25 Max - Pair + FD = all in?

[UFGatorGuy]

Villain is awful. He's running at 73/27/1.33 over a very small sample (~25 hands) and obviously has no idea what he's doing. Also, what do you guys do here preflop? I could see arguments for folding, calling, and raising, and I've been confused in these situations. I think my flop raise is standard, do you guys agree? And obviously, do you call this push?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($39.05)
MP ($29.40)
Hero ($27.25)
SB ($14.10)
BB ($25.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $0.5</font>, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($2.10) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $1</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $38.55</font>, Hero ???

[creamfillin]

I wouldn't raise this flop. No Fold equity on this board/villain.

[Ikaika]

You have like 40% equity against a range of sets, straights, etc and you're getting 3:1 from the pot...guess this is a call. I don't think he'd play AcTc this way since he's already got the nuts so no worries about a higher flush.

[ASPoker8]

Call flop

as played snapcall and pray for a club

[NL Newbie]

Uhh they just stole your equity. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif
Call vs this guy, we've prob got like 9+2 outs atleast 60-70% Of time.

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
You have like 40% equity against a range of sets, straights, etc and you're getting 3:1 from the pot...guess this is a call. I don't think he'd play AcTc this way since he's already got the nuts so no worries about a higher flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something here? It looks more like 1.4:1 than 3:1.

We have like 30% equity against a set (2.3:1)
We have like 37% equity against a straight (1.7:1)
We have like 40% equity against two pair (1.5:1)
We're 45:55 vs. AA (had to check that one) (1.2:1)
We're about even with AK

I suppose we're ahead 3:1 against TT.

You think he has something worse often?

If you give him everything I just mentioned, we're behind 58.8:41.2, or 1.43:1, and the pot is giving us 1.38:1.

I'm not so sure this is such a snap call ...

[ev_slave]

Big draws are valuable because although you're a coinflip if called, you gain FE from being aggressive. This is the MAIN reason they are profitable. Since villain is AI, we obviously have 0 FE, so the profitability falls a lot.

Poker Stove Output:
Hand 0: Jc8c 49.031% Equity
Hand 1: TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo, 3d2s 50.969% Equity,

I think this is the optimistic range he's on. TT is probably out, as is the 32o to represent a pure bluff. If you take them out, your equity falls to 42%. Add in the fact that your draw is not to the nuts, your equity will fall if you weight hands with clubs more heavily. You need 44%+ to make calling profitable, so it's probably not a big mistake either way. If you feel lucky go for it.

I fold to avoid the giant swings taking these sorts of bets brings.