NL50 Flopped nuts now vulnerable - Shove river anyway?

[Dr_Doctr]

Hand converter I use isn't working. Villian seems like a bit of a calling station postflop but the read isn't very strong. He has never limped UTG before and the rest of the table are passive so I limp along. Hero is Lag - How is my line here?

Effective Stacks 60 / 5 players

Hero is CO with T /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks

Flop (2)

8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q /images/graemlins/club.gif, J /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG bets 3, Hero raises to 11 (probably should have raised more - agree?), 2 folds, UTG calls

Turn (23)

8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG checks, Hero bets 20, UTG calls

River (62)

2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG checks, Hero shoves for about 28 more.

[corsakh]

Fold pre. Flop is good. Check river.

[SemiteStoned]

I raise or fold preflop. Postflop is fine up until the river, check that through.

[vixticator]

I like it, standard IMO.

[Dr_Doctr]

Thanks for the comments.

[PayoffWiz]

Im with the shove river crowd.

[Maunzekater]

Why should we ever shove river? Well, if he is a bit of a calling station, he might call with AQ, QJ, or a horrible played AA or stuff. Even a calling station folds a busted straight draw here (assuming he is not completely retarted).

I'd check behind b/c i don't see value in shoving.

[CruS]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it, standard IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Schiester]

Can someone please explain the river shove here.

I understand a boat isn't on the cards but how likely is a flush here?

Thanks.

[Dr_Doctr]

Well I havn't come across many opponents good enough to check a flush on the river at these stakes. And here I thought he would think that I would read him as drawing to a flush and would immediately check behind river with something like 2 pair - if he really does have a flush it should seem obvious to him that I would suspect it. The board is scary enough for me to check behind all sorts of quality hands so this would make it more likely for him to bet the flush if he had it. A boat doesn't make sense given the action. The only real hands I could really put him on that I beat was AQ or a donkishly played overpair. But this coupled with an allowance for random idiotic play and my image made me think there was value in the shove - that was the theory anyway.

[Casper05]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold pre. Flop is good. <font color="blue"> Shove </font> river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
I havn't come across many opponents good enough to check a flush on the river at these stakes.

[/ QUOTE ]Same. And very few are folding top pair, no one two pair or set. A flush leads here a vast majority of the time. Shoving river is super standard. I wouldn't even think of checking behind tbh.

[Dr_Doctr]

[ QUOTE ]
Shoving river is super standard. I wouldn't even think of checking behind tbh.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's because you think we have a flush when we actually have a straight and that we get value from sets when the board is paired - or is it a level?

[corsakh]

I'm not worried about flush here, it sure is betting. I am worried about a full house that is afraid to bet because it may represent a flush in your eyes and worried about what hands you beat that he calls you with.