grrr...am I getting pushed around by this villain..?

[worpler]

villain is 38/11/3.7
he's very agg and always seems to get the better of me....me thinks I am a bit limp against him...../images/graemlins/mad.gif
what do think of this hand?


Cryptologic Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.06 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

UTG ($14.34)
MP ($4.22)
CO ($2)
Button ($8.62)
SB ($4.41)
Hero ($8.41)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.06.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.06, CO (poster) checks, Button calls $0.06, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.30) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.24</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls $0.24, Hero calls $0.12.

Turn: ($1.02) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $1.06</font>, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $2.08

[hendal]

Whoopie, combo draw on flop. Raise it up big!!!

[baker2g]

with those reads i think u should be raising the flop here..

[worpler]

thx, he has deffo got me on the defensive it seems.

[kenadams]

Raise flop.
As played, raise turn. You got top pair, a flush draw and an OESD.

[poincaraux]

I think I raise all over the place here, but I reaaaaly don't fold.

I mean, just think about he high end of his range. How much equity do you think you have against a set on the flop? On the turn?

Now think about how he's v. loose and v. aggressive, and the fact that you look super weak/passive here.

[worpler]

grr...am liking this less and less the more I think about.

[Milky]

Waay too passive. Bet more on the flop (around .20) and 3bet his minraise. If you just call (as you did here) then you should definitely push turn (or crai since he's aggressive). This was a great spot to get all your chips in there.

[djj6835]

Played fine until you folded the turn. Just call, you have an ace.

[HeyBigMan]

3-bet him on the flop and look to get it in on the turn if you like money

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet him on the flop and look to get it in on the turn if you like money



[/ QUOTE ]

Is this guy bad enough to felt an underpair. If not, raising at any point here is bad. Op said villain was aggro and we have an ace with a good draw, just call down.

[You're No Daisy]

Against a 38/11/3.7 who re-raises you on a flop like this, you are shoving all-in with this type of draw. The reason is that you have fold equity, meaning you don't necessarily want him to call, but if he does you have a lot of outs. Correct me if I'm wrong guys, but I think we have 15 clean outs on the flop and 18 clean outs on the turn (unless villain has a set, then it's 17 outs...the 6/images/graemlins/club.gif won't help us). I didn't count the 2 remaining Aces as outs just incase villain has a better Ace than you.

AC

EDIT: ZOMG...I just saw you folded the turn. Very weak. You should have shoved all-in. You have a flush draw + OESD. Bet flop 3/4 size of pot. If called, shove turn.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a 38/11/3.7 who re-raises you on a flop like this, you are shoving all-in with this type of draw. The reason is that you have fold equity, meaning you don't necessarily want him to call, but if he does you have a lot of outs. Correct me if I'm wrong guys, but I think we have 15 clean outs on the flop and 18 clean outs on the turn (unless villain has a set, then it's 17 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

FE against what and outs against what?

[worpler]

gonna file this under "zomg wtf was I thinking"...lol

[You're No Daisy]

Fold equity against villain holding a pair less than Aces (like 22-77) or connecting cards like 56. Certainly villain could have a set since he limped in. What else could he possible have that's way ahead of us? Maybe he was trying to rep an Ace but I doubt it since he's aggressive and didn't raise PF. I'm assuming a draw here. Even if villain has an Ace and we don't think he'll fold, I still condone shoving because we're 55/45 ahead on the flop. I think it's more likely you'll see something like 56 (suited or unsuited) here...which we are way ahead of. That's what I think we have fold equity over.

You have a helluva lot more posts than I do, so I'll hand this off to you for your opinion.

AC

[Stellastarr]

Definitely raise somewhere... flop, turn. You have a great hand.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold equity against villain holding a pair less than Aces (like 22-77) or connecting cards like 56.

[/ QUOTE ]

But we beat all those hands. We don't want fe against hands we crush. If villain is aggro we can just let him continue to bluff while also drawing at our flush/straight.

[Check_The_Nuts]

I don't like calling down here at all and think its terrible. I also don't like check/raise turn or whatever. Your fold equity has to go up significantly on the turn to make that a better play than getting it in on the flop. You also pot stick him a bit if you take the check/raise turn line.

It's not about keeping hands in you beat. You don't beat enough hands with Top pair second lowest kicker. The flop has to be pushed for equity reasons. Also if you check/call this turn it may be difficult to get paid on a spade river. Especially with the As missing.

With him pushing you around it just makes it double true that you have to push the flop. I think he's folding on the turn/river less often due to that fact.

[Khaos4k]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold equity against villain holding a pair less than Aces (like 22-77) or connecting cards like 56.

[/ QUOTE ]

But we beat all those hands. We don't want fe against hands we crush. If villain is aggro we can just let him continue to bluff while also drawing at our flush/straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every AX (except A2) is "ahead" on this flop. He probably folds A6-AJ. I put ahead in quotes, because if he does hold one of these hands, we are ahead with our many, many draws, and 2 streets to hit them. If however we wait to see the turn before putting the money in, our equity is cut in half.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like calling down here at all and think its terrible. I also don't like check/raise turn or whatever. Your fold equity has to go up significantly on the turn to make that a better play than getting it in on the flop. You also pot stick him a bit if you take the check/raise turn line.

It's not about keeping hands in you beat. You don't beat enough hands with Top pair second lowest kicker. The flop has to be pushed for equity reasons. Also if you check/call this turn it may be difficult to get paid on a spade river. Especially with the As missing.

With him pushing you around it just makes it double true that you have to push the flop. I think he's folding on the turn/river less often due to that fact.


[/ QUOTE ]

The only way raising trying to get it in on this flop is even close to OK is bc we also have a straight draw so we are actually a slight favorite over better aces. Otherwise raising the flop is only going to prevent you from getting more money from underpairs and bluffs. You have zero fe against any hand that beats you and we already have showdown value, why are you wanting to bluff? Take away our straight draw on the flop and just give hero the ace with a flush draw and raising becomes terrible.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Every AX (except A2) is "ahead" on this flop. He probably folds A6-AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do over aggro donks really play Ax, flop an ace and then fold at the first sign of resistance at the micros?

[Check_The_Nuts]

yeah if you didn't have the gutshot or the low kicker then pushing the flop would be pretty bad.

if you had KK that would be bad too.

I also have no idea why you think people are bluffing the turn/river so often 3way that its so profitable to just call here to induce bluffs later. Your inducing valuebets is what your doing.

Not to mention with 3 ppl in the pot on the turn, the Ac missing, its going to be really hard to extract if you hti on the turn, and will be hard if you hit on the river.

Push is definitely better, I really see no reason to just call the flop. Your kicker is horrible.

[Khaos4k]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Every AX (except A2) is "ahead" on this flop. He probably folds A6-AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do over aggro donks really play Ax, flop an ace and then fold at the first sign of resistance at the micros?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about stakes these low. But even if he does call, we have over 50% equity vs a higher ace.

[bknollenberg]

[ QUOTE ]
with those reads i think u should be raising the flop here..

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF GET YOUR OWN AVATAR YOU NIT

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
I also have no idea why you think people are bluffing the turn/river so often 3way that its so profitable to just call here to induce bluffs later. Your inducing valuebets is what your doing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not we induce a bluff or not doesn't really matter when we are still getting called by every set, two pair, and ace while folding all other hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Push is definitely better, I really see no reason to just call the flop. Your kicker is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

All the more reason to not shove imo. We are a dog against villains calling range and have zero fe against hands better than ours.

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like calling down here at all and think its terrible. I also don't like check/raise turn or whatever. Your fold equity has to go up significantly on the turn to make that a better play than getting it in on the flop. You also pot stick him a bit if you take the check/raise turn line.

It's not about keeping hands in you beat. You don't beat enough hands with Top pair second lowest kicker. The flop has to be pushed for equity reasons. Also if you check/call this turn it may be difficult to get paid on a spade river. Especially with the As missing.

With him pushing you around it just makes it double true that you have to push the flop. I think he's folding on the turn/river less often due to that fact.


[/ QUOTE ]

The only way raising trying to get it in on this flop is even close to OK is bc we also have a straight draw so we are actually a slight favorite over better aces. Otherwise raising the flop is only going to prevent you from getting more money from underpairs and bluffs. You have zero fe against any hand that beats you and we already have showdown value, why are you wanting to bluff? Take away our straight draw on the flop and just give hero the ace with a flush draw and raising becomes terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like a previous poster said, it's not about FE, it's about pot equity. If one of our draws gets there we aren't going to make a dime off an underpair or an ace, so best to get it in now. Sure it'll fold the underpair, but we might get a call and look at the equity we have against the range that might call.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

85,140 games 0.005 secs 17,028,000 games/sec

Board: 4c 3c As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

EDIT:
And if he only calls with 2 pair or better hands, we still have &gt; 50% equity (but there's no way his calling range is this tight)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26,730 games 0.005 secs 5,346,000 games/sec

Board: 4c 3c As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.790% 52.38% 01.41% 14002 376.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 46.210% 44.80% 01.41% 11976 376.00 { 44-33, A4s-A3s, 43s, A4o-A3o, 43o }

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I also have no idea why you think people are bluffing the turn/river so often 3way that its so profitable to just call here to induce bluffs later. Your inducing valuebets is what your doing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not we induce a bluff or not doesn't really matter when we are still getting called by every set, two pair, and ace while folding all other hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Push is definitely better, I really see no reason to just call the flop. Your kicker is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

All the more reason to not shove imo. We are a dog against villains calling range and have zero fe against hands better than ours.

[/ QUOTE ]

humm... You can't have (A) and (B) both. If he's calling with any ace, then you are ahead of his calling range. Especially if your push range included sets. If he's folding everything but sets then yeah your behind, but he probably has AK/AQ/AJ here often as well. Making it likely +EV as well. You do realize your like 40% equity versus a set (12 outs twice, 50% minus the times he fills up).

verus any ace you have 15 outs. That's [censored] omaha-good drawing odds.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That range is insane, both as a range given preflop/flop action and as a calling range.

[ICMoney]

Whoooaahhh, easy there bud, don't get too aggressive now...

...uuummm, wait...you just call flop and then check fold turn??

Pump flop, get it in on turn.

You'll look back in a few months and laugh at how weak-tight you are now.

Live and learn.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That range is insane, both as a range given flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that range. I don't think he'll call with AJ though.

[tannenj]

playing the flop this way is fine. but if you suspect he's been outplaying you, reraising him on the flop ensures that you won't get outplayed/make a mistake. as played, call the turn bet.

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That range is insane, both as a range given flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

a 3.75 AF is certainly capable of the flop action with this range. And this isn't his calling range most likely, but it doesn't matter (see my edit).

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }


[/ QUOTE ]That range is insane, both as a range given flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree with that range. I don't think he'll call with AJ though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so confused. Villains limps with AJ+? Villain folds AJ on the flop but raises flop and stacks off with 22?

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
playing the flop this way is fine. but if you suspect he's been outplaying you, reraising him on the flop ensures that you won't get outplayed/make a mistake. as played, call the turn bet.



[/ QUOTE ]

Agree that raising flop serves this purpose but doesn't achieve max value.

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }


[/ QUOTE ]That range is insane, both as a range given flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree with that range. I don't think he'll call with AJ though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so confused. Villains limps with AJ+? Villain folds AJ on the flop but raises flop and stacks off with 22?

[/ QUOTE ]

How about this range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26,730 games 0.005 secs 5,346,000 games/sec

Board: As 3c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.790% 52.38% 01.41% 14002 376.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 46.210% 44.80% 01.41% 11976 376.00 { 44-33, A4s-A3s, 43s, A4o-A3o, 43o }

So again, why are we not trying to get all-in on the flop?

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.790% 52.38% 01.41% 14002 376.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 46.210% 44.80% 01.41% 11976 376.00 { 44-33, A4s-A3s, 43s, A4o-A3o, 43o }


[/ QUOTE ]

OK I stand corrected then. I was expecting to be about 50/50 against a wider calling range. All the talk about fold equity is still nonsense and shouldn't even be mentioned and like I said earlier the only reason felting this hand might be OK is bc of the straight draw. Take those three outs away and I think shoving the flop is pretty bad.

[ICMoney]

Willing to felt on this flop or a 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif is so standard. I'm felting 100% of the time on this flop.

Maybe folding equity doesn't exist at 6nl, but at 25nl, 50nl or whatever people will fold sometimes. Anyways, you are in good shape against any range.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.790% 52.38% 01.41% 14002 376.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 46.210% 44.80% 01.41% 11976 376.00 { 44-33, A4s-A3s, 43s, A4o-A3o, 43o }


[/ QUOTE ]

OK I stand corrected then. I was expecting to be about 50/50 against a wider calling range. All the talk about fold equity is still nonsense and shouldn't even be mentioned and like I said earlier the [b]only reason felting this hand might be OK is bc of the straight draw. Take those three outs away and I think shoving the flop is pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ICMoney]

If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.

[Schiester]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet him on the flop and look to get it in on the turn if you like money

[/ QUOTE ]

Like it!

3bet him big!

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.



[/ QUOTE ] You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK now this is definitely bad unless you think villain is actually folding a ton of aces here and I seriously doubt that is the case for this villain at these stakes. Even with the oesd your equity takes a nosedive here.

[ICMoney]

I agree about felting on flop/turn. I was wondering the best way to do it.

In this hand we are OOP.

Say we 3b and get called and still want to get it in on the turn.

When he only min raises, I'm not really sure if he make a strong bet on the turn.

I'd prob lead again.

Assuming 100bb stacks usually, do you just bomb the turn, CRAI or what?

------------------------------------------

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Sh@i'tan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.



[/ QUOTE ] You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK now this is definitely bad unless you think villain is actually folding a ton of aces here and I seriously doubt that is the case for this villain at these stakes. Even with the oesd your equity takes a nosedive here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. getting all in on the turn after just calling the flop is horrible. im never folding the turn though.

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That range is insane, both as a range given preflop/flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That range is insane, both as a range given preflop/flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have villain's preflop range as even wider since he plays 38% of his hands. A fairly good estimate of villain's preflop range would be any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors 32s+ (actually about 37.3% of all hands dealt).

Preflop:
Board: 4c 3c As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.295% 83.25% 02.04% 300839 7373.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 14.705% 12.67% 02.04% 45765 7373.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, QTo+, JTo }

Flop:
Board: 4c 3c As 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.741% 80.53% 01.21% 12579 189.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 18.259% 17.05% 01.21% 2663 189.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, QTo+, JTo }

What is villain minraising with here? An Ace, a draw, a set? Why is he all of the sudden potting the turn? Maybe to get weak draws to fold. I do think we can tighten up villain's post flop range to 56, 33-66, AT+ and now we're a coin flip.

Board: 4c 3c As 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.214% 48.67% 01.54% 1135 36.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 49.786% 48.24% 01.54% 1125 36.00 { 66-33, ATs+, 65s, ATo+, 65o }

I'm still getting it all-in on the turn, but I would rather have done it on the flop.

AC

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }


[/ QUOTE ]That range is insane, both as a range given flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree with that range. I don't think he'll call with AJ though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so confused. Villains limps with AJ+? Villain folds AJ on the flop but raises flop and stacks off with 22?

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. djj is correct. Villain raises 11% of his hands which would rougly be 66+,A2s+,KQs,QJs,AJo+ (pairs 66+, AK, AQ, AJ, suited aces, KQs, QJs). He limped, so we need to widen the range. Since OP folded the hand, we can only guess what villain had here. Based on his turn PSB, he either has a big ace, a set or a a pair+OESD (56s/56o). I know my numbers show that villain would raise with 66+, but isn't it possible he just limped here? I see it all the time.

AC

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the min raise on flop, what is the best line to take if you hit/miss on turn?

I often 3b on flop w/ combos and miss on the turn.

Thanks.



[/ QUOTE ] You still want to get it in on the turn. Your equity takes a hit but it's still pretty good. I like bet-shove or CRAI but only if you're certain he'll fire again.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK now this is definitely bad unless you think villain is actually folding a ton of aces here and I seriously doubt that is the case for this villain at these stakes. Even with the oesd your equity takes a nosedive here.

[/ QUOTE ]

We need at least 44% equity to make a shove over his turn bet profitable.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,532 games 0.005 secs 906,400 games/sec

Board: As 4c 3c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.057% 42.01% 03.05% 1904 138.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 54.943% 51.90% 03.05% 2352 138.00 { 44-33, A2s+, 43s, A2o+, 43o }

And it's even better if he sometimes calls on a pair+draw.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,752 games 0.005 secs 950,400 games/sec

Board: As 4c 3c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.180% 43.96% 03.22% 2089 153.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 52.820% 49.60% 03.22% 2357 153.00 { 55-33, A2s+, 65s, 43s, A2o+, 43o }

[thoman8r]

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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }


[/ QUOTE ]That range is insane, both as a range given flop action and as a calling range.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree with that range. I don't think he'll call with AJ though.

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I'm so confused. Villains limps with AJ+? Villain folds AJ on the flop but raises flop and stacks off with 22?

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Agreed. djj is correct. Villain raises 11% of his hands which would rougly be 66+,A2s+,KQs,QJs,AJo+ (pairs 66+, AK, AQ, AJ, suited aces, KQs, QJs). He limped, so we need to widen the range. Since OP folded the hand, we can only guess what villain had here. Based on his turn PSB, he either has a big ace, a set or a a pair+OESD (56s/56o). I know my numbers show that villain would raise with 66+, but isn't it possible he just limped here? I see it all the time.

AC

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Well, given your revised range, we're in even better shape on the turn:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,608 games 0.005 secs 721,600 games/sec

Board: As 4c 3c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.335% 45.09% 04.24% 1627 153.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 50.665% 46.42% 04.24% 1675 153.00 { 55-33, A9s-A2s, 65s, 43s, ATo-A2o, 43o }

I included mediocre suited aces because he probably doesn't always raise them when he's not opening the pot.

[TS Clark]

Re-raise on the flop. If he wants to get it all in right here, I'd be happy as a clam.

Them big combo draws is tasty.

[You're No Daisy]

You are correct. As I mentioned in a previos post that took the modified range into consideration...we are a coin flip. Just out of curiosity, where did you come up with needing 44% equity to make the turn shove profitable? Thanks.

AC

[thoman8r]

Assuming villain calls our turn shove after his turn bet, we are betting 3.92 into a total pot of 8.86.

3.92 / 8.86 = ~ 44%

Of course I haven't taken into account rake so you probably need more like 45-46% equity assuming 5% rake.