AA facing passive resistance.. What's the best line on the river?

[wooziephantom]

Full Tilt Poker Game #3714023577: Table Your (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:19:59 ET - 2007/09/30
Seat 1: CO (villain)($24.40)
Seat 2: BTN ($21.25)
Seat 3: SB ($44.80)
Seat 4: BB ($23.55)
Seat 5: UTG ($34.95), is sitting out
Seat 6: MP (Hero) ($33.70)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif]
Hero raises to $1
Villain calls $1
2 folds
BB calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif]
BB checks
Hero bets $2.40
Villain calls $2.40
BB folds
*** TURN *** [4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif] [K /images/graemlins/club.gif]
Hero bets $6
Villain calls $6
*** RIVER *** [4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif] [6 /images/graemlins/club.gif]
Hero???
Think Villain was getting tired of me raising a lot and stealing pots on the flop with c-bets (only played like 30 hands, but been active). The texture of the flop gets me weary of a villain holding a set (But do not have solid reads). Is it possible he floated with something like kq or that he had an overpair on the flop? Which line is better; c/c, ai or a block bet or c/f?

[cheops32]

i think check call. villain shows no strenght at all. With the information you give i would put villain on a middle pp 99/TT 66 but that wouls be nasty

[whyzze]

check call is bad. Its b/f (depends on stack sizes) or c/f.

How many worse hands are betting this river? If villian is fed up he may look us up with a 7, or a king. However, I think its very likely he just made 2pr/straight.

I think its very close between c/f and b/f $7-9ish.

I think I prefer b/f with this read.

[wooziephantom]

He's got 15 left, betting 9 and folding to a push? I think that is bad with effective stacks...

[whyzze]

if thats the case then I prefer a c/f

[Waingro]

You got 3/4 pot left, just shove it in. Villain will call with a lot of hands you beat. Villain will not just call with a set, it is a very small part of his range. Against your typical opponent at this level you lose an enormous amount of value by not betting your very good hands in fear of the nuts. On this board with AA it is not even close.

[wooziephantom]

[ QUOTE ]
You got 3/4 pot left, just shove it in. Villain will call with a lot of hands you beat. Villain will not just call with a set, it is a very small part of his range. Against your typical opponent at this level you lose an enormous amount of value by not betting your very good hands in fear of the nuts. On this board with AA it is not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did push my stack in, afterwards I realized that this was probably the worst line I could have taken.. I don't think Villain calls with worse hands, so effectively turning my hand in to a bluff. He called and showed a set of threes.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You got 3/4 pot left, just shove it in. Villain will call with a lot of hands you beat. Villain will not just call with a set, it is a very small part of his range. Against your typical opponent at this level you lose an enormous amount of value by not betting your very good hands in fear of the nuts. On this board with AA it is not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did push my stack in, afterwards I realized that this was probably the worst line I could have taken.. I don't think Villain calls with worse hands, so effectively turning my hand in to a bluff. He called and showed a set of threes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have any particularly good options on the river. The card that fell does kind of suck, but check-folding your overpair when you'll be getting a little better than 2:1 versus even a push seems wrong. I mean, by now Villain should suspect that his 22 or 99 probably isn't good, so he might try a bluff with those hands if he got this far with them. But usually when he pushes, I think you'll be facing a set, two pair, or a straight.

Meanwhile, a river bet might finally convince Villain that his worse PP is no good. I do think Villain will call with Kx, but as you pointed out, he would have had to float you on the flop to have that hand, which is possible (especially if your suspicion that Villain is getting frustrated with you is correct) but is still not my first thought.

Blocking here won't work; Villain is not going to just call with a set or straight, and do you really want to bet, say, $7 and then fold for $9 more, getting like 5:1? From what I've seen lately, river bluff-raises are gaining in popularity in the micros, and if Villain happens to have Kx, he might not even think he's bluffing, especially in the face of a weak-looking blocking bet.

Checking does give Villain the opportunity to bet smallish with his sets/straights/two-pair hands out of fear you'll fold, and also it gives him the chance to make some weak bluff with a hand he wouldn't have called a push with. So those are the main arguments for checking, but I wouldn't really count on Villain to let you off easy with his strong hands.

So I'm back to saying that this is just an uncomfortable river for you and I'm not thrilled by any of your options. Personally, though, I would be playing for stacks at this point, if necessary.

[Waingro]

I think you are just a little results oriented. If you changed your cards to lets say AQo and if you asked if this river was a good spot to shove all in as a bluff, you wouldn´t get responses that said that villain is sure to fold every single one pair hand. Quite the opposite. Or are saying that because villain called 2 streets he has one pair beat >35%? That doesn´t seem right either. I think you just got unlucky and if you regularily check this river against loose passives you are giving up tons of value. Trust me on this, villains calls a push with one pair (or less) a lot.

Also, villain won´t bet worse hands very often, so unless you plan to check fold to any bet you get more value out of a bet than a call. And the pot is already big so you would probably get a good price to call in the end. A check fold is a viable option with a proper read but a check call is the worst option.

[wooziephantom]

The issue for me here is the texture of the flop.. Many times with AA it's standard to bet three streets and expect to be ahead. When he calls this turn I don't quite see what I can beat..

[john voight]

bet. IMO villain has to have some stones to check call w/ a set/2pair 3x in a row.

You beat a float that paired the K, as well as PP's that didnt hit set. And I think all of those hands are calling here.

[wooziephantom]

[ QUOTE ]
bet. IMO villain has to have some stones to check call w/ a set/2pair 3x in a row.

You beat a float that paired the K, as well as PP's that didnt hit set. And I think all of those hands are calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think all pocket pairs from 88 will call here? I really don't think so...