AK on the river - Pushed AI by loosey villain

[n4rf]

Relatively new to table, only played about 15 hands.

Things I noticed about villain:
-Loves to limp/call with awful hands, especially if they're suited.
-Stacked someone off when he limped/called a raise. Stacked someone with 5/2s vs A/Q on a Q22 board.



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-FullTilt.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($51.85)
MP ($24.65)
CO ($25.05)
Button ($37.80)
Hero ($26.10)
BB ($23.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.35) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, Button calls $2.

Turn: ($6.35) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, Button calls $3.

River: ($12.35) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $31.8 (All-In)</font>, Hero?

Ideas? I know I had him beat on the flop unless he decided to slowplay a set, and I can't imagine runner runner 6's beating me here. However, I don't think it's a bluff here, since there's no reason for him to bluff since I've shown strength throughout this hand.

[Genesis]

I fold the river, you've represented a K the whole way. Why the small turn bet?

[n4rf]

Yeah I just realized that now. I guess I was playing a little "scared" against this opponent. It was a bad play because if he was drawing to a flush maybe a bigger bet could have gotten him off his hand. However, I believe that this opponent would not have thrown away his flush draw unless it was an overbet... he is a pretty big calling station.

[Lego05]

Turn bet should be bigger.


I would call the river. It's hard to put him on a hand here. I find it hard to believe you're not good 23% of the time here.

[TTStrangler]

Villain seems passive from your desc. You've shown strength the entire hand and Villain pushes anyway. I'd say he has you beat. You are getting better than 2.5-1 though for your $ but I don't think you are good often enough here against this guy with the line you took.

I'm not totally sure about this. Are these odds enough?

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain seems passive from your desc. You've shown strength the entire hand and Villain pushes anyway. I'd say he has you beat. You are getting better than 2.5-1 though for your $ but I don't think you are good often enough here against this guy with the line you took.

I'm not totally sure about this. Are these odds enough?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's gettin ~3.3 to 1. Not all of villian's river shove plays since he has like $11 more than hero.

[TTStrangler]

Ya, I guess that turn bet was a little weak. Bigger turn and equal % of pot bet on river and the decision to call gets pretty easy.

[TTStrangler]

ok my math was wayyyy off here, and may still be. Anyway, after calc again I get Hero needs to call 12 to win 52.35. Is this right? In that case wouldn't his odds be ~4.3-1.

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
ok my math was wayyyy off here, and may still be. Anyway, after calc again I get Hero needs to call 12 to win 52.35. Is this right? In that case wouldn't his odds be ~4.3-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

hes not going to get his whole stack when he calls, you have to figure what the actual pot will be when he calls. after the 8, theyll both put in ~12 more if he calls...

[TTStrangler]

Sorry to beat a dead horse here, just trying to understand the math. Just correct my math where I am going wrong. Here's what I was calc to get 52.35

$12.35 + 8 Hero's bet + 8 Villains call + 12 Villains raise + 12 Hero's call = 52.35

[Micro Donk]

remove hero's call because hero has not called yet, and that leaves 12 more into a 40.35 pot, which is 3.36-1 odds

[Genesis]

Don't add in Hero's call to the total.

So
Pot = $12.35 + 8 Hero's bet + 8 Villains call + 12 Villains raise
Hero must call 12

Pot:Call = 40:12 = 3.3:1

[TTStrangler]

&lt;-- sorry total idiot, thanks guys

[Profish2285]

I think I have to call here. What hand is he representing that beats you? I cant think of many hands that have a six in it that can get to the turn, let alone the river.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I have to call here. What hand is he representing that beats you? I cant think of many hands that have a six in it that can get to the turn, let alone the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

but you're not a player who plays bad hands and calls with any draw no matter how bad.

I'm not saying its a fold, but this kind of villain has a LOT of hands that could beat hero.

HANDS THAT IDIOTS (and non idiots) WILL HAVE HERE THAT WINS-
35 (OESD- not terribly idiotic if he gets paid)
22, 44, 66, KK, K6, 46, 26, AA

I see hands like the above shown down every day by people with stats like 55/2/1 every night. Any and all of the hands above could be held by a donk.

That being said, there are many hands that villain could have that hero beats if villain thinks hero will fold.

[TTStrangler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I have to call here. What hand is he representing that beats you? I cant think of many hands that have a six in it that can get to the turn, let alone the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

but you're not a player who plays bad hands and calls with any draw no matter how bad.

I'm not saying its a fold, but this kind of villain has a LOT of hands that could beat hero.

HANDS THAT IDIOTS (and non idiots) WILL HAVE HERE THAT WINS-
35 (OESD- not terribly idiotic if he gets paid)
22, 44, 66, KK, K6, 46, 26, AA

I see hands like the above shown down every day by people with stats like 55/2/1 every night. Any and all of the hands above could be held by a donk.

That being said, there are many hands that villain could have that hero beats if villain thinks hero will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was kind of my thinking, based on OP reads this guys looks pretty bad. That's why I wanted to crunch the numbers to see if we had odds to call.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
That was kind of my thinking, based on OP reads this guys looks pretty bad. That's why I wanted to crunch the numbers to see if we had odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, its difficult with only 15 hands to say much... I've seen players who will do this because your turn bet looks weak and he believes he can take it away. I have seen players overbet bluff anytime a scare card hits.

On the other hand, a lot of the loose passive passive players overbet/push when they hit monsters. They know that people err on the side of calling them down because they're so terrible. With those players, they have it here when they push and they think you can't fold.

You know he's loose and calls down with bad hands. The bigger question is have you seen him overbet with bluffs?

I think most of these players lose money. BUT, the ones that do okay do so because they get paid off when they hit because there image is so bad.

If the person is overbetting all the time and not going to showdown, I'm be more willing to call here. With only 15 hands.... honestly, I sometimes call for information and cross my fingers. Sometimes I fold and wait for a better read and a better spot. If he's bluffing this a lot, then he'll do it when you have a monster too.

[jakrpanda]

Grunch:

Fold. You said yourself he very well could be playing a huge range from the button and calling your PF raise with any two. You've put a little into the pot up until the river, you can still walk away. You have TPTK, which is a great hand.. for _small_ pots, not huge calls on the river.

Most of the time I would fold and look for a better spot. The good news is you know he'll be giving action. We don't need to call _every_ river we think may be a bluff or weak. Only ones that are clearly profitable. This seems to be more of a marginal hand so I'd fold.