Is my set still good or is it time to move on?

[Lostit]

Villain in this hand is 47/6/2.3
His postflop can be a little shaky, but not quite as bad as his stats indicate. But still, not good

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

CO: $50
BTN: $17.45
SB: $19.50
BB: $50.75
Hero (UTG): $51.75
MP: $57.50

Pre-Flop: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, MP calls $1.75, CO folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($7.25) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, MP calls $5, BTN calls $5, BB folds

Turn: ($22.25) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $13</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $38.50</font>, Hero?[/i]

If we were heads up, then I'd probably call and not give credit here. This was community hand though, and it stands to reason that if anyone had the spade draw, they would have hung around on the flop, and one did.

Do you give credit here for the flush draw?

[Pokey]

This is a very simple math problem.

Villain has a flush -- period. Accept it, and then deal with it.

Given that villain has a flush we've got 10 clean outs to win. We can see six cards, so of the 46 cards unseen in the deck, 10 give us a win and 36 give us a loss at the river. That means that we need to get 3.6-to-1 odds for calling to be correct.

After calling, hero will have $6.50 behind, with MP covering us. Given that the pot will be about $100, we can be sure that villain will call our all-in if we hit on the river. So, we've got to wager $25.50 immediately to potentially win 22.25 (starting pot) + 13 (our turn bet) + 38.5 (villain's turn commitment) + 6.5 (river money) = 80.25. That means that the total implied odds of our call are 3.15-to-1 odds. We've got to fold.

And that's not even considering the possibility that villain might have a bigger set, which is a realistic worry. Villain could have slowplayed QQ hoping for overcalls, and quickly woken up to slam the door on a flush draw after the third spade hits (stupid, but not uncommon). I don't put much credence on this play, since it's about as likely as A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA semibluff-pushing the turn. In any case, the pot is offering too little to continue -- you've got to let it go.

[Nemesis69]

Pretty much the best poster ever

[SDone]

I've only been lurking these forums for a couple of weeks and I've already noticed you always post something useful. Thanks a lot.

[vixticator]

Pokey, you still bet the turn right?

[Snafu'd]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very simple math problem.

Villain has a flush -- period. Accept it, and then deal with it.

Given that villain has a flush we've got 10 clean outs to win. We can see six cards, so of the 46 cards unseen in the deck, 10 give us a win and 36 give us a loss at the river. That means that we need to get 3.6-to-1 odds for calling to be correct.

After calling, hero will have $6.50 behind, with MP covering us. Given that the pot will be about $100, we can be sure that villain will call our all-in if we hit on the river. So, we've got to wager $25.50 immediately to potentially win 22.25 (starting pot) + 13 (our turn bet) + 38.5 (villain's turn commitment) + 6.5 (river money) = 80.25. That means that the total implied odds of our call are 3.15-to-1 odds. We've got to fold.

And that's not even considering the possibility that villain might have a bigger set, which is a realistic worry. Villain could have slowplayed QQ hoping for overcalls, and quickly woken up to slam the door on a flush draw after the third spade hits (stupid, but not uncommon). I don't put much credence on this play, since it's about as likely as A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA semibluff-pushing the turn. In any case, the pot is offering too little to continue -- you've got to let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]
Pokey, would your analysis change if hero had flopped middle set? What about top set?

[kroeliewoelie]

What do you guys think about the flop bet? I usually pot the flop on 2 flush boards. Is this overly protective and am I losing value?

[ROcketRO]

You didn't say how BTN acted on the turn. If he calls I'm folding right away. If he folds, I'd be considering a call because I might be up against AQ with the As.

[Pokey]

vixticator asked:
[ QUOTE ]

Pokey, you still bet the turn right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I do. I don't give MP immediate credit for the flush just because it got there. He could easily have AQ or some such thing and be playing his hand. He could also have some crappier trash like AK holding on to overs or even JT looking for that sweet inside straight. Considering how loose he is, I can't even completely rule out Q8 for the top two pair. Nonetheless, I think if we fire again when the board hits a third spade villain is not continuing without either a VERY strong draw/hand or a made flush. This turn bet really does let us know where we stand, usually winning the pot immediately and occasionally allowing us to escape with our stack intact.

Snafu'd asked:
[ QUOTE ]
would your analysis change if hero had flopped middle set? What about top set?

[/ QUOTE ]

Q: Which of the following does not belong: oversets, the easter bunny, compassionate conservatives, and radio DJs?

A: Radio DJs do not belong in the list, because they're the only one in there that exists.

That's right: I don't believe in oversets. You change that 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif to 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif and I go broke in this hand, every time. Bottom set on a dry board is worth my stack, period. That's doubly true against this kind of villain, since I would not be surprised to see him stack off with TP2K on a dry board.

In short, the strength of my set is irrelevant, here -- what matters is the connectedness of the board. Villain's play looks EXACTLY like a flush draw that hit on the turn, and he's a bad enough player that I don't give him credit for a bluff-raise for 75 BBs.

kroeliewoelie asked:
[ QUOTE ]

What do you guys think about the flop bet? I usually pot the flop on 2 flush boards. Is this overly protective and am I losing value?


[/ QUOTE ]

Given how many people are in the pot right now, charging full price to draws isn't a huge mistake. The benefit of a smaller bet is that you get called lighter, and that just puts more cash in your pocket. Also, if you get called in multiple places it lets you get all-in faster (ideally on a blank turn), charging MAXIMUM price to drawing hands. Sometimes the fastest way to build a pot is to bet smaller, not bigger.

Now, if you were heads-up against an opponent who is known to overpay for draws, go ahead and push the limit.

ROcketRO said:
[ QUOTE ]

You didn't say how BTN acted on the turn. If he calls I'm folding right away. If he folds, I'd be considering a call because I might be up against AQ with the As.


[/ QUOTE ]

The opposite is true: if Button calls you now have a sufficient overlay to go hunting for your full house. Otherwise you're getting insufficient odds to chase. While it's POSSIBLE that villain could have A/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, I just don't find it likely -- the guy has a 2.3 aggro, not a 6.3 aggro. We're not talking about an insane maniac, here; we're talking about an aggressive postflop player. Hero has announced his hand twice, and villain doesn't care -- I just have to give him credit, here. Perhaps I'm just weak-tight. /images/graemlins/grin.gif