25nl; folded overpair to 3bet on flop.

[Schiester]

$0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker (http://www.legopoker.com) Hand History Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

Villan is 14/8/1.8(67)

SB: $20.34
BB: $45.21
Hero (UTG): $23.50
CO: $25.95
BTN: $47.16

Preflop: Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $1.00, SB folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.10) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $2.75</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $44.21</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $54.31

This almost has to be a set right?
Problem with hand as played?

[Nick C]

It seems all right to me.

If Villain's stats after 67 hands are representative of his play, then he probably bases a big part of his game on playing for sets.

A hand like Td9d or Ad9d is possible, but Villain seems rather tight, so I wouldn't actually expect him to play those hands versus a raise preflop.

Edit: Er, come to think of it, hands like KdQd and AdQd are also possible. This doesn't mean you should call the flop push, but it does make me wonder a little about the initial raise. BB's bet is big enough that it'll put pressure on a lot of Button's holdings on its own, and chances are one of three things is going on with regard to your hand versus BB's: (1) you're way ahead, (2) you're way behind, or (3) you're an approximate coinflip. I doubt he's going to bet/3-bet many hands you're way ahead of, but if he'll bet/3-bet his sets and his big draws, then it puts you in an awkward spot when you face that push.

That said, just calling has its own drawbacks if you're not sure Villain will check his worse hands when you call the flop. So I'm back to where I started, which is that I think you played it fine.

[Trogdor!]

It doesnt have to be a set, its a draw/combo draw most of the time

Sure when it is a set you are crushed and only moderate favorite/coinflip the other times but you only need 30% equity to call. +EV call imo

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesnt have to be a set, its a draw/combo draw most of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

From what I can gather reading this forum, what you're saying will be the case if Villain is a 2+2er.

If those stats of his are legit though instead of reflecting a run of bad cards, then I wonder if the set vs. strong draw ratio is going to tilt toward the sets for this Villain.