Big pot OOP deep

[corsakh]

Villain is sickmyduck on ipoker. Hes all right. 18/12/3, pretty solid. Positionally aware. Little weak. Straightforward. He called my 3bets a few times, I suspect JJ and AK types of hands. Does not get out of line. I run good at 19/17 and do not get out of line either - plenty of fish at the table.

iPoker
6 handed
50NL

CO $10
Hero in SB $150
Villain in BB $150

Anyway. Fold, fold. Fishy limps. I complete with 77 (was busy on other tables), Viallin raises to $2.5.

Ok, he is tight in the blinds. Very tight. I think 88 is the worst hand he raises here. I dont think he raise AJ. Maybe AQ, but I dont know. He seems to avoid pots with me recently and does not seem to be willing to play big pots even though he has position. Definetly not a steal, I think its safe to put him on a big hand here, TT+, AK type.

Fish calls. I call.

I dont want to be 3betting OOP after I completed either /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Flop comes 689r.
Ok. Whats the plan /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Hero checks. Villain pots. Fish call all in (he had pot bet left).

I am positive he has a big pair. Pot is $23. $7.5 to call.

[ama0330]

This advice comes from the MSNL'er I am currently sitting next to.

You should raise this flop because you are deep and he has to fold most of his betting range (overpairs etc) to your raise. All the decisions are close in EV (raise call fold) but raising gives you the best chance to take it down.

If you were 100bb deep this would NOT be a good idea but theres almost no way that this guy is going to call you off with an overpair so deep.

[hoyasaxa]

[ QUOTE ]
This advice comes from the MSNL'er I am currently sitting next to.

You should raise this flop because you are deep and he has to fold most of his betting range (overpairs etc) to your raise. All the decisions are close in EV (raise call fold) but raising gives you the best chance to take it down.

If you were 100bb deep this would NOT be a good idea but theres almost no way that this guy is going to call you off with an overpair so deep.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is this is not msnl. You have to be really, really sure he isnt going to stack off with an overpair, which is pretty common at 50nl. I would be much happier just calling, as you'll probably see the river for free with fishy all in.

[Daniel LeClaire]

[ QUOTE ]
This advice comes from the MSNL'er I am currently sitting next to.

You should raise this flop because you are deep and he has to fold most of his betting range (overpairs etc) to your raise. All the decisions are close in EV (raise call fold) but raising gives you the best chance to take it down.

If you were 100bb deep this would NOT be a good idea but theres almost no way that this guy is going to call you off with an overpair so deep.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can close this thread now, because this is the correct answer.

[thac]

Raising to create fold equity against BB's obvious overpair isn't so bad. Pot is 7.5 preflop and 22.5 after fish's call allin, raising to like 35 puts him in a [censored] spot because he has to put us on exactly 77, 76, or 78 to continue in the hand. If he calls/shoves, we have 40% equity against an overpair that is not TT so we gladly take our chances at a huge pot, but in general it should freeze him up some.

The only problem comes on the turn if villain just calls and there's ~80 in the pot with 120 left.

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This advice comes from the MSNL'er I am currently sitting next to.

You should raise this flop because you are deep and he has to fold most of his betting range (overpairs etc) to your raise. All the decisions are close in EV (raise call fold) but raising gives you the best chance to take it down.

If you were 100bb deep this would NOT be a good idea but theres almost no way that this guy is going to call you off with an overpair so deep.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can close this thread now, because this is the correct answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so fast this is the MICROS not msnl and most villains(absent a read) are not capable of folding an overpair..While I do like the advice, at the micros it's is very villain dependant...

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This advice comes from the MSNL'er I am currently sitting next to.

You should raise this flop because you are deep and he has to fold most of his betting range (overpairs etc) to your raise. All the decisions are close in EV (raise call fold) but raising gives you the best chance to take it down.

If you were 100bb deep this would NOT be a good idea but theres almost no way that this guy is going to call you off with an overpair so deep.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can close this thread now, because this is the correct answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so fast this is the MICROS not msnl and most villains(absent a read) are not capable of folding an overpair..While I do like the advice, at the micros it's is very villain dependant...

[/ QUOTE ]

But we don't care if he calls or raises sometime, as long as he folds a small amount of time, we break even. We have 10 outs to the effective nuts against this guy, and if we just call and the turn is a 10, we get like no more money in the pot. I'd take a 40/60 with all the money that's in the pot now - if he shoves, make a note of how he never folds an overpair and move on.

[Dallas Dru]

[ QUOTE ]
But we don't care if he calls or raises sometime, as long as he folds a small amount of time, we break even. We have 10 outs to the effective nuts against this guy, and if we just call and the turn is a 10, we get like no more money in the pot. I'd take a 40/60 with all the money that's in the pot now - if he shoves, make a note of how he never folds an overpair and move on.[ QUOTE ]


this is right on

[ama0330]

thac is right in that the main reason we raise is to induce a fold. we do have outs to the nuts but it is unlikely that any more money goes in if the straight hits. the prime reason for this move is for villain to fold most of his betting range.

[Pokey]

Well, let's think about this.

Our folding equity against the fish is zero. Given that he CRAI'ed the flop we can assume we're behind, but we've probably got 8-10 outs to win. So: the pot is offering us 3-to-1 odds right now on a draw that's 4-to-1 to hit on the turn and even better by the river, with some implied odds thrown in for good measure.

I don't like a raise. What does it really accomplish? We isolate against a player who can't fold and who usually has us beaten unless we hit. If we've got to hit to win, why not keep BB around for a potential bigger score when we do hit? If we raise and get called we're definitely behind, and that means our bet gained us 1-to-1 odds on a 4-to-1 draw. Oh, and we'll still be out of position against an aggressive opponent who could easily blow us off our draw on the turn. Also, if BB three-bets us solidly we're going to hate our lives.

I like a smooth-call here. The odds that we can extract some extra value if we hit are pretty solid, and the odds that we get a free river card (or even showdown) are pretty good as well. Why push out our potential extra profit margin given that we're almost surely going to have to hit to win anyways?

[thac]

Pokey - Do you think a solid opponent is putting much more money in when the board becomes 9876, or 9865 or T986? I don't think your implied odds are as good as you make them out to be. Also, the fish just called all-in, he can definitely just have ace high here, it's not like he's got us crushed. He had one PSB left and it went in when our opponent bet the pot.

Also, I don't see us getting a free river card very often at all if we just call and the turn is a deuce or a trey.

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokey - Do you think a solid opponent is putting much more money in when the board becomes 9876, or 9865 or T986? I don't think your implied odds are as good as you make them out to be. Also, the fish just called all-in, he can definitely just have ace high here, it's not like he's got us crushed. He had one PSB left and it went in when our opponent bet the pot.

Also, I don't see us getting a free river card very often at all if we just call and the turn is a deuce or a trey.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we raise the flop and BB calls are you willing to shove UI on the turn?????

[members_only]

Surely the fact that the pot is protected cuts into your equity a lot here? If it was just you vs BB, the times you make him fold, you pick up the pot and profit immediately, but here you have to beat CO as well as that

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
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Pokey - Do you think a solid opponent is putting much more money in when the board becomes 9876, or 9865 or T986? I don't think your implied odds are as good as you make them out to be. Also, the fish just called all-in, he can definitely just have ace high here, it's not like he's got us crushed. He had one PSB left and it went in when our opponent bet the pot.

Also, I don't see us getting a free river card very often at all if we just call and the turn is a deuce or a trey.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we raise the flop and BB calls are you willing to shove UI on the turn?????

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on the opponent, but with that much extra money in the pot, probably. It's still a huge call even after he called the flop bet cause there's 2 more buyins coming in on the turn, and it's exactly how I'd play a set.. so yeah.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

Pokey - Do you think a solid opponent is putting much more money in when the board becomes 9876, or 9865 or T986?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that REALLY depends on what he's got. Some of his range will be sets, here -- 88/99/TT -- and some of it will be big overpairs. If we make a weak "blocking" turn bet of half the pot, villain could very easily get frisky and push over the top on a semibluff, letting us snap-call with the best of it. Alternately, we could check when we hit and hope that villain decides to value-bet his hand. Remember, we really don't need much more equity to make this +EV, but the more we get, the better.

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think your implied odds are as good as you make them out to be.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm not saying we're stacking villain whenever we hit. I'm just saying that the pot odds are nearly enough to make calling +EV. Even if we autofold the turn every time we miss, we only need to extract an extra 1/4th-pot from villain somewhere between the turn and river combined to make calling EV-neutral. I know he's a decent player and all, but I can't imagine not being able to get at least 1/4th-pot out of him. Oh, and if it were impossible for us to extract 1/4th-pot extra on this hand, then we're almost surely going to get a free card on the turn, which means we've got the pot odds to call immediately. One way or another, this is a +EV call.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, the fish just called all-in, he can definitely just have ace high here, it's not like he's got us crushed. He had one PSB left and it went in when our opponent bet the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

The only way I can really see fishy calling all-in with a hand that doesn't beat us is if he's got 76 or JT. The board has no flush draws and the betting has been a bit scary; do we really think fishy is calling with AJ? I mean, anything's possible, but I just don't find it likely.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, I don't see us getting a free river card very often at all if we just call and the turn is a deuce or a trey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is either aggressive enough to bet the turn and give us our implied odds or passive enough to give us a free card and sufficient pot odds to call. This "psychic villain syndrome" stuff is very tempting, but it's not realistic. After the pot is protected there is a $0 side pot; villain is going to be very hesitant to start one without a monster. Sure, if he's got 99 he's going to fire the turn, but if he's got 99 he's going to fire the turn even if we hit our straight. He can't know what we've got, so he's going to make a mistake on the turn, and whichever mistake he makes is going to make our flop play +EV.

[thac]

Pokey, I was going off of OP's assumption where he said "I am positive he has a big pair." If he has 88 or 99, yes, he'll bet the turn, but he still slows down if the obvious straight hits because even if we don't have it, we're probably not calling much more without it (MUBS syndrome basically).

Even though calling is +EV, it doesn't mean it is the most +EV line. If we call, and turn our straight in a $30 pot with $140 behind, we might make another $30-60 depending on villain.

Here are some outcomes of the hand in just pure speculation:

- If we raise to $40 on the flop it freezes up villain, and leaves us with $107 into a $90 pot. Even if villain calls here, he will sometimes fold on the turn to our overbet shove, which will net us $32.5 immediately, even without winning the main pot.

- If we turn a straight or a set after raising, we can bet like $40 or something ridiculously small and hopefully get him to call, leaving us with $67 into a $170 pot.

- If we blank on the turn and he calls our shove, we're still around 21% equity to complete our hand and if we hit, we win a $310 pot and we get all the action we could ever want from villain in future pots.


Just because calling is +EV, doesn't mean it will net us the most money in the longterm. Sure we can lose 3 buyins, but the only way to win 3 buyins is to not be scared to lose it. We want to maximize our equity with a decent hand, not limit our losses when we're taking slightly the worst of it.

[kaz2107]

i cr this hand basically everytime. this is why playin these hands oop while deep is fine. u say villian is good so if u make a not pussy raise to like 30 sumtin the pot is already out of control and basically his whole range is 1 pair hands and then a few random hands scattered in their (most of them AK type hands and then a small percent of sets and such)

never played on ipoker but a commitent villian folds here everytime give ur image and his nittyness. so then u r gettin sick odds againsts the fishes HUGE range and r in GREAT shape. looks like a pretty easy raise to me. villian just cant procede and even if he makes a bad call u have outs to the best hand n e wayz

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
i cr this hand basically everytime. this is why playin these hands oop while deep is fine. u say villian is good so if u make a not pussy raise to like 30 sumtin the pot is already out of control and basically his whole range is 1 pair hands and then a few random hands scattered in their (most of them AK type hands and then a small percent of sets and such)

never played on ipoker but a commitent villian folds here everytime give ur image and his nittyness. so then u r gettin sick odds againsts the fishes HUGE range and r in GREAT shape. looks like a pretty easy raise to me. villian just cant procede and even if he makes a bad call u have outs to the best hand n e wayz

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but you needs a spell checker.

[Jever]

[ QUOTE ]

- If we blank on the turn and he calls our shove, we're still around 21% equity to complete our hand and if we hit, we win a $310 pot and we get all the action we could ever want from villain in future pots.


[/ QUOTE ]

But only with 50$ effective stacks.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i cr this hand basically everytime. this is why playin these hands oop while deep is fine. u say villian is good so if u make a not pussy raise to like 30 sumtin the pot is already out of control and basically his whole range is 1 pair hands and then a few random hands scattered in their (most of them AK type hands and then a small percent of sets and such)

never played on ipoker but a commitent villian folds here everytime give ur image and his nittyness. so then u r gettin sick odds againsts the fishes HUGE range and r in GREAT shape. looks like a pretty easy raise to me. villian just cant procede and even if he makes a bad call u have outs to the best hand n e wayz

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but you needs a spell checker.

[/ QUOTE ]diagf... thats why i have my title so people like u wont put me down and ruin my self esteem

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- If we blank on the turn and he calls our shove, we're still around 21% equity to complete our hand and if we hit, we win a $310 pot and we get all the action we could ever want from villain in future pots.


[/ QUOTE ]

But only with 50$ effective stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a feeling you'll get deeper stacks eventually with a tight solid kinda regular (I guess he's a reg?)

[corsakh]

Thanks for all the advice guys, very much appreciated and very nice read. We definitely need more threads like this in deep spots.

There are some things perhaps I did not mention in the OP.

First, I am ahead of fishies range. He calls with a naked ace.

Second, I think there is a pretty good chance that BB is folding KK and AA to too much heat from me being this deep. But I am not sure if a single c/r going to do the job. He is probably going to call and reevaluate the turn. Which is a very tricky spot for me.

Third. He is going to have a very hard time putting me on a set since I did not raise preflop. I am very concerned that he may put me on JT or a 7 and push the flop.

Fourth. I thought the board is so scary from villains perspective and we are so deep that he is going to go for pot control on the turn no matter what card hits. This way I am buying two cards for the price of half a pot bet. I question our implied odds however, but he probably still calls a pot with QQ+ no matter if my straight hits because he knows I can be aggressive. I would not go for half a pot since it looks like a blatant value bet in my position.

[hennnerz]

What if he 3bets us on this flop? AI or whatever?

[corsakh]

We have almost 40% equity.

[netstorm]

*grunching*

I prefer a call, and a c/r(ai) on just about any turn.

I think we will have massive fold equity vs. his range. Not to mention he probably wont pay us off if we hit our straight.

Doing the stack-a-donk line vs. this regular represent a lot of strength. Villain has to put you on 2pair or a set. I doubt he will ever call you. Now you are HU with the fish and able to go to showdown, while taking down a nice sidepot. Even if you lose the mainpot, the sidepot will probably net you some profit.

Im a bit hungover, so I cant do the math right now, but this seems correct

[icheckcallu]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is sickmyduck on ipoker. Hes all right. 18/12/3, pretty solid. Positionally aware. Little weak. Straightforward. He called my 3bets a few times, I suspect JJ and AK types of hands. Does not get out of line. I run good at 19/17 and do not get out of line either - plenty of fish at the table.

iPoker
6 handed
50NL

CO $10
Hero in SB $150
Villain in BB $150

Anyway. Fold, fold. Fishy limps. I complete with 77 (was busy on other tables), Viallin raises to $2.5.

Ok, he is tight in the blinds. Very tight. I think 88 is the worst hand he raises here. I dont think he raise AJ. Maybe AQ, but I dont know. He seems to avoid pots with me recently and does not seem to be willing to play big pots even though he has position. Definetly not a steal, I think its safe to put him on a big hand here, TT+, AK type.

Fish calls. I call.

I dont want to be 3betting OOP after I completed either /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Flop comes 689r.
Ok. Whats the plan /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Hero checks. Villain pots. Fish call all in (he had pot bet left).

I am positive he has a big pair. Pot is $23. $7.5 to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
check raise flop... if he calls he has big pair. are u willing to shove turn with a draw??

[icheckcallu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This advice comes from the MSNL'er I am currently sitting next to.

You should raise this flop because you are deep and he has to fold most of his betting range (overpairs etc) to your raise. All the decisions are close in EV (raise call fold) but raising gives you the best chance to take it down.

If you were 100bb deep this would NOT be a good idea but theres almost no way that this guy is going to call you off with an overpair so deep.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can close this thread now, because this is the correct answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so fast this is the MICROS not msnl and most villains(absent a read) are not capable of folding an overpair..While I do like the advice, at the micros it's is very villain dependant...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think villain is capable of folding an overpair with those stats