How's my line?

[KCrow]

I was getting almost 3:1 odds to call on the river, I figured, a flush would most likey have bet the turn for value hoping I had a king. If the villain has a king or boat it's quite a strange line they've taken.

Villain is 22/10/2.26

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

BTN: $20.05
SB: $53.80
BB: $55.25
Hero (UTG): $69.50
CO: $64.80

Pre-Flop: J/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3

Turn: ($10.25) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($10.25) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5

[kroeliewoelie]

You have some showdown value and you only have to be right here 25% of the time to break even on this call. I think 8x will bet here sometimes. Maybe 99,TT, weaker Jx. So well-played, but don't be surprised if you lose.

[ragip]

I think after the turn check he's going to be betting a fairly wide range on the river, so I would definitely call.

[hallo!]

[ QUOTE ]
You have some showdown value and you only have to be right here 25% of the time to break even on this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain please, I dont get the math stuff /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ragip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have some showdown value and you only have to be right here 25% of the time to break even on this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain please, I dont get the math stuff /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

When we need to make a decision at the end, there's $15 in the pot. Say we call four times and we lose 3 of them, we lose a total of 3 x $5 = 15$. The fourth we win, and we win the $15 dollars in the pot to break even. So winning once of every 4 times that we call is sufficient to break even.

[ama0330]

Its a thin spot but you'll see a mid PP here a decent amount of the time, and your odds are good. I call and reload.

[kroeliewoelie]

On the math part. You have to call 5 dollar in a 15 dollar pot. That is 1:3. So 1/(1+3) = 1/4 = 25% is needed to be good.

Other example:
If you have to call 10 dollar in 15 dollar pot, you are getting 2:3. So you need 2/(2+3) = 40% to break even.

This is the reason minbetting vulnerable hands on dangerous boards is bad. Say your opponent holds AA on a 2 flush board , you hold the nutflush draw, the pot is $2. Villain bets $0,20 into that pot " to extract value". You now have to win the pot 0,2/(0,2+2,2) = 1/12 ~ 8%. Since you will make your flush 33% of times you can profitably draw to the flush.

If villain bets pot, you need 2/(2+2)=50% to break even and a call based on pot odds alone is not justified. Of course other reason for calling may be compelling, such as implied odds and position.

[hallo!]

thx so much for the help /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Lego05]

This is real thin. It'd be an easy call if the diamonds hadn't completed. And it'd be a little easier if you had AJ.

As is I'm not really sure it matters too much. I think I'd take a quick peak at his river aggression and make a decision based on that.