10nl do we fold a set here?

[Monster207]

At the time I had no reads on villain, it was 2nd hand.
Are we calling this all the time? Or do you fold? She could have two pair sometime but we are looking at a flush most of the time... +ev or -ev on call ?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com)Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

UTG: $9.05
CO: $9.10
BTN: $18.90
SB: $10.55
Hero (BB): $9.95

Pre-Flop: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $0.30</font>, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $1</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.30</font>, SB calls $2.30

Turn: ($7.20) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $6.95 and is All-In</font>

Results: $7.20 Pot ($7.20 Rake)

[yegon]

yes, I think we have to fold here

[creamfillin]

snap call, he could be doing this with overpairs, Jx, alot of stuff you beat

[yegon]

villain's action on the flop screams FD IMO.

I would expect overpairs and Jx to lead a safe turn but not a flush completing one.

Maybe I'm wrong. There might be players that would play overpair like this. I would not.

[Monster207]

I think overpairs are very unlikely as they would have shoved
over my rr and been afraid of a draw as well. I think this is really either two pair,flush draw, or straight draw.

[creamfillin]

Villains will do weird [censored] like this with overpairs/AJ/KJ all the time. Readless at 10NL, there's no way you're not good at least 40% of the time here. I call with a smile.

[bsball8806]

This is a snapcall. I think there's a good chance villain has a J with a K/A of hearts (call).

[willyc]

I think this is a marginal call.

Given the pre-flop raise but no reads, I ran a somewhat conservative range including made flushes with QhTh or better, JJ,88,QQ+ but only with redraws to the flush, AhJx, and one air hand to factor in a bluff, and I got us at 55% equity, when we need 49% to call.

It could be more marginal that this and maybe even getting into -EV territory just because so many players at these stakes love suited trash so there may be many more XhXh hands in villain's range, and these same players rarely show aggression / shut down when they don't have the flush, because they're so used to the other donk having it, etc.

On a side note, remember that a set improves to beat a made flush about 1 in 3 times from the flop and about 1 in 4.5 times from the turn. That comes in handy when you think you're up against a flush and you're trying to decide how good your odds to call are.

Obviously here we're not getting 3.5:1, but we're also not 100% sure villain has a flush, so we need to decide how likely it is that he does. For a very rough calculation let's say we're pretty sure he has a flush (say 2/3), forget about set over set because it's pretty rare, 15% he has a redraw, 10% he thinks he's good with AJ no hearts but is drawing dead, and 10% he's bluffing with air. We win about 25% of the time he has a flush, about 80% when he has a redraw, and 100% the other times:

.67*.23+.1*.8+.2*1 ~ 50% so a marginal call.

If you're a nerd like me you can come up with this, type the sum into google, get back 50%, and hit call all before your time bank runs out. (Or you could just say "wtf I have a set - call.")

[Monster207]

good post willyc. i don't crunch the numbers on the spot but I feel like at 10nl I can get a decent idea of their range and act accordingly on how much equity i have in the pot etc.

[Subzero_Wins]

This is a very easy call, you see the flush a lot but you're getting 2:1 and you have him drawing slim more often than not.

[HANABI]

I think i would raise a bit more on the flop. Suppose we know he has a flush draw (25% equity vs your set), all you have to do is make him put in more than 25% of his remaining stack on the flop and you can call a heart turn profitably knowing that even if he has a flush, in the long run you will still make money. That's not counting the fact that you will boat up 22% of the time. So if he has $8.70 left, i'd like a flop reraise to $3.75 instead of $3.30. As played call and i dont think its close.

[ShipitFMA]

XhJ is playing it the same, i snapcall

[rrrorrim]

[ QUOTE ]
villain's action on the flop screams FD IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... Villain probably wouldn't call like that with backdoor flush draw.

However, villain might well have something like KJo -- the King being a hearts.

[rrrorrim]

Sweet... guess I'm not the only one who thinks A/K + J

[yegon]

[ QUOTE ]
XhJ is playing it the same

[/ QUOTE ]

including the minraise/call on the flop? doesn't the flop action look more like a draw?

seeing the other reply's I think calling is not bad though.

Would this change if both had $10 more dollars behind to bet on the river?

[rrrorrim]

[ QUOTE ]
including the minraise/call on the flop? doesn't the flop action look more like a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that you bring it up, I would say J with Qh kicker. Possibly Kh. Villain is acting like she has top pair but is wary because Hero's play makes it seem like he has top pair with high kicker or a high pocket pair.

I'm not so sure she had two hearts... because look at the change in personality on the turn. It's like she was indecisive at having a lower kicker (apparently) than Hero, and the potential for a flush pushed her over the edge and made her very aggressive.

[KRE8R]

At NL10 he is doing this with so many hands you are ahead of. Plus even if he did make a flush you still have outs. This seems like a definite call.

[kroeliewoelie]

Nice analysis willyc, I agree it's marginal. But the fact that the turn card is 2h, which does not help any hand besides the flushdraw, makes me lean towards folding. If the turn card were Ah, this would be very, very different.

[jocke4]

I would call here all day, spike the freaking 8 on the river.
boom.

[pdoran10]

this is a call. we are likely still ahead of his shoving range, and if we arent, we have equity, so this is a snap call.