NL 50: loose villain shoves river and i gots QQ

[Pokerdemic]

Villain here is 60/20/2 over 50. I don't have any good reads on him though.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

SB: $45.70
BB: $67.90
UTG: $59.50
CO: $67
Hero (BTN): $68.20

Pre-Flop: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, SB folds, BB calls $6.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($17.25) T/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls $12

Turn: ($41.25) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($41.25) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $48.90 and is All-In</font>, Hero ?

[joseki]

I think you should fold. How much of his range is exactly JJ?

[Pokerdemic]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should fold. How much of his range is exactly JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a 60 vpip. I am not sure his range is only PPs here.

[Profish2285]

I think I would call here rather quickly because you checked behind the turn. I would definitely fire that turn and if I didnt it would be to induce a river bluff.

[joseki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should fold. How much of his range is exactly JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a 60 vpip. I am not sure his range is only PPs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may have vpip of 60, but calling a 3bet from the bb and then a flop bet, prolly means something, no?

I don't know, maybe he's fos w/ AK or something, but how often? I'd expect him to show up w/ AA or TT much of the time.

[Profish2285]

Youre missing the point that he checked turn here. Soooo many villains will bet/shove with anything on the river once the turn is checked through. That is why checking the turn is a good line to induce a bluff, but if youre afraid to call his shove here then never check the turn.

[Pokerdemic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should fold. How much of his range is exactly JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a 60 vpip. I am not sure his range is only PPs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may have vpip of 60, but calling a 3bet from the bb and then a flop bet, prolly means something, no?

I don't know, maybe he's fos w/ AK or something, but how often? I'd expect him to show up w/ AA or TT much of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

His numbers were aggressive enough that I was discounting AA/KK from his range. So he is either FOS and has any two broadway (AK, AQ, AJ, he is FOS and has a pair that I beat JJ, 99)or he made a set and was going for a check-raise on the turn. He called the flop cbet, which does mean something.


I agree that it would be a really, really, questionable call. But there are times when a 60 VPIP turns up with air, and at the time I was thinking that my turn check, which was questionable, induced a bluff.

[Profish2285]

ITS NOT A QUESTIONABLE CALL, YOU CHECKED THE TURN, YOU INDUCED A BLUFF NOW CALL. Sorry, but holy [censored] does no one pay attention to the action of the hand.

[Pokerdemic]

[ QUOTE ]
Youre missing the point that he checked turn here. Soooo many villains will bet/shove with anything on the river once the turn is checked through. That is why checking the turn is a good line to induce a bluff, but if youre afraid to call his shove here then never check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what they have been saying in the cardrunners videos I have been watching. If you have an overpair and check the turn, you have to call the river because you have induced a bluff. That is what was going through my head and made me want to call, but I am still in marginal shape against his range.

[TheRenaissance]

Yeah, call against this guy.

[Profish2285]

Youre not in marginal shape if you check the turn. If you bet the turn and this happened then its a different story. The way you played it you MUST call, no other thought is needed.

[traz]

i call pretty quickly

[joseki]

[ QUOTE ]
Youre missing the point that he checked turn here. Soooo many villains will bet/shove with anything on the river once the turn is checked through. That is why checking the turn is a good line to induce a bluff, but if youre afraid to call his shove here then never check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So maybe he's calling light preflop, but did he really call the flop to catch a pair or set up this river bluff? Or, maybe he was hoping to get to showdown w/ JTs?

I don't know, I see what you're saying, but I think he's value pushing 75% of the time, so I'm out.

[Profish2285]

Forget it, I made my point, follow it if you want, this is actually starting to annoy me.

[Milky]

All you guys saying this is questionable... Um, no. This should be a fairly easy call, mainly because you checked turn and because of his stats. He could be betting AT/QT/JT/99/77/AK/AQ/KQ/QJ etc here since hero checked turn. You can't check turn and then fold to this river bet.

[Pokerdemic]

Given my read of the situation, I decided to call. Would a 2/3 pot turn bet have been better?

[Milky]

I typically bet turn here, yes. Not only do you get more value out of a T/smaller PP, but it gives your 2 barrel bluffs more respect.

[joseki]

[ QUOTE ]
Forget it, I made my point, follow it if you want, this is actually starting to annoy me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus, relax, I'm didn't mean to annoy anyone. I understand your point: we need to call bets that we think are bluffs, checking the turn sometimes induces bluffs, so there's good reason to consider the possibility of a bluff, got it.

The point I was trying to make is that what happened on the turn isn't the only relevant action in this hand. He called a couple good sized bets, and prolly had every expectation that we'd keep betting. If he had a marginal pair or some such he would have likely checked the river hoping we'd check back, right?

So, he either called pf and flop w/ some sort of draw (AK?), or he called hoping to set up this bluff, or he was slowplaying something like AA or TT, which do you think is the case? Or, more practically, what are the relative frequencies of each?

[Pokerdemic]

[ QUOTE ]
I typically bet turn here, yes. Not only do you get more value out of a T/smaller PP, but it gives your 2 barrel bluffs more respect.

[/ QUOTE ]

So here is a situation where I don't know what to make of the PNL book. If I bet the turn I am committed, but his raising range usually has me beat. If I bet turn do I fold to a c/r even though most of my stack has gone in?

[Milky]

No, I'd still get it in on the turn. He might think you have overs or think his ten is still good and doesn't want overs to come. I still think you'd be in good shape. If he had a set or KK+ here then oh well... but in the long run I think you're good here enough to get your stack in.