20NL Royal draw gets donked. Easy push?

[kroeliewoelie]

Ok BB is 43/24/1.7(33). I flop bottom pair + (royal) flush draw + straight draw. See HH.

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

Button ($22.24)
SB ($10.27)
BB ($25.46)
Hero ($19.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.8</font>, Button calls $0.80, SB calls $0.70, BB calls $0.60.

Flop: ($3.20) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ...</font>

So at the moment I doubted what I should do. I tried to stove his range. Let´s say he does this with a made flush, 2 pair hand, straight hand, any set and AA.

Board: Kd Qd Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.048% 43.69% 01.36% 25950 808.50 { AdJs }
Hand 1: 54.952% 53.59% 01.36% 31833 808.50 { JJ+, ATs, KJs+, QJs, T9s, 8d7d, ATo, KJo+, QJo, T9o }

Considering we may have some fold equity, because villain might bluff at this dangerous board or might fold parts of his range like T9, QJ, do you agree that this is an easy push?

(Btw I know I should have reloaded, but I forgot)

[SDone]

I don't hate pushing here. I'm just wondering whether or not it will get you max value oout of a made hand.

[vixticator]

Who overbets pot especially on this board, against three opponents, and folds? That would be shocking. IMO fold.

[RockRattler]

reload pf /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I don't think he will donk over pot with a made flush. But who knows what these guys will do /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Push seems good. You might have some FE but with the money already in the pot I don't think you really need any to make this +EV.

Two pair is his most likely holding IMO.

[SDone]

[ QUOTE ]
Who overbets pot especially on this board, against three opponents, and folds? That would be shocking. IMO fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Didn't notice that.
The fact that someone's willing to bet out on that flop shows some serious strength. But.. man royal flush draws.. so tempting.

[kroeliewoelie]

I forgot villain can also have AK,AQ,AJ. This doesn't change our equity by much however: 42.7%

[MortenTA]

-

[RockRattler]

Let's say we have 40% equity in the hand.

Let's see how often we need to get a fold from villain to make this a good push.

Our share of the final pot if called will be $. 39,8$ * 40% = 15,92$.

We need to put 18,3$ more.

There is now 3,2$ + 4$ = 7,2$ in the pot.

Number P is 18,3$ - 15,92$ = 2,38$

Its actually like betting 2,38$ into the pot of 7,2$ with no chance of winning.

To be fair we need him to fold 1/4 to make this breakeven.

And that is with 40% equity which I think might be low.

You be the judge if fold or push is right.

Explanation of the calculation used can be found here : http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&amp;PHPSESSID= (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=ssplnlpoker&amp;Number=874687 3&amp;fpart=&amp;PHPSESSID=)

[kroeliewoelie]

If we agree on his range, the EV of pushing is

EV(push+call) = EV(win) + EV(lose) =
(7.2+18.3)*0.43 - 18.3 * .57 =
15.07 - 10.43 = 4.64

EV(push+fold) = 7.2

So we need to push and want him to fold, I guess.

The equity we need to break even on a push is found by solving
(7.2+18.3)x-18.3(1-x)=0 ==&gt; x=41.7%

So if his range is only sets, made straights and made flushes:

Board: Kd Qd Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.193% 34.78% 02.42% 7230 502.50 { AdJs }
Hand 1: 62.807% 60.39% 02.42% 12555 502.50 { KK-JJ, ATs, Td9d, 8d7d, ATo }

In this case we need to fold.

So it comes down to what his range is.

[ama0330]

id just call because you're multiway then if someone shoves behind you you'd be getting pretty irresistable odds to call

[kroeliewoelie]

I think it's quite rare that SB will be slowplaying here, since I got Ad, the SB checked and BB shows he has cards that connects with this board. There aren't that many cards remaining that will make monsters here. I don't think calling will induce shoves here.

[Muflon]

I usualy just call here. And usualy lose money when the turn and river bring two blanks. Can't really decide if pushing is better.

FWIW I had similar flops happen to me and I don't think I ever saw villain have a flush there. Str8 or set overbetting to "find out where they are" and then calling a shove because they think they are getting bluffed.

[kroeliewoelie]

And if you call, what if the turn blanks and you are facing a potbet?

[monkeymaps]

id just call here this is prob 2 pair or str8 overprotecting their hand. you might get some calls behind you making the call ok IMO.

[corsakh]

wtf

[monkeymaps]

I think pushing is fine too but being multiway there is a good chance someone somone might push behind you giving you greats odds to call anyways I cant see folding here.