QQ... a Series of Tough Decisions? (50 NL)

[members_only]

Villain is 6/4 over 50 hands (all from a previous session, he's just sat down here.)

At the time I thought the river bet was sexy but I'm not sure what I was trying to do in retrospect.

Anyway, comments on all streets welcome (I think they're all interesting.)

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

UTG: $50.70
MP: $49.50
CO: $23.20
BTN: $50.70
Hero (SB): $51.30
BB: $21.20

Pre-Flop: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, BB folds, MP calls $5

Flop: ($14.50) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: ($14.50) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9.50</font>, MP calls $9.50

River: ($33.50) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $16.50</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $33 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $16.50

[Sniiii]

Bet flop please. Find out where you're at, it'll make things so much easier. Given the flop play though, I think I'd play it pretty much like you did.

[Ramana]

bet flop, bet turn, c/c river
flop chk is very bad imo, turn (edit: i meant river) bet makes no sense as played.

[checktheriver]

I know 50 hands is a small sample size, but that still means that he's probably tight preflop and wouldn't call your 3-bet wider than 77+,AQ+. Since any pocket pair beats you and he's unlikely to call your turn bet with Ace high, I think you have to check/fold the river, as unpleasant as it looks.

[members_only]

Is it inconceivable that he calls turn with AK?

[checktheriver]

Yeah sorry he might call on the turn with AK but the thing is I don't see him turning his hand into a bluff on the river enough for calling to be profitable. He has 88+ way more imo. And I also don't understand why you didn't bet the flop.

[members_only]

Mmm well because I thought his range for calling my 3-bet was probably very tight, so didn't think there was much value in a flop bet (say we bet the flop... what do you want him to do?)

[LiveNow]

what on earth. butchered. Bet flop, and as played i think i like check calling river, because you're not deep enough to b/f imo.

[bozzer]

why would you bet the flop here?

please fill in the following:

[ ] value
[ ] charge draws (a subset of value)
[ ] bluff

[Sh@i'tan]

[x]value
[x]protection

id bet flop and go from there. as played you gotta fold the river, don't talk yourself into calling b/c u made a weak river bet i highly doubt hes bluffing.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
[x]value
[x]protection


[/ QUOTE ]

calling ranges pls.

[Sh@i'tan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[x]value
[x]protection


[/ QUOTE ]

calling ranges pls.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you 3bet pf if you are going to attempt to pot control this hand?

22
33
44
55
66
88
99
JJ

all hands we beat i expect to call a flop bet not to mention any other random crap he has and might show up with.

checking then putting all the money is terrible. especially, if hes putting the money in.

[Sniiii]

I can't help myself but to consider the possibility of an AKs here, hoping to hit a flush.

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]

22
33
44
55
66
88
99
JJ

all hands we beat i expect to call a flop bet not to mention any other random crap he has and might show up with.


[/ QUOTE ]

WTF

Did you read all the OP? Guy is playing 6/4

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]


why would you 3bet pf if you are going to attempt to pot control this hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

[x] value
[x] protection

is this flop above average for us vs his calling range?

[Sh@i'tan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

22
33
44
55
66
88
99
JJ

all hands we beat i expect to call a flop bet not to mention any other random crap he has and might show up with.


[/ QUOTE ]

WTF

Did you read all the OP? Guy is playing 6/4

[/ QUOTE ]

y don't you answer my question.

and YES i read all of your OP. it was from a previous session and frankly im assuming hes one of the run of the mill nitty donks i run into and when they raise a pair they aren't folding it to a 3bet pf. i wouldnt be suprised if after 500 hands hes playing with a &gt; 10 VPIP and &gt; 10 PFR.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

22
33
44
55
66
88
99
JJ

all hands we beat i expect to call a flop bet not to mention any other random crap he has and might show up with.


[/ QUOTE ]

WTF

Did you read all the OP? Guy is playing 6/4

[/ QUOTE ]

y don't you answer my question.

and YES i read all of your OP. it was from a previous session and frankly im assuming hes one of the run of the mill nitty donks i run into and when they raise a pair they aren't folding it to a 3bet pf. i wouldnt be suprised if after 500 hands hes playing with a &gt; 10 VPIP and &gt; 10 PFR.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe they don't fold preflop, but they surely don't call a cbet when they miss their set. JJ,99 and occassionally AK is the widest calling range we can put him on IMO.

[Sniiii]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe they don't fold preflop, but they surely don't call a cbet when they miss their set. JJ,99 and occassionally AK is the widest calling range we can put him on IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's the case, then we bet the flop for:
[x]value
[x]protection

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
maybe they don't fold preflop, but they surely don't call a cbet when they miss their set. JJ,99 and occassionally AK is the widest calling range we can put him on IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's the case, then we bet the flop for:
[x]value
[x]protection

[/ QUOTE ]

so 99,JJ and occasionally AK are &gt; 50% of his calling range are they?

this is a really great spot for a flop check.

fwiw, i check flop, think a LOT about betting or checking turn, probably bet and check fold river.

[members_only]

Sure, it's very unlikely that his true stats are 6/4. But he probably is still pretty tight. And I don't know which nitty donks you're playing with, but I doubt he'll call a 3-bet with any pair he raises, never mind peeling the flop with 22 etc.

Your question is a good one. If I didn't think there was value in betting a flop like this, maybe I should just have called pre? There could be an argument for that. It was something I wanted to generate discussion about because I don't really know. I don't think I played this hand very well, which is why I posted it. Thanks for contributing, I hope I didn't offend you.

[Ikaika]

If you aren't willing to stick your money in on a flop like that, don't 3bet him preflop.

[Sniiii]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
maybe they don't fold preflop, but they surely don't call a cbet when they miss their set. JJ,99 and occassionally AK is the widest calling range we can put him on IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's the case, then we bet the flop for:
[x]value
[x]protection

[/ QUOTE ]

so 99,JJ and occasionally AK are &gt; 50% of his calling range are they?

this is a really great spot for a flop check.

fwiw, i check flop, think a LOT about betting or checking turn, probably bet and check fold river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Instead of bringing up tons of false points as to why I'd bet the flop, I'll just take back what I said and agree: your line is way better. Thanks.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't willing to stick your money in on a flop like that, don't 3bet him preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not sure i understand this. we are ahead of his range preflop, and probably ahead of a 3bet calling range. we're probably not ahead of a cbet calling range. what's the problem with 3betting then checking this flop? i think there are plenty of better flops out there, but tbh i am really not sure where this flop sits as a % of how good it is - is it in the top 50% of flops for us?

[LiveNow]

checking sucks because we want to A) charge draws B) get value from worse hands (including draws)

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
checking sucks because we want to A) charge draws B) get value from worse hands (including draws)

[/ QUOTE ]

what draws/worse hands??? there are literally so few...

edit: i hope i don't sound rude. i'm just very interested in getting to the bottom of this betting the flop consensus.

[bored]

I check/fold the river. You beat nothing and are trying to represent hands that Villain either already has or already has beat. I don't think he will fold an overpair here.

Also, fold to the river shove/minraise. What hand does he show up with here 20%+ of the time that you beat? The one combo of QQ for the split?

Slowplayed TT or 2 outed JJ... Hmm it's a tossup, I think I'm gonna go with TT.

I probably fire one cbet on this flop and if i get called I shut down. Exploitable? Yes, but not by someone only playing their premium cards, and if it turns out that it is some 20/10 or even 40/30 who just got cold decked for 50 hands I'll be comfortable that I only lost a small/medium pot vs them.

[mojed]

So OP, you check the flop hoping for a low card to hit the turn, so that you can get some value from 99, 88 on later streets?

I think betting the flop is better, because while I understand that his calling range is narrow, there are so many turn cards that annoy us that I just want to take the pot down now. Also, villain likely would have 4 bet with KK and AA, so if we can narrow his calling range even to just QQ, JJ, 77 and TT, there are six JJ, one 77 and QQ and three TT. We have have slightly over 50% equity against that range, plus by checking we've let AK draw for free.

[BukNaked36]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
checking sucks because we want to A) charge draws B) get value from worse hands (including draws)

[/ QUOTE ]

what draws/worse hands??? there are literally so few...

edit: i hope i don't sound rude. i'm just very interested in getting to the bottom of this betting the flop consensus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cards we dont want to see on the turn - A, K, any diamond

You're crazy to let AK have a free shot at the turn especially having reraised preflop.