Flush - Limped Pot - paired board

[ICMoney]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB - Tallpower: $64.75
BB - Hero: $69.50
dogballs1975: $51.95
Giant1957: $15.10
CRAZY CHARLIE99: $98.35
1gameface: $50.00

Reads: <font color="blue">Villian is 29/8 over 181 hands - mostly datamined.

Flop/Turn/River agression is 2.9/1.6/1.6.

This is a limped pot, so who knows??</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Tc.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Jc.gif (6 Players)
dogballs1975 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Tallpower calls $0.25, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.50) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8c.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qc.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8s.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Tallpower bets $1.00</font>, Hero calls $1.00, dogballs1975 folds

Turn: ($3.50) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8c.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qc.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8s.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/6c.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Tallpower bets $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9.50</font>, Tallpower calls $7.50

River: ($22.50) http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8c.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/Qc.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/8s.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/6c.gif http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/cards/color/7h.gif (2 Players)
Tallpower checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $13.00</font>, <font color="red">Tallpower raises to $30.00</font>

[b]Hero???
Looks like a call or fold. Not really considering a push ($23 behind after the $17).

[Nick C]

I think there's a very good chance he has a full house. Pushing would be a spew.

But I call, getting 3:1. I'm expecting to lose, but there is some chance Villain has a worse flush or Tx9c and thinks you just have slowplayed trip 8's. I suppose a hand like A8 isn't completely out of the question either.

[vixticator]

I'd push for value or fold. The difference between calling and pushing, just more money in the pot. If you think you mostly have best hand here put more in. He's not folding to your raise unless he has nothing. You have a pretty big hand. He could easily have a flush. Maybe spewing with an eight. Probably not a straight but who knows. Maybe AQ, AA, KK, very unlikely.

I think he would probably re-raise the turn if he had a full house. Bet/call, check river is terrible if he has Q8, 86, 88. Certainly plausible. So, the hand that beats you he most likely would hold is 87. He'll certainly have these hands quite a bit. But, since he basically never folds a push and you probably have the best hand I just move in...

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd push for value or fold. The difference between calling and pushing, just more money in the pot. If you think you mostly have best hand here put more in. He's not folding to your raise unless he has nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems to me that there's actually quite a difference between a call and a push. If pushing and folding were my only options, I think I would push, but we are getting about 4:1 on a call (I miscalculated before when I said 3:1), versus about 9:4 on a push.

If we really have the best hand most of the time versus Villain's non-bluffs, then, sure, we should push. But it is entirely possible calling is better than shoving. Assuming no folding equity versus better hands, if our chances of being best versus non-bluffs are anywhere between about 21-49 percent, then calling is the play.

I don't really disagree with your post very much overall, but I think the "I'd push for value or fold" opening is misleading.

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really disagree with your post very much overall, but I think the "I'd push for value or fold" opening is misleading.

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, I don't think calling is bad or anything. It's basically the same as pushing to me though. If I think I should call I want to move in. There has to be some amount of the time he would fold something like a King high flush, obv super low. Or, misclick fold heh. It's only half a buy-in, right? Not like it's a ton more.

Would you push with nut flush?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you push with nut flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest, it would probably depend on my mood at the time.

River checkraises scare me in general. And also it seems as if I've been running into the absolute nuts a disproportionate amount of the time lately, so my perception may be a little warped at the moment.

[Berky]

vomit then call.