underepped AK

[RockRattler]

villain was 24/9/0.9

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

BB: $13.89
UTG: $25.02
MP: $28.86
CO: $63.46
Hero (BTN): $62.87
SB: $16.59

Pre-Flop: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.75</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $4.75

Flop: ($14.25) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($14.25) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7

River: ($28.25) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $14</font>, Hero folds

these are the thoughts I went through when playing the hand.

villain seemed to have a tight raising range.
I have no first hand experience with his 3bet calling range
but I assume it's tighter than the 9% he is open raising.

On the flop I did't really think a c-bet would accomplish much.
Sure he could have lower PP's 77+ but IMO it's a rather small part of his range.
JJ+ and AJ isn't going anywhere and im way ahead of AQ.

On the turn the A hits and he bets out. A guy with 0.8 AF doesn't bet QQ and KK on this turn.

His bet is on the small side and a raise would definitely get value from AQ.
I deciced to keep the pot more controllable by just calling.
I called with the intend to v-bet river

The river however is giving AQ two pair. Now were really only ahead of AT. A holding which I don't think is part of his 3bet calling range.

[Phildo]

This seems horribly weak tight to me. C-bet flop. As played raise turn, call river.

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems horribly weak tight to me. C-bet flop. As played raise turn, call river.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with c-bet flop, a ton of his calling range missed this board and i dont expect him to call with a hand like 99...

but think about what his range is and what he could be betting there, raising turn seems horrible. as played id call river in the heat of the moment but i could see a fold as were only beating a bluff..

[Phildo]

[ QUOTE ]

On the turn the A hits and he bets out. A guy with 0.8 AF doesn't bet QQ and KK on this turn.


[/ QUOTE ]
If it was a donk bet then I'd agree, but you checked the flop through after reraising pre.

[Phildo]

[ QUOTE ]
but think about what his range is and what he could be betting there, raising turn seems horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]
OP has put villain on AT+, 77, 55, JJ. Even given this range you are 50/50 on the turn according to Pokerstove. But I think after OP checked the flop through in a 3 bet pot villain's range can be much wider.

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but think about what his range is and what he could be betting there, raising turn seems horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]
OP has put villain on AT+, 77, 55, JJ. Even given this range you are 50/50 on the turn according to Pokerstove. But I think after OP checked the flop through in a 3 bet pot villain's range can be much wider.

[/ QUOTE ]

raising the turn folds out worse hands and you never get better hands to fold

his range cant be that wide in the first place, since hes a 24/9 and raised pre then called a 3bet.

then he bets at this, his range isnt much wider then what you described

[Phildo]

He's a 24/9 but he was in the cutoff. I think his open raising range from the cutoff could be a bit wider than a normal 9% of hands (and I'm discounting AA and KK cause I'm assuming he wouldn't call preflop with those, but I suppose I could be wrong). And after you check the flop through even a passive opponent could take a shot at a pot that big.

[RockRattler]

[ QUOTE ]
OP has put villain on AT+, 77, 55, JJ. Even given this range you are 50/50 on the turn according to Pokerstove.

[/ QUOTE ]

This assigned range is IMO heavily weighted towards hands we loose to. This is something pokerstove doesn't take into account.

[ QUOTE ]

raising the turn folds out worse hands and you never get better hands to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see how this logic could apply here. If we use it to substantiate our turn call I don't think we can fold to river bet.

I don't think that a call is bad at all, but I think it's close.

[RedSoxFan]

I'd cbet flop- you would if you had QQ+. As played- agree that you don't beat much on river. I'd probably call though.

[members_only]

OP, I think your reasoning on the hand is very good. Only thing is idk how big your sample size is when you're making these reads based on his stats.

Fine not to c-bet the flop.

Phildo, after OP checks behind the turn, the most likely hands for him to have are AK and AQ. So from villain's point of view, the A is not a good card to bluff (or value bet thin?) at.

[RockRattler]

[ QUOTE ]
Only thing is idk how big your sample size is when you're making these reads based on his stats.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a very valid point and in this case it was only a few hundred hands.

I am definitely guilty of making reads of too few hands sometime.

[slush420]

I don't think folding the river is weak at all. I think that river queen is the worst card imagineable since the reason I would call turn is the possibility of villain having qq or aq. just about every other card on the river falls except the queen I snap-call. but I think that river makes it an easy fold.