sane, given his flop action.

Note: 85+ means (85, 86, ... 8A) and the numbers in brackets after, say, JJ(20) means I'm asking the calculator to assign that card combo a 20% total probability of showing up given how the hand was played.

Board: 4d 6h 7s

Hero: 4s4c
CO: {5Ts+, 85+, 55-TT, 67, 56, 57, 53, JJ(20), QQ(20), KK(10), AA(10)}
BTN: {QQ+, JJ(75), TT(40), 99(25), 88, 77, 66, 67, 56(20), 57(20), 53, 58}

Equities: Hero = 43%; CO = 27%; BTN = 30%

So, um, call.


P.S. I have an unfortunate tendency to sometimes miss some obvious element when first making a calc-post, so let me know if you spot anything, and I'll amend.

[Profish2285]

Dont fold a set, just dont do it. You will see overpairs and two pair here often enough I think for this call to be profitable.

[Schiester]

I think bottom set is seldom good here. I'm more than happy to call villan's raise but not that of buttons reraise. I can see villan doing this with an overpair/2pair often enough to make this an instacall in a 2 way pot. However, the TAG has shoved which tells me he's ahead of an overpair and he doesn't want you drawing to a straight. I think button is more often than not on an overset... two pair / combo draw is possible but I don't think that likely.

I'm folding this myself.

[Shattered]

I think you see 66 and 77 a lot from the button, but I think you see AA, KK, 67s, and worse even more. Against that range and assuming UTG's a nutjob (even if we're generous and say his range is sets, straights, and 2 pair two thirds of the time and random other 1 pair hand the other third) folding is an enormous mistake.

[Ranma4703]

I call this so fast. Folding this is a huge error. I believe that a lot of 2+2'ers are way too nitty - maybe it is because they want to seem 'good' enough to make a tough laydown, maybe it is because 90% of the hands posted here are ones that the hero lost, but JESUS CHRIST YOU HAVE A SET ALL IN. Maybe we need another photo contest?

I just noticed, I thought you were double stacked. You have less than 100bbs, go broke with a set every time and you will on average win a lot more than when you try to figure out when you are beat and fold it. Unless you have a stellar read, just don't fold it. Most of the time they are drawing dead, and whenever you are behind you usually have 7 flop + 10 turn outs to win, and the times you only have 1 out happen, I believe the odds are something like 1 in 100? So just get it in, PLEASE.

[Shattered]

Oh, right, you're not deep. Fistpump call please.

[Hail Eris]

Meh, if BTN is good, I might think about folding this, because your lead there looks very strong. I mean if am BTN and I see a donk limp/call and a TAG flat OOP and then lead this flop, and the donk shoves, I'm folding AA.

But I'd only think about folding, and then call.

[pokernoobs]

i think u will facing a higher set or straight at here.
i will push it i am top set or middle ,but i will folded the low set at here :&gt;

[Woody317]

I think you're beaten a fair bit but there's no way i'm folding this getting 2:1. i think you see 2-pair, sets and QQ+ from button here enough to make it very +EV. I'm not really worried about the monkey. He coud easily do this with 2 pair or overpairs.

[Profish2285]

Theres no way anyone here is folding a set. I dont care what anyone says, in a vacuum no one is folding, its that simple. The reason for this is because when it comes down to it, if you fold, and see when he shows you an overpair you wont be able to sleep for a couple of nights. Just call, set over set happens so rarely anyway that its not like this is going to become some huge leak. You are definitely good here often enough IMO to make this call profitable. If this board was all one suit it would be a different story, but its not.

[willyc]

This is a pretty good example of when it's OK to fold a set for 100BB.

[Khumalo]

Hmmm, I guess the ranges I posted, especially for BTN, were unconvincing.

It is true that I perhaps overlooked that hero's lead on the flop, assuming his image is solid, looks strong enough to (dramatically?) narrow BTN's range.

I'm still never folding /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kindergartencop]

well i called, had third best lol. button had 77 mouthbreather had the ol 35o. thanks for thoughts. i thought about it for a bit and im still on the fence whether i like it or not.