10NL - Straight w/ river scare card + huge river bet

[ev_slave]

Reads: Villain (Button) has made a few dubious plays, doesn't seem to be very solid. Over the 202 hands I have on him he's 25.25/20.79/3.64, but I don't remember the exact stats at the moment this hand played out.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $9.90
CO: $5
Button: $11.75
SB: $16.20
BB: $4.75

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif ($0.95, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.6</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($2.15, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2.5</font>, Button calls.

River: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif ($7.15, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ?</font>.

Thought process...

PF - raise up 55 since most peeps at this level don't play 55 this way, implied odds will be juicy if I hit.

Flop - A pretty good flop for me... I don't think the flop is in his neighborhood, plus I have an OESD and my 55 is probably the best hand if I don't get raised, so I do my standard 2/3 pot C-Bet. I think he calls thinking I whiffed the flop w/ overs and maybe he can take it away from me later.

Turn - I hit my straight, I doubt he has it but if he has 58 I'm willing to go broke. I have 2 of his possible outs, so I pretty much discount any made straight. I make a PSB to protect against draw.

River - Flush (and random boat) gets there, so I check it since I don't think he will call very much with nothing, but this gives him a chance to bluff. If worse comes to worse I get to showdown with a good hand on a fairly scary board. When he fires the $7 (nearly PSB), I get pretty nervous, but the more I think of it, the more I feel I have the best hand. His story that he rivered the flush doesn't make much sense (having taken bad odds on all streets) and I never put him on a set, so I'm thinking this is villain bluffing the scare card. I'm 95% this is a call. Anyone disagree?

[ispiked]

I would agree with you that a set seems out of his range here. He would probably raise that on the flop or the turn. To me, it seems like some sort of AcXc hand that hit the flop in some way is what's likely here.

I guess he could have some sort of mediocre overpair here (88-TT), but his river bet just seems pretty odd for that. IMO, the only thing you're really beating here is A5o or something. From my experience, people aren't betting this big here unless they have a boat or a flush.

[ev_slave]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, the only thing you're really beating here is A5o or something. From my experience, people aren't betting this big here unless they have a boat or a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm also beating a bluff, which is what this is looking like. I built up a pot, he called along thinking I was marginal, and then when I seem to give up or get scared on the river he tries to scoop it. Even if he isn't bluffing, he's got to be thinking that extra 6 didn't help me (he's right), so maybe he's pushing some kind of two pair here?

Also, I'm not ahead of A5o. We're splitting it.

[Nick C]

This is a tough river. Villain has taken a lot of heat, it's true, but overs+flush draw really very much does seem like a hand he's do that with.

What else are we putting him on that we beat? An overpair is all I can think of. And a Villain with those stats probably would have 3-bet AA-QQ preflop, if not JJ.

JJ-88 is actually quite a few combos considering that his XcXc hands shouldn't really be that plentiful, but there are also some slowplayed sets to worry about.

Probably I call and pray, but it seems close to me.