set of fours in blind battle vs total unknown

[Che]

Villain is playing his first hand at my UB$50NL table. He sat with $50 and I cover.

I have 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and open-complete the SB after 3 folds. Villain checks.

Flop 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet $1. Villain calls.

Turn 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet $3. Villain calls.

River Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet $9. Villain raises to $18 fairly quickly and has $27.50 behind.

Call, raise or push?

thanks,
Che

[CPFB]

Let me preface my comments by saying that I play 10NL and am moving up to 25NL this month.

Let's see what beats us.

66
JJ
QQ
52
75

I think we can safely say he doesn't hold JJ or QQ as he would have raised those hands preflop.

Your typical player is going to raise 66 when he hits his set. If he doesn't raise the flop, he should raise the turn. In short, I don't see 66 being played this way.

52 would probably get folded on the flop, depending upon the looseness of the player.

75 probably raises the turn because of the dual flush draws.

In short, I think we're most definitely ahead and we should raise. A push is probably best. If he's calling a raise, he's calling a push and we want a call since we're most likely ahead.

Looking at the action, his most likely hands are AQ and QJ.

Push and see the pot pushed your way.

**

Please correct me if I'm way off.

[KEW]

RAISE PF...

As played 3 bet shove the river...

[john voight]

Raise pf.
when you limp you prolly check fold flop when missed, really reduced compared to the value you gain when cbetting.

i might check raise river w/ reads vs a spewer. But vs unknown I just lead and reluctantly push and lose to 57.

[Prodigy54321]

[ QUOTE ]
RAISE PF...

As played 3 bet shove the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

[danicalifornia]

All the money goes in on that river as he has QJ here a lot of the time

[Rounder101]

Is this the same CHE that got into a nice discussion on some tourney forum??
To be honest I probably make the weak play and just call. If we 3b, I just dont know how much value we might be getting out, quick minraises usually are bluffs or nutz, so if we raise he dumps practically everything we might beat except QJ, but calls everything that beats us.

[Nick C]

I push but am not shocked if I lose.

But there are all sorts of two-pair hands Villain could have made on the river or slowplayed (he started with any two cards), and you also beat 33.

Meanwhile, it is unfortunately hard to discount 52 or 75 too much, which is why I'm not going to be shocked if I lose. I suppose the quickness of the river raise suggests he already had his hand on the turn, too, if he's not bluffing now.

[ryang]

please raise pf and dont fold sets

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
please raise pf and dont fold sets


[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop: I agree that raise is the default play, but I decided to just call this time. Why did I not use the default play against a complete unknown? I don't remember and it probably wouldn't be a good explanation even if I did. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

River: Folding was never an option (see the question I asked).

Like rounder I figured monster or bluff when the dude minraises the river so I just called. Later, I decided that I was probably being weak since there are so few hands that beat me and so many two pair hands that do not beat me (but an unknown $50 player would play as monsters). So, I decided to post the hand to see if my river analysis was good or not.

Result: Villain had QTo. I win.

[ QUOTE ]
Is this the same CHE that got into a nice discussion on some tourney forum??

[/ QUOTE ]

The same. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I have decided to try to reduce the variance in my profits so I am moving away from MTT's and trying to learn to play cash games (which I have never been very good at). I have learned a ton the last few weeks but I still have a long way to go.

Thanks for all the kind replies to (what I think is) my first post in this forum. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Later,
Che