I think I have a serious leak. Help me fix it.

[The once and future king]

Ok so have just started grinding out micro NL (used to be a donkandgo player) have played about 30K hands 10NL/25NL not all of which are in my PTdb due to whoring uncompatible sites. With bonuses I have made about 1.2K and am looking to make the move to NL50.

So for kicks I load my ptdb into pokerev calculator, and have been surprised by the results. These graphs say it all:

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1761/screenshot10143522dk9.png

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1687/screenshot2kf3.gif

Now this may be many things as I am new to this NL thing:

[]Standard
[]Sample size to small
[]Horrible river/showdown spewing.

According to the EV software I am losing my shirt at showdowns but am doing ok on other streets. There could be many reasons for this:

Calling to much
Bluffing to much
FPS

I also think that maybe the aggression that is winning me pots on the flop and river is losing me pots on the river, and that I need maybe to stop firing that third barrel.

There is however the strong possibility that this graph is meaningless because it is so strongly biased towards 25NL results as against 10NL, and I have just recently tilted off about $200 which I think is the reason for the big cliff fall and the end of the graph. However even before then my showdown winnings were less then stella.

Anyway any input would be appreciated, and also just typing this helps at it serves to concrete the fact that I must pay attention to this in my future play and observe results.

I want to move up to 50NL and want to make sure this issue is dealt with, though currently unsure exactly what the issue is and even if there is an issue.

[corsakh]

I even know what it is. Your name.

[yegon]

i read somewhere that you can not have the green line above red/blue at low stakes bc everyone calls too much. Well obv you can /images/graemlins/smile.gif

You are doing something well and I would like to know what it is, my green line is known as the "x axis" unfortunately /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Spurious]

my green line is above the blue line, it has something to do with aggression.

but OP has a leak. He basicly never wins a pot at showdown.

I think you should review your turn and river numbers, maybe you call too much on the turn with draws. Payoff with TP hands where villains show you you are beat.

[DockDD]

In SNGs, they are scared to call off their last dollar. At micro limits, they try to give it to you. Rarely do you need to bluff them.

My guess is you are too aggressive on the turn with marginal hands, so you get stuck on the river. Pretty sure the micro limit winning strat is: raise some reasonable cards preflop, continue betting on the flop, fold to resistance on turn/river unless you've actually made something.

Or just jump up to $1000NL, their hands never reach SD.

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
In SNGs, they are scared to call off their last dollar. At micro limits, they try to give it to you. Rarely do you need to bluff them.

My guess is you are too aggressive on the turn with marginal hands, so you get stuck on the river. Pretty sure the micro limit winning strat is: raise some reasonable cards preflop, continue betting on the flop, fold to resistance on turn/river unless you've actually made something.

Or just jump up to $1000NL, their hands never reach SD.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds about right, however I want to fix this is a way that keeps the green line where it is, and moves the blue line up.

Anyone know how I use PT to look at my turn play/results?

[Spurious]

Click on the more detail box and stats will popup.

Look at Turn/River AF, Fold to Riverbet, Turn-River%, WTSD, W$@SD

[2mb]

Try making a new graph without the data from untested sites. Those graphs are not reliable if they contain hh's from sites that don't show mucked hands at showdown. I think that's part of the problem.

[toddxlogan]

OP:

This is interesting, but it's basically impossible to analyze without your PT data. Upload your general and "detailed" (and "position" stats and post them (probably in the "stats" page or else this may get locked), and i'm sure the collective UNL group will see what we/they can do about telling you whats wrong.

GL.

Todd

[bazooka87]

Post your stats in here or stats thread, an EV graph can only tell you very little about your play

[Nemesis69]

http://www.amicustheunion.org/images/Plumber%20JTL.jpg

[bknollenberg]

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.amicustheunion.org/images/Plumber%20JTL.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
QF god dammit was gonna post that too.

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
OP:

This is interesting, but it's basically impossible to analyze without your PT data. Upload your general and "detailed" (and "position" stats and post them (probably in the "stats" page or else this may get locked), and i'm sure the collective UNL group will see what we/they can do about telling you whats wrong.

GL.

Todd

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are the stats: (25NL only)

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/9417/pokerstatsah8.gif

[bazooka87]

Raise/fold more preflop rather than flatcalling

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise/fold more preflop rather than flatcalling

[/ QUOTE ]

What stats make you say that? How will this stop me spewing on the river.

[thac]

24 vpip and 12 pfr.. should be like 24/20 or something in that area

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
24 vpip and 12 pfr.. should be like 24/20 or something in that area

[/ QUOTE ]

K, this is something I have recently started doing alot lot more (raising preflop), so I think in the next 20K hands or so the pfr number will increase significantly.

However I dont think this is the reason for the river spewage.

[Spurious]

your flop aggression factor is too, way too low!!!!

cbet more, cbet nearly every flop HU, and many 3way flops.

F-AF < T-AF < R-AF, my stats are the opposite.

Basicly what you are doing is following:
You check a hand which is probably best on the flop. Villain outdraws you on turn and river, but that's the time when you bet, so you bet while you are behind, and check while ahead.

You should decrease your rates on turn and river, but increase the flop one's.


Another thing:
I think you pay off with too many hands on the river. Your W$@SD when called on the river is much lower than the other ones.

Something else regarding your flop play as PFR:
You respect donk bets too much. Raise some of those bets, they are not always strenght.
Raise those bets and see what they mean. Make a note on the player and exploit it.


And of course raise more preflop, it will help you to filter hands, that beat you on later streets.

[ev_slave]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
24 vpip and 12 pfr.. should be like 24/20 or something in that area

[/ QUOTE ]

K, this is something I have recently started doing alot lot more (raising preflop), so I think in the next 20K hands or so the pfr number will increase significantly.

However I dont think this is the reason for the river spewage.

[/ QUOTE ]

EDITED TO POST LINK AT BOTTOM:

It may not be the reason, but there are some indirect links. PF raises gets some hands to fold that make random two-pairs you don't see coming (and therefore pay). Also, I notice that you're calling a lot from the BB and therefore playing a lot of pots OOP. You can double check to see if this is a major leak by going to "Positional Stats" and seeing BB/Hand from BB. If it's less than -0.5, you're calling too much and not making the money back... you might be better just folding everything.

The other thing that jumped out at me is that W$@SD when you call a river bet is ~30%. That strikes me as far too low. If the river bet is on average about half the pot, then you're at best breaking even by calling riverbets, but if the bets are larger this is a serious issue. Finally, I'm not 100% just from the stats but it looks like you may not fold the turn enough. Flop play is sometimes ambiguous due to c-betting and floating plays etc, but by the turn you're 90% what your final hand is going to be and you should be starting to get a good idea of your villain, so don't feel like you have to go to the river if you make it to the turn?

Like I said, I'm not 100% that these are fully supported by the stats, but I think they are so be thinking about it. I had similar leaks moving from SnGs and in addressing them my results have really improved.

Link for how to use PT to check for links:
Pokey teaches PT (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=494666 9&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=)

[The once and future king]

Thanks for the posts guys, interesting and valuable information.

One thing that has confused me slightly from reading the link is:

[ QUOTE ]
My general guideline is that you should raise at least half the hands you play, from every position on the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well my PFR would seem consistent with that 24/12. Is this not the taken line anymore? Getting PFR to 20% would seem difficult just due to the fact that my VPIP when not in a blind is only 13%.

My Vpip/pfr by position:

Bttn: 30/21 (70%)
1: 20/16 (80%)
2: 16/13 (81%)
3: 14/11 (78%)
4: 10/9 (90%)
5: 10/8 (80%)
6: 8/7 (87%)
7: 5/5 (100%)

These numbers show I am raising well over half my hands when not in the blinds and that the majority of my hands are raised when I enter a pot oop. I could however be raising more in the button. However my numbers for the blinds are

BB 21/6 (-0.25BB)
SB 50/8 (-0.02BB)

So, should I be either raising or folding alot more from the blinds? I suppose folding more often, as I dont want to be playing oop to often with whatever I pick up in the blinds. Or I can start trying to pick off more pots that are limped multiway with a hefty pfr raise from the blinds followed by CB, something I do as standard from LP, but have been wary of doing in the SB/BB.

[thac]

wowwwwwwww fold the blinds a LOT more.

edit for Chomp -

Basically because you're in the worst possible position and you're gonna be OOP against almost everyone (BB v SB is different). You can't get value as easily from your hands, and it's just really tough to play OOP.