50 NL , does this look like a set?

[llamage]

no history with villain, he just sat down,
I folded this because his turn bet indicates a lot of strength...is this too nitty?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($57.50)
Hero ($96.15)
CO ($50.85)
Button ($128.70)
SB ($48.50)
BB ($66.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $9</font>, Hero calls $5.50.

Turn: ($22.75) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $18</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $22.75

[Chicago Twister]

With such a low board he could also have an overpair like 88-JJ. Plus the 5 coming on the turn reduces the number of sets he could have. I'd push AA-QQ here, fold the rest.

[AZplaya]

meh, I don't tend to give unknown all that much credit and this could easily be 88-JJ. Flip a coin, but if you fold be prepared to puke when you discover he's a spewtard.

[n4rf]

You didn't necessarily scream "I HAVE AN OVERPAIR" with your raise since there was no 3bet/4bet. He could put you on AK or AQ etc, not AA.

That check on the river made you look ultra weak and I think it was way too conservative to just fold.

[llamage]

After sitting at the table some more, hes shown hes a decent TAG. I think I made the right decision. This may be 88-JJ, but the I think he would've 3bet in position with 10 10 - JJ. The only hands im beating are 88-99. I think I made the right decision here.

[nutstoyou]

It looks to me more like an overpair than a set. Since you have AA you could have been in good shape. With no flush or straight draws, a lot of players with a set would have just called your flop bet, then raised you on the turn if you bet again or bet the turn if you didn't.

I would have called the turn bet and check called the river.

[AZplaya]

[ QUOTE ]
After sitting at the table some more, hes shown hes a decent TAG. I think I made the right decision. This may be 88-JJ, but the I think he would've 3bet in position with 10 10 - JJ. The only hands im beating are 88-99. I think I made the right decision here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't play PS $50 but I know on FTP assuming an unknown is a solid tag who 3 bets in pozz and doesn't felt light is lol. If you assume you made the right play because he has now shown to be a solid player is results oriented.

[Nick Royale]

I 3-bet the flop and get it in.

Fwiw that turn card was good for us, given the flop call I shove the turn.

[DaycareInferno]

this is an ovepair/7x/draw much more often than it is a set. on the flop, any pair 7 or better is going to want to protect themselves from overcards on the turn. its also a decent flop to bluff, because its no help to most of your raising range. his turn bet means nothing, because 90% of the time when you check the turn there you're going to get a bet out of anything that raised you on the flop, especially with such a brick there.

[kurto]

With absolutely no read you hae to add a HUGE amount of possibilities here, from overpairs, to the nutstraight, two pair.. to complete bluffs.

I mean... if this guy is a 70/2/.5 kind of player, he could have the nutstraight.

If he's a 12/3/.5 -- a set is looking more likely

if he's a 28/4/8 kind of player... he could have any one pair or a gutshot straight draw.

I agree with others that he will often autobet regardless of what he has when you check the turn.

that being said, I tend to be more conservative prior to getting a read or some numbers on a player. That's a very coordinated board. I don't know that you're ahead MOST of the time here against MOST players since I think most micro players aren't raising most players with midpairs.

[llamage]

good point about being results oriented, well I can't really say hes a good solid TAG since he hasn't gone to showdown that much

[Cheetah]

It doesn't look like a set to me. Why would he play it so fast?
He may have overpair, perhaps 67s, 78, or some draw.
In all those cases, he would think you probably missed the flop and are just trying to steal it.

When you checked the turn, his bet was almost automatic.

Regardless of the specific read, I disagree with the $5.50 call on the flop because you are OOP. There is little chance your hand will improve on the turn. So if the intention is to check-fold on the turn, then you should have folded on the flop.

I would have probably re-raised him on the flop. Since pot is already close to $17 after his raise on the flop, all-in is probably best. If you are right more than 2/3 of the time, all-in re-raise would be correct. If you are not that confident, fold on the flop and save $5.50. There is no room for any other re-raise, because he only has about $30+ left.