25nl 2Pair v. shortstck on crap board

[wotttttttttt]

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

UTG: $9.65
MP: $22.85
CO: $24.70
BTN: $51.70
Hero (SB): $37.25
BB: $16.10

Pre-Flop: 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($0.75) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.25) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.75</font>, UTG calls $1.75

River: ($5.75) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ?</font> (Villain has 7$ behind)
Villain is typical semi-loose passive fish over small station.

Bet more on turn?

As I played it I can't decide whether to shove river or bet/fold river... he's so short I'm inclined to just shove, any ideas?

[ICMoney]

I don't like shoving river.

It was a limped pot and then you pot the flop into two players.

The straight/flush got there on the turn and you fire again.

If you shove, I doubt he can call w/ AT or some other one pair hand. You are either getting called by a worse 2 pair hand (unlikely) or a better hand.

If he is a loose-passive station he is much more likely to call a bet than to bet/raise.

I think I might try to bet $3 for value.

Sucks if he raises, but I can't see that small of a raise by that kind of a player being a bluff.

Thoughts?

[JimboNYY24]

check/call if you don't like bet fold. But i dont mind betting like 2-3 and folding to a shove if you think he never bluffs, or vice versa...never see a passive fish bluff here

[Brian O'Nolan]

fold pf. scs are not profitable OOP vs 2 shorties. as played, meh, I bet/call half pot or somethin.

[wotttttttttt]

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fold pf. scs are not profitable OOP vs 2 shorties. as played, meh, I bet/call half pot or somethin.

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lol this is so weak/tight
Profitability has so facets that attempting to claim that "such and such hands are not profitable to play" is ridiculous. Regardless of stacksize I'm getting 5:1 pot odds and am going to get raised here almost never by these guys.

[wotttttttttt]

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check/call if you don't like bet fold. But i dont mind betting like 2-3 and folding to a shove if you think he never bluffs, or vice versa...never see a passive fish bluff here

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C/C is horrible here because he never bluffs and won't bet a lot of weaker hands that he'll call a bet with.
I don't think he ever folds QT+ to a shove, certainly never a slowplayed overpair, but how much of his range is the flush and how much of his range is a ten that calls as opposed to a weaker made hand that folds to a shove but calls a 3$ bet?

[Brian O'Nolan]

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fold pf. scs are not profitable OOP vs 2 shorties. as played, meh, I bet/call half pot or somethin.

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lol this is so weak/tight
Profitability has so facets that attempting to claim that "such and such hands are not profitable to play" is ridiculous. Regardless of stacksize I'm getting 5:1 pot odds and am going to get raised here almost never by these guys.

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Do you think you are going to get yourself in much better spots than you ended up in on this hand? What is the best case scenario for you playing this OOP on every street? So many more times you're going to end up in marginal spots that will turn to -EV because you're OOP and you have minimal FE not taking the initiative and being the aggressor in the hand.

[TTStrangler]

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fold pf. scs are not profitable OOP vs 2 shorties. as played, meh, I bet/call half pot or somethin.

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lol this is so weak/tight
Profitability has so facets that attempting to claim that "such and such hands are not profitable to play" is ridiculous. Regardless of stacksize I'm getting 5:1 pot odds and am going to get raised here almost never by these guys.

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Do you think you are going to get yourself in much better spots than you ended up in on this hand? What is the best case scenario for you playing this OOP on every street? So many more times you're going to end up in marginal spots that will turn to -EV because you're OOP and you have minimal FE not taking the initiative and being the aggressor in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty much agree with Brian, I don't think completing with a SC like this is bad idea, but this is not the flop you are looking for here to be pumping the pot up like this. I know you don't like these "weak/tight" suggestions but IMO regularly potting the flop multiway from the SB with MP is going to consistently get you in -EV type situations.

[UFGatorGuy]

I can't believe preflop is being debated. What the hell do you guys run at, 12/8? I'm completing this with a limper, raising it if it was BvB. I check this flop into 2 other players, though. As played, bet $4 and call a shove. You're good here 90% of the time. Honestly folks, how often do some of you actually play poker at these stakes online? Do you have any idea the kind of hands these players go to showdown with? He'll easily call you with top pair, a horribly played overpair, maybe second pair. People are stupid and play stupid, stupid hands that have almost no chance of winning. It happens all the time. I feel like every post in this forum is "[censored], he has to have at least a set here if not four of a kind, what, the board isn't paired and he can't have four of a kind? He might have 3 cards, you never know."

[Nick C]

I think Villain is too short-stacked for you to be bet-folding the river. Even seemingly passive players will sometimes say "the hell with it" and shove when they're near the felt and facing a bet.

Still, bet-calling is an option. I probably bet $4 or so. Simply pushing, like you were considering, also seems okay to me.

[vixticator]

I bet $3 and instacall push. Very doubtful he has straight or flush.

[Das Budrick]

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fold pf. scs are not profitable OOP vs 2 shorties. as played, meh, I bet/call half pot or somethin.

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lol this is so weak/tight
Profitability has so facets that attempting to claim that "such and such hands are not profitable to play" is ridiculous. Regardless of stacksize I'm getting 5:1 pot odds and am going to get raised here almost never by these guys.

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Do you think you are going to get yourself in much better spots than you ended up in on this hand? What is the best case scenario for you playing this OOP on every street? So many more times you're going to end up in marginal spots that will turn to -EV because you're OOP and you have minimal FE not taking the initiative and being the aggressor in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

not completing preflop is pretty retarded, but donking the flop isn't good either.

as played definitely value bet the river and call a shove

[wotttttttttt]

No offense, but the fact that most responses consist of debates of whether to fold preflop, bet/call or check call river gives me hope to the future profitability of online poker.

Against a LOOSE PASSIVE player, you want to exploit passivity by seeing more flops cheaply with hands that can hit big, valuebet wide ranges but fold to aggression. If he raises I'm ahead like never, if I'm going to bet and call a shove then I should just shove to begin with because he's muchmuchmuchmuchmuch more likely to call a shove with a naked ten than he is to shove a naked ten over my river third barrel. As in, he won't shove it. I am ~0% equity against his shoving raise on river.

The only profitable ways to play this river are to bet/fold and to open shove.

And to the people saying not to bet this flop: I'm ahead of their calling range on flop since they show up with baby FDs and underpairs often in pots like these. Plus I play like 35/28/4 so I have an image to maintain

Board: Th 7h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.858% 45.57% 01.29% 125405 3556.50 { 8s7s }
Hand 1: 53.142% 51.85% 01.29% 142702 3556.50 { 22+, ATs+, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KTs, Kh9h, Kh8h, QhJh, QTs, Qh9h, Qh8h, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, T6s+, 98s, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 32s, ATo+, A3o, KTo, QTo, JTo, T7o+, 97o+, 75o+, 43o, 32o }

And I can play perfectly when any flushcard but the 8 comes because passive players turn their hands face up when they are strong.

[ICMoney]

If you bet and get raised on river are you assuming he will mostly have an overpair?

I said bet/fold initially. Just want to make sure I'm not always seeing monsters when I play against this kind of player.

I think he just calls with a good ten, right?

[wotttttttttt]

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If you bet and get raised on river are you assuming he will mostly have an overpair?

I said bet/fold initially. Just want to make sure I'm not always seeing monsters when I play against this kind of player.

I think he just calls with a good ten, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
A slowplayed overpair is the only thing I'm ahead of on river but generally they are scared of being sucked out on so they raise flop.

A shove on river is almost always a flush.

I'm debating whether JT/T9/99 etc. are folding to the shove but would call 3-4$, but then I could bet/fold.

[Rafpig]

River you should bet and call if he shoves. You can´t ever fold to a raise against a SS in this river IMO. And I really can´t believe I read people writing not to complete with SC´s. What´s most interesting for me is the flop decision. I tend to bet in similiar situations and giving up to the hand upon any resistance, unless I improve. People who recommend checking the flop, simply give up on the hand?

[Brian O'Nolan]

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Against a LOOSE PASSIVE player, you want to exploit passivity by seeing more flops cheaply with hands that can hit big, valuebet wide ranges but fold to aggression.

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The reason I said to fold pf is that I don't think you understand how important position is. Even more so against passive players at small stakes, because they rarely c/r or do anything tricky. Against these guys, you exploit their passivity by playing tons of pots in position. You seem pretty hung up on your stats- check your complete SB%, I bet it could stand to be lower.

[wotttttttttt]

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Against a LOOSE PASSIVE player, you want to exploit passivity by seeing more flops cheaply with hands that can hit big, valuebet wide ranges but fold to aggression.

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The reason I said to fold pf is that I don't think you understand how important position is. Even more so against passive players at small stakes, because they rarely c/r or do anything tricky. Against these guys, you exploit their passivity by playing tons of pots in position. You seem pretty hung up on your stats- check your complete SB%, I bet it could stand to be lower.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand exactly how important position is. You're making broad assumptions and to say that "playing a certain hand OOP" is unprofitable, especially vs. passive players in a limped pot, is blatantly false.

Poker is about situations, of which hand type and position make up like 25%. Opponent, image, psychology, and skill edge also play huge parts in determining profitability, and to restrict yourself to a certain "system" of where to play which hands is level 1 thinking.

[wotttttttttt]

This is the decision I've come to, and is likely one of my leaks:

Against an opponent with this stack, I really needed to resolve my ambivalence and decide whether or not I wanted to play for stacks when the flush card came on the turn giving me 2pair. At the time I bet too small, indicating I didn't want to play for stacks, which I believe was the incorrect decision in this situation.

A better line would've been to pot flop pot turn shove river, and I think my opponent stacks with most tens vs. this line. After I played the turn I needed to make a small value bet on the river and fold to a shove, which is only done with a narrow range that I'm doing very poorly against.

[Brian O'Nolan]

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A better line would've been to pot flop pot turn shove river, and I think my opponent stacks with most tens vs. this line.

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So your villain in this hand is mostly never folding top pair type hands. Which means you're going to have to make 2pr or better to win at showdown for the most part with SC type hands. And I am assuming this guy goes to showdown fairly often. Explain again how playing this hand OOP vs a station, shortstacked, is profitable when you gain minimal FE playing your draws aggressively?

[wotttttttttt]

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A better line would've been to pot flop pot turn shove river, and I think my opponent stacks with most tens vs. this line.

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So your villain in this hand is mostly never folding top pair type hands. Which means you're going to have to make 2pr or better to win at showdown for the most part with SC type hands. And I am assuming this guy goes to showdown fairly often. Explain again how playing this hand OOP vs a station, shortstacked, is profitable when you gain minimal FE playing your draws aggressively?

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1) Because he won't charge me to hit my draw because he won't bet or won't bet enough. He's also not THAT shortstacked, and given that it's a limped pot, the pot won't get out of hand unless I allow it to, especially vs. a passive opponent.
2) Because I'm getting 5:1 pot odds
3) Because he's limping such a wide range that I'm not in bad shape... and don't forget that 78 can hit top pair just as easily as K5. If the flop comes J85 I'm ahead, and he's calling. Because he's passive I can play my hand optimally, even OOP, because he checks behind so I can get to showdown and not worry about controlling potsize. When he bets, I know exactly where I stand and can fold easily.

But seriously, the answer to your question is much too complex for me to answer in a single post, though I'll do my best with some semblence of brevity. It basically comes down to the fact that I can play postflop poker well enough that I can do more than value bet TPGK+ and c/f anything less. I can determine the RANGE of hands my opponent is playing with, and determine how I fare against that range. I take what I know of my opponent and extend it to how I believe he will react to certain situations, and then use that knowledge to exploit his reactions to give me profit.

For example:

I limp 87s, flop comes J85hh. I lead and am called. I know my opponent likes to play too many high cards, so although this is such a drawy flop his range is more likely to be centered around a pair here than a draw. Opponents that always like to limp/call A3o or Q9o are this type.

Same flop, but this opponent likes to play suited cards. Now his range is more aligned with the many draws on the flop.

Postflop poker is about getting a feel for the texture of a flop, discerning what holdings your specific opponent is likely to have in the situation you've presented him, and then judging how best to profit now that you've made your analysis. If your opponent is a station, value bet a wider range: Yes, that includes middle pair. He probably will look you up with 77 since you have such a loose aggressive image.

Another opponent is a thinking TAG, and you can analyze a texture and your opponent's range to know when to double barrel bluff, even at the micros. Position certainly helps in such situations, but it's much less important vs. passive players that bet such a narrow range that they're liable to check 3 streets with TPGK.

It's clear to me that you've committed yourself to some kind of system that you've decided is tantamount to higher poker understanding. It isn't. Poker understanding is all about adaptability; that's why I'll be playing 4 tables and be running 40/35 at one and 16/15 at another.

[Supwithbates]

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A better line would've been to pot flop pot turn shove river, and I think my opponent stacks with most tens vs. this line.

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So your villain in this hand is mostly never folding top pair type hands. Which means you're going to have to make 2pr or better to win at showdown for the most part with SC type hands. And I am assuming this guy goes to showdown fairly often. Explain again how playing this hand OOP vs a station, shortstacked, is profitable when you gain minimal FE playing your draws aggressively?

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So you're saying that 78s needs two pair to beat top pair which villain apparently flops 100% of the time and can never fold.

Not only is this horribly wrong and nitty/monsters under the bed etc., as wotttt or whatever said you obviously aren't putting opponents on a range of hands at all, you're just assuming they always have top pair and won't ever fold.

PS 78 can still flop top pair, DUCY?