Top Top, Chop Chop?

[Chicago Twister]

My read here was that he only has AK/KK+. Questions are how reasonable is that read, and given this read should I have played preflop or flop differently? Matt Flynn or Sunny might have something to say about this, and if they do I'd love to hear it...

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $50.75
BB: $51.55
UTG: $52.25
Hero (CO): $54.20
BTN: $48.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $6.75</font>, Hero calls $4.75

Flop: ($13.75) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $11.50</font>, Hero calls $11.50

Turn: ($36.75) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets all-in for $33.30</font>, Hero

[kelvinsense]

I think I would fold preflop since you are oop.

but I don't think you can call the flop/turn here. At most you are hoping to chop, but he has two hands that will beat you (KK,AA) do you have any stats on villain?

[orange]

I would call the turn. You're beat by AA only and if he has a 3/22 then whatever. Also if your read is AK/KK+, why call PF? Doesn't make much sense imo.

Anyhoo, calling one street with TPTK and folding to a nice turn is spewy. Fold PF if you are folding in this spot.

[Prodigy54321]

[ QUOTE ]
My read here was that he only has AK/KK+.

[/ QUOTE ]

errr, what? why?

hellz yeah call the turn

[KEW]

Without a read villain range is way wider then AK/KK+...If his range was that narrow why call PF...TPTK in a 3 bet pot=the nutz...

[CubicZirconia]

Your call on the flop puts 35% of your starting stack into the pot. If you call on the flop, you have to be committed to go all the way.

If you're not willing to commit here given the stack sizes, you probably should have folded preflop. After all, what were you hoping for? Trips or better?

[Phildo]

[ QUOTE ]
My read here was that he only has AK/KK+.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you have stats on the guy?

[john voight]

I got quetsions: is calling PF here a spew? Fit or miss seems lame, but I admit, its a line I take alot when deeper than 100bb.

I'd say you should raise the flop. He is usually not betting KKK this hard unless he is a grinder, plus you have a K, so IMO KK is totally unlikely. Narrowing his range to 99+ and AK and AQ.

I guess if he is really agro (smart) you might wanna smooth call and hope he double barrels, but I am usually repoping on flop b/c I don't want random hands like Kx to suckout, plus most ppl dont double barel bluff OOP.

IMO your AK is way ahead of most unknows ranges. You really need to know your opponent to put him on AA so easily,

[kelvinsense]

If Villain has anything less than TPTK , why would he keep betting? If you call that flop, you have to put it in on the flop since nothing really changed. But I would fold preflop/flop here.

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call the turn. You're beat by AA only and if he has a 3/22 then whatever. Also if your read is AK/KK+, why call PF? Doesn't make much sense imo.

Anyhoo, calling one street with TPTK and folding to a nice turn is spewy. Fold PF if you are folding in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Orange, I didn't have his range narrowed down that far preflop. Preflop his range was wider than AK/KK+, although he was not a total moron. What I did know was that if the flop came like it did and the action was like it was, he could only have TPTK or better.

This doesn't necessarily mean I should fold preflop, in fact it might mean I should push preflop.

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My read here was that he only has AK/KK+.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you have stats on the guy?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't do stats. My reads are based on direct observation.

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't do stats. My reads are based on direct observation.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, fair enough. But when did you firm up on your AA/KK/AK read? Preflop when he re-raised you? If so, you know you have to fold right there, don't you?

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
My read here was that he only has AK/KK+

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.75, Hero calls $4.75

[/ QUOTE ]

I read some threads and just can't understand why I am still not a billionaire.

[Nemesis69]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My read here was that he only has AK/KK+

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.75, Hero calls $4.75

[/ QUOTE ]

I read some threads and just can't understand why I am still not a billionaire.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a thing called variance.

[corsakh]

More like an episode from forrest gump:

- His name's Forrest.
- Like me.
- I named him after his daddy.
- He got a daddy named Forrest, too?

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My read here was that he only has AK/KK+

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.75, Hero calls $4.75

[/ QUOTE ]

I read some threads and just can't understand why I am still not a billionaire.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats not even a one-liner, do you have anything useful to add?

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]

Thats not even a one-liner, do you have anything useful to add?

[/ QUOTE ]

Answer the question then: when did you get this AK/KK+ read?

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Thats not even a one-liner, do you have anything useful to add?

[/ QUOTE ]

Answer the question then: when did you get this AK/KK+ read?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well like I said in my reply to Orange, preflop I didn't have his range at AK/KK+. It was wider than that, at the very least QQ+ and maybe even more pairs and even some thinner stuff like 98s. Up until this point :

SB: $50.75
BB: $51.55
UTG: $52.25
Hero (CO): $54.20
BTN: $48.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A K (5 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.75, Hero

he still has a number of different hands. However I know a few things about his postflop tendancies. One of those things is that he won't pot the flop and then pot the turn with just a draw. So if he pots the flop and then pots the turn, he has TPTK+. Even when he pots the flop he still has more than TPTK+, he might even have something he is "bluffing" with like QQ or JJ. In those cases he won't bet again on the turn, but he also wont call when I push the flop so I didnt see any value there.

[nutstoyou]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Thats not even a one-liner, do you have anything useful to add?

[/ QUOTE ]

Answer the question then: when did you get this AK/KK+ read?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well like I said in my reply to Orange, preflop I didn't have his range at AK/KK+. It was wider than that, at the very least QQ+ and maybe even more pairs and even some thinner stuff like 98s. Up until this point :

SB: $50.75
BB: $51.55
UTG: $52.25
Hero (CO): $54.20
BTN: $48.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A K (5 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.75, Hero

he still has a number of different hands. However I know a few things about his postflop tendancies. One of those things is that he won't pot the flop and then pot the turn with just a draw. So if he pots the flop and then pots the turn, he has TPTK+. Even when he pots the flop he still has more than TPTK+, he might even have something he is "bluffing" with like QQ or JJ. In those cases he won't bet again on the turn, but he also wont call when I push the flop so I didnt see any value there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that when he leads after the flop with this board, then this means he has AA, KK AK and that this player wouldn't lead into this flop with QQ, JJ, etc. - that he would check instead.

If that's the case and you're confident in your read, then I think calling preflop was fine but after you saw the flop and he bet you had to fold because your best case is a split pot.

[Kasane]

There's 3 AA combo's and 6 AK. I think we can assume this isn't the lone KK combo left, as he most likely wouldn't have pushed with the nuts hoping you have a draw to draw to.

This means that 6 out of nine times we get net $18, and 3 out of nine we lose 33 (let's forget that we suck out sometimes). Run it nine times and we end up with 108 - 99or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

396 games 0.005 secs 79,200 games/sec

Board: 3h 2h Kd 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.848% 01.52% 33.33% 6 132.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 65.152% 31.82% 33.33% 126 132.00 { AA, AKs, AKo }


Which is about right equity wise, since we need 33% equity for 2-1 on our money, and we're getting a bit better than that. I don't think any villain's range is this tight on a push, could be AQhh sometimes, QQ sometimes. Just toss in one or two of those:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

528 games 0.005 secs 105,600 games/sec

Board: 3h 2h Kd 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.864% 23.86% 25.00% 126 132.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 51.136% 26.14% 25.00% 138 132.00 { AA, QcQd, QdQh, AKs, AhQh, AKo }

I think 2 QQ combos are enough to compensate for a bunch of other silly stuff that you're beating. Remember, your flat call on the flop will rep a draw to many people. It's a good way to play AK here, as your opponent will rarely have a draw himself.

Note: if you put KK in his range, and don't add anything else but AK, KK+, it's a clear fold -- but I just don't see it. If the board hadn't paired, we would have to put it in.

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that when he leads after the flop with this board, then this means he has AA, KK AK and that this player wouldn't lead into this flop with QQ, JJ, etc. - that he would check instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he would lead this flop with almost anything, including draws &amp; cbets. But he would not lead the turn with less than TPTK+.

[Leviathan101]

4 bet preflop please, unless you really do think his range is just is literally like QQ+, AK. If so just fold. And with 2:1 on your money you have to call the turn. calling the flop commits you to the hand. if he ever shows you like KQ here or even QQ or a flush draw this is profitable.

[jtr]

Wow. That's an incredibly specific read, but if you have confidence in your model of his postflop behaviour then you have to fold the turn don't you? You're either splitting with AK or losing to AA/KK and the EV figures don't work out for a call. (I assume you disagree with a previous poster who wants to rule out KK from the guy's range because of his betting pattern?)

More broadly though I just don't think that your theory about his strategy could ever be quite so precise. Could he ever have KQs for example? That would change everything.

[AZplaya]

this hand plays out so much easier if you just get it in pre

[Lordy]

Board: 3h 2h Kd 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.364% 01.36% 30.00% 6 132.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 68.636% 38.64% 30.00% 170 132.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


Calling is nearly 0EV if he never shoves worse (assuming 22/3x isnt in his pre-flop range), this is a pretty easy call.

You're basically burning money by folding TPTK here. He's going to show up with a /images/graemlins/heart.gif draw or a worse king at least some % of the time.

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 3h 2h Kd 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.364% 01.36% 30.00% 6 132.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 68.636% 38.64% 30.00% 170 132.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


Calling is nearly 0EV if he never shoves worse (assuming 22/3x isnt in his pre-flop range), this is a pretty easy call.

You're basically burning money by folding TPTK here. He's going to show up with a /images/graemlins/heart.gif draw or a worse king at least some % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling to chop here, using your numbers above, is extremely -EV. You are probably not accounting for the fact that when you do chop, you get only half the pot. The effect is profoundly negative:

EV = .3(70.05/2) + .01(70.05) - .69(33.3)
= 10.51 + 0.70 - 22.09
= -11.77

[Kasane]

Hey, Chicago, aren't we chopping about 60% of the time? Not 30%. It's closer to EV neutral to call.

There 6 AK combos, one KK, and 3 AA in the deck for your turn range. I think that's right.