[10NL] - AA - good laydown on scary board?

[maciczka]

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Villain is 29/24/1/67 over 65 hands, calls cbet 70% of the time. Comments on all streets please. How often does he call me with Kx on that flop?

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $9.56
Hero: $9.95
Button: $18.01
SB: $13.69
BB: $10.02

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.85, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.6</font>, BB calls.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($2.05, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: T/images/graemlins/club.gif ($2.05, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $1.02</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $1.02 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: $2.05

[Ramana]

bad fold. chk behind on turn is ok, but only if your plan is to call any reasonable river bet. you chk turn behind to keep the pot small in a dangerous situation and you invite him to bluff river. it's a good way to get value from worse hands. think about his range. a player who plays so many hands agressively will bet into you with way more that just a K. think about how he perceives your play, you raise pf, cbet and then shut down, same thing you would have done w 33 or AQ etc. you've massively underrepresented your hand.

He calls your cbet w several draws, 8, 9, 89, or worse at least as often as with a K. him having a K is statistically unlikely once the turn paired it.

[maciczka]

great response, thx

[kroeliewoelie]

This is a horrible fold. You are getting 3 to 1, so you only have to win 25% of the time to break even on a call here. There are several reasons for villain betting the river:

1) value betting Kx
2) bluffing because you look weak
3) value betting 8x,9x,Tx because he thinks you cannot possibly have a king

In the first scenario you are beaten, but in the other two you are good. And scenario 2) and 3) definitely happen more often than 25% of the time.

So instacall.

[IlPug]

[ QUOTE ]
bad fold. chk behind on turn is ok, but only if your plan is to call any reasonable river bet. you chk turn behind to keep the pot small in a dangerous situation and you invite him to bluff river. it's a good way to get value from worse hands. think about his range. a player who plays so many hands agressively will bet into you with way more that just a K. think about how he perceives your play, you raise pf, cbet and then shut down, same thing you would have done w 33 or AQ etc. you've massively underrepresented your hand.

He calls your cbet w several draws, 8, 9, 89, or worse at least as often as with a K. him having a K is statistically unlikely once the turn paired it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you hit the nail on the head here.

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 3 to 1, so you only have to win 25% of the time to break even on a call here

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a great point. breaking a hand down the way these two posters do will improve your game to no-end.

[Aceium]

Wow. I'm really surprised that you would fold AA for a half-pot bet of 10BB. Even if villan is extremely tight, AA is still worth a call. Checking the turn here is good if you want to quell action you might get from 3 kings, but you still have to be calling a bet on the river. Sometimes you're beat but I think you're ahead enough of the time to make this an easy call.

You'll lose a lot of value in your aces if you fold to small bets like this.