intersting turn spot

[GARDOCK]

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

CO: $15.80
Hero (BTN): $45.80
SB: $54.35
BB: $30
UTG: $42.90
MP: $34.90

Pre-Flop: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, SB calls $2.25, BB folds, MP calls $2

Flop: ($8) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $12</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $7.50

Turn: ($32) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $9</font>

I think the flop action is fairly standard. On the turn Hero has 31 left and Sb covers. Would you just push her knowing your hand may be good and if not you have outs to the nut flush. Or is calling a better play. I think folding is out of the question at this point. My main concern with pushing is that it may force out a hand that will shove any river. I've noticed a bit lately that sb will have air here a decent percent of the time, and I don't want to shove him off of that. It seems like people are adjusting since it is so hard to play in these 6 handed rooms oop, and in that adjustment they tend to repop postflop with air. I know shoving the turn is probably the standard play on here, but I think a lot of posters on here take standard lines too often. Sorry for the rant, any replies are welcome.

[Riverflow]

You say you think SB will bet the turn as such with air a fair percentage of the time...but will SB c/r the flop with air just the same?...what are SB's stats?...what is he cold calling a raise with preflop OOP?

The c/r may very well be b/c of a draw that hit, and he is trying to keep you in, or get you to push, if you say that seems to be a standard play for you to push, then perhaps SB knows this. What else is he c/r with on the flop...well without his stats it's hard to say, a set perhaps considering the call preflop? You think SB would do this with KQ or take it easy? Would SB slowplay QQ and up preflop, and is now hesitant because the flush fell but doesn't want to check..in which case you're beat anyway, what are you really beating here?

SB is doing c/r flop with draw which means you now lose, c/r probably with a range that beats you, QT, 33, maybe even TT preflop stats permitting, maybe AQ which means you split, if you don't hit your ace high flush on the river. KQ also in range villains aggression permitting. He could even have the K high flush draw with KQ.

IMO, if he had a set, he would not play the turn like that generally, and if he has a flush, he would very well play it like that to try to keep you in or get you to raise. The fact that he's betting so little, IMO, means you can call since you do have outs if you're beat and if you hit the nut flush you're golden. If you're gonna push the turn, he's only folding on a bluff and calling with a majority of hands that beat you again though it's hard to get his range with no preflop stats...if you think he'd c/r flop clean bluff then bet out turn so little again as a bluff...well then, so be it, sounds farfetched though, especially considering again, common play indicates he might get pushed with such a little bit.

[GARDOCK]

how would you have played the hand, good sir?

[Riverflow]

I'm no expert nor am I trying to come off as one, just giving my two cents cause it helps the learning process.

If I had no stats on him, I would've either pushed the flop, since he has a big drawing range I wanna make him pay for, or I would've called the flop, definately called the turn and see what happens on the river, if I hit my flush it's simple, if I don't and he pushes, it'd be hard to call the extra 30. I play on Party and don't know the general tendencies of this limit at Stars, but pushing the flop would probably be my choice without stats on the flop. His c/r range, AQ, KQ, 33, TT, QT, KJ, slowplayed preflop QQ, KK, AA, AK perhaps though unlikely...and this is being conservative, if he has reason to he might do this with JJ, 99, 88 although generally the first two are reraised preflop if he's typical.

If I plug these into pokerstove, not including QQ, KK, AA: 56% for you

With QQ+: 50.3% you

Not to mention the bluff probability, lets say 5-10%, you're looking good...even not factoring more tricky plays like the midpair.

His call range if you push is pretty much the same, he's going to call with his draws, his sets, the overpairs and even the top pairs probably since he might think you're drawing if he's not, or if he has a backdoor as well...and your fold equity is basically his bluffing frequency, again the 5-10%...I'd probably push the flop, stats would definately help this range though.

This info should come with a disclosure though that I am no expert, heed the words cautiously.

[Milky]

Any reads on SB? I probably would have pushed flop myself, as there are tons of draws there and you likely have the best hand.

As played I'd just call his bet as most all draws just got there and I don't see him folding anything you beat. You're getting good odds to hit the flush, so call while you're likely behind and try to draw out.

[GARDOCK]

i think pushing the flop for 40 more is awful. What worse hand is going to call there?

[ryang]

well you might not get a worse hand to call but you will def get a draw to fold, this is about protection too. i dont know i think you're already beat tho.

[Numfar]

I wouldn't have thought that pushing the Turn was standard - looks like an easy call to me. The issue in this hand is the flop - you really need to make a decision there. Calling isn't great because so many bad cards can come on the Turn. I would make a decision based on stats - if he's tight or passive I might fold. Without stats or against an aggressive player I think I'd have to push.

[Riverflow]

All the draws listed might probably call..especially if it's a flush/straight combination draw...plus you have the backdoor nut flush draw...so if he is flushing that trims his outs. If you don't think this player would call that with a draw don't do it, but then if you think you're already beat why call the flop unless you expect odds to whatever outs you think you have or you think you can get him off his hand later, which I doubt cause if you don't think he's doing it to a flop push then hard to see it happening later on...many players would call that push on the flop with a draw after they've invested that much.

[GARDOCK]

I don't see how we can assume im already beat from one raise. If in fact I am then shoving is clearly not right. However I am in position and its costing me roughly 1/5 of my remaining stack to see his turn action and the turn card. I really feel that shoving the turn is a bad play as it will get a call, in which case i'm beat, or a fold to a hand that I was probably way ahead of.